Menu

Playoff Bracket · 8-Man Football UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 8Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 11:34 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Valley Christian (Oshkosh), 94.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Valley Chris…ES 95%8 Green Bay N.E.W. Luth…ES pick: Palmyra-Eagle, 96.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Palmyra-EagleES 97%5 Almond-BancroftES pick: Owen-Withee, 99.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Owen-WitheeES 99%6 Port EdwardsES pick: Assumption, 96.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 AssumptionES 97%7 Lake HolcombeES pick: Valley Christian (Oshkosh), 89.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Valley Chris…ES 90%4 Palmyra-Eagle3 Owen-WitheeES pick: Assumption, 51.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 AssumptionES 52%ES pick: Valley Christian (Oshkosh), 52.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Valley Chris…ES 52%2 AssumptionES pick: Gilman, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 GilmanES 100%8 Frederic4 FlambeauES pick: Lena/Saint Thomas Aquinas, 69.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Lena/Saint T…ES 70%3 Turtle LakeES pick: Athens, 71.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 AthensES 72%ES pick: Hurley, 97.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 HurleyES 97%7 BruceES pick: Gilman, 98.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 GilmanES 98%5 Lena/Saint Thomas Aqu…6 AthensES pick: Hurley, 53.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 HurleyES 54%ES pick: Gilman, 98.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 GilmanES 98%2 HurleyES pick: Belmont, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BelmontES 100%8 Wild RoseES pick: Clear Lake, 97.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Clear LakeES 98%5 Tri-CountyES pick: North Crawford, 77.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 North Crawfo…ES 77%6 OakfieldES pick: De Soto, 55.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 De SotoES 56%7 ThorpES pick: Belmont, 87.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BelmontES 88%4 Clear LakeES pick: North Crawford, 62.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 North Crawfo…ES 62%2 De SotoES pick: Belmont, 89.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BelmontES 89%3 North CrawfordES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 96.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Wabeno/LaonaES 97%8 Three Lakes/PhelpsES pick: Northwood/Solon Springs, 92.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Northwood/So…ES 92%5 Rib LakeES pick: Sevastopol, 96.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 SevastopolES 96%6 NiagaraES pick: Suring, 93.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 SuringES 93%7 Elkhart Lake-Glenbeul…ES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 83.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Wabeno/LaonaES 84%4 Northwood/Solon Sprin…3 SevastopolES pick: Suring, 54.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 SuringES 55%ES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 62.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Wabeno/LaonaES 63%2 Suring1 Valley ChristianES pick: Gilman, 91.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 GilmanES 91%State semifinalES pick: Belmont, 79.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 BelmontES 80%1 Wabeno/LaonaState semifinalES pick: Gilman, 80.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 GilmanES 81%1 BelmontState final · ES pick: GilmanRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

The eight-player qualifying season has ended. This is our current unofficial comparison, not a new forecast or the saved pre-reveal snapshot.

8-man football · Week 8 field and cut line

Table-only view →

Since week 7: in Three Lakes/Phelps (33 → 31) · out Alma Center Lincoln (31 → 33). Biggest climbs: Turtle Lake ▲7, Oakfield ▲6, Bruce ▲5. Biggest drops: Athens ▼4, Niagara ▼4, Elkhart Lake-Glenbeulah ▼4.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected Seed
1–Belmont checkBelmont17.891-C
2–Gilman checkGilman16.241-B
3▲1Valley Christian (Oshkosh) checkOshkosh14.621-A
4▲2Wabeno/Laona check14.511-D
5▼2Hurley checkHurley14.402-B
6▼1Suring checkSuring12.532-D
7–Assumption checkWisconsin Rapids12.492-A
8▲1De Soto checkDe Soto12.082-C
9▼1Sevastopol checkSturgeon Bay11.963-D
10▲3Owen-Withee checkOwen10.573-A
11▼1North Crawford checkSoldiers Grove10.253-C
12▲7Turtle Lake checkTurtle Lake9.383-B
13▼2Clear Lake checkClear Lake9.004-C
14▼2Palmyra-Eagle checkPalmyra8.934-A
15–Northwood/Solon Springs check8.734-D
16–Flambeau checkTony7.954-B
17▼3Tri-County checkPlainfield7.315-C
18–Almond-Bancroft checkAlmond7.315-A
19▲2Rib Lake checkRib Lake7.165-D
20▲3Lena/Saint Thomas Aquinas check6.795-B
21▼4Athens checkAthens6.416-B
22–Port Edwards checkPort Edwards6.076-A
23▲6Oakfield checkOakfield5.856-C
24▼4Niagara checkNiagara5.666-D
25▲5Bruce checkBruce5.307-B
26▲2Thorp checkThorp5.297-C
27▼2Lake Holcombe checkHolcombe5.257-A
28▼4Elkhart Lake-Glenbeulah checkElkhart Lake4.667-D
29▼3Green Bay N.E.W. Lutheran/Providence Academy (Green Bay) check4.588-A
30▼3Frederic checkFrederic4.138-B
31▲2Three Lakes/Phelps check3.758-D in
32–Wild Rose checkWild Rose3.418-C
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼2Alma Center Lincoln checkBelow cut lineAlma Center3.38Below cut line dropped
34▲2New Auburn checkBelow cut lineNew Auburn3.00Below cut line
35▼1Washburn checkBelow cut lineWashburn2.65Below cut line
36▲7Wausaukee checkBelow cut lineWausaukee2.63Below cut line
37–Williams Bay checkBelow cut lineWilliams Bay2.36Below cut line
38▼3Highland checkBelow cut lineHighland2.32Below cut line
39▼1Mellen checkBelow cut lineMellen1.89Below cut line
40▲1Pembine/Goodman checkBelow cut line1.51Below cut line
41▼2Siren checkBelow cut lineSiren1.50Below cut line
42▲3Chequamegon checkBelow cut linePark Falls1.50Below cut line
43▼3Elcho/White Lake checkBelow cut line1.50Below cut line
44–Princeton/Green Lake checkBelow cut line1.20Below cut line
45▼3Cornell checkBelow cut lineCornell1.13Below cut line
46T▼1Luck checkBelow cut lineLuck0.75Below cut line
46T▼1Prentice checkBelow cut linePrentice0.75Below cut line
48–Newman Catholic checkBelow cut lineWausau0.75Below cut line
49–Wayland Academy checkBelow cut lineBeaver Dam0.41Below cut line
50T–Florence checkBelow cut lineFlorence0.38Below cut line
50T–Gibraltar checkBelow cut lineFish Creek0.38Below cut line
50T–Winter/Birchwood checkBelow cut line0.38Below cut line
50T–Wonewoc-Center checkBelow cut lineWonewoc0.38Below cut line
54–Oneida Nation checkBelow cut lineOneida0.00Below cut line
—Iola-Scandinavia checkIola15.50Excluded
—Shell Lake check3-year enrollment average 204Shell Lake13.70Excluded
—Abundant Life Christian/Saint Ambrose check3-year enrollment average 28912.41Excluded
—Rosholt checkRosholt12.18Excluded
—Clayton/Prairie Farm check3-year enrollment average 21112.00Excluded
—Algoma check3-year enrollment average 220Algoma7.62Excluded
—Phillips check3-year enrollment average 201Phillips6.38Excluded
—Marion/Tigerton check3-year enrollment average 2115.19Excluded
—Kickapoo/La Farge check3-year enrollment average 2294.70Excluded
—St. John's Northwestern check3-year enrollment average 350Delafield3.90Excluded
—Wisconsin Heights check3-year enrollment average 229Mazomanie1.14Excluded
—Bowler/Gresham check0.00Excluded
—Gillett checkGillett0.00Excluded
—Menominee Nation check3-year enrollment average 368Keshena0.00Excluded
—Montello check3-year enrollment average 216Montello0.00Excluded
—Monticello checkMonticello0.00Excluded
—South Shore checkPort Wing0.00Excluded

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 8 (games dated Friday 2026-10-09 or earlier; WIAA deadline: completion before 11:59 p.m. Central; stored dates do not establish finish times). 32 of 54 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: 3.0 for an 8-player school, 3.3 for one whose three-year enrollment average is over 200. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 8).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 8). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 8 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 8 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 8 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 8. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Belmont (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-20Kickapoo/La FargeW3.33.3015.308yes
2026-08-28OakfieldW33.0015.608yes
2026-09-04Wonewoc-CenterW (forfeit)3———Not counted: this forfeit win was replaced by the more favorable win on 2026-09-04 (regulations 3h).
2026-09-04Tri-CountyW (Seeding Only)33.0012.008yes. Replacement win counted instead of the forfeit win over Wonewoc-Center that week (more favorable, regulations 3h). Tier 2 credit: Tri-County's Tier 1 points less the forfeit win it kept that week (3.3).
2026-09-11Wisconsin HeightsW3.33.306.008yes
2026-09-18MonticelloW (forfeit)3———Not counted: this forfeit win was replaced by the more favorable win on 2026-09-18 (regulations 3h).
2026-09-18Iola-ScandinaviaW (Seeding Only)33.0021.308yes. Replacement win counted instead of the forfeit win over Monticello that week (more favorable, regulations 3h).
2026-09-25North CrawfordW33.0018.607yes
2026-10-02De SotoW33.0018.608yes
2026-10-08HighlandW33.009.308yes

Tier 1 AVG = 24.60 ÷ 8 = 3.075. Tier 2 points = 15.30 + 15.60 + 12.00 + 6.00 + 21.30 + 18.60 + 18.60 + 9.30 = 116.70; opponents’ games = 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 7 + 8 + 8 = 63; Tier 2 AVG = 116.70 ÷ 63 = 1.852. Total = 3.075 + 8 × 1.852 = 17.89 (Tier 3 tie-break 5.48).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

WIAA Football Playoff Brackets: Official and Projected | Ewert Sports | Ewert Sports