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Playoff Bracket · 8-Man Football UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 3Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 10:19 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

Unresolved tie: Chequamegon and Lake Holcombe and Niagara and Prentice and Siren (rank 32, seed #8). Tied at rank 32, on the cut line: WIAA breaks the tie by Tier 3 and then its own procedure, so neither team is placed here. Their slots are left empty.

ES pick: Assumption, 96.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AssumptionES 96%8 New AuburnES pick: Owen-Withee, 84.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Owen-WitheeES 84%5 Athens3 Green Bay N.E.W. Luth…ES pick: Alma Center Lincoln, 75.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Alma Center…ES 75%ES pick: Sevastopol, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 SevastopolES 98%7 Port EdwardsES pick: Assumption, 51.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AssumptionES 52%4 Owen-Withee6 Alma Center LincolnES pick: Sevastopol, 66.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 SevastopolES 66%ES pick: Assumption, 75.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AssumptionES 75%2 SevastopolES pick: Gilman, 100.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 GilmanES 100%8 LuckES pick: Turtle Lake, 87.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Turtle LakeES 88%5 Rib Lake3 Tri-CountyES pick: Frederic, 68.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 FredericES 68%ES pick: Clear Lake, 99.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Clear LakeES 100%7 CornellES pick: Gilman, 99.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 GilmanES 99%4 Turtle Lake6 FredericES pick: Clear Lake, 94.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Clear LakeES 94%ES pick: Gilman, 96.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 GilmanES 97%2 Clear Lake1 Belmont8 tie unresolvedES pick: Elkhart Lake-Glenbeulah, 62.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Elkhart Lake…ES 62%5 Three Lakes/PhelpsES pick: Valley Christian (Oshkosh), 99.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Valley Chris…ES 100%6 Almond-BancroftES pick: North Crawford, 74.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 North Crawfo…ES 74%7 Palmyra-EagleTBD4 Elkhart Lake-Glenbeul…ES pick: Valley Christian (Oshkosh), 73.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Valley Chris…ES 73%2 North CrawfordTBD3 Valley ChristianES pick: Hurley, 97.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HurleyES 97%8 BruceES pick: Northwood/Solon Springs, 98.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Northwood/So…ES 99%5 MellenES pick: Suring, 83.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 SuringES 83%6 FlambeauES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 81.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Wabeno/LaonaES 81%7 ThorpES pick: Hurley, 66.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HurleyES 67%4 Northwood/Solon Sprin…3 SuringES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 62.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Wabeno/LaonaES 63%1 HurleyES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 70.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Wabeno/LaonaES 70%1 AssumptionES pick: Gilman, 91.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 GilmanES 91%State semifinalTBD2 Wabeno/LaonaState semifinal1 GilmanTBDState finalRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

8-man football · Week 3 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 3. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 8 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 3. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 2: in New Auburn (44 → 29), Niagara (44 → 32), Prentice (44 → 32) · out Highland (28 → 39), Williams Bay (28 → 39), De Soto (30 → 37), Lena/Saint Thomas Aquinas (30 → 38), Elcho/White Lake (30 → 42), Florence (30 → 42), Gibraltar (30 → 42), Wild Rose (30 → 42), Winter/Birchwood (30 → 42), Wonewoc-Center (30 → 42). Biggest climbs: Turtle Lake ▲15, New Auburn ▲15, Wabeno/Laona ▲13. Biggest drops: Palmyra-Eagle ▼13, Bruce ▼13, Cornell ▼12.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲1Hurley checkHurley16.701-D5 ▼4 · 2-B
2▼1Gilman checkGilman16.701-B2 – · 1-B
3▲2Assumption checkWisconsin Rapids16.331-A7 ▼4 · 2-A
4▲6Belmont checkBelmont14.031-C1 ▲3 · 1-C
5▲1North Crawford checkSoldiers Grove13.082-C11 ▼6 · 3-C
6▲8Sevastopol checkSturgeon Bay12.772-A9 ▼3 · 3-D
7▲13Wabeno/Laona check12.672-D4 ▲3 · 1-D
8▼6Clear Lake checkClear Lake11.002-B13 ▼5 · 4-C
9▼5Green Bay N.E.W. Lutheran/Providence Academy (Green Bay) check10.273-A29 ▼20 · 8-A
10▼3Valley Christian (Oshkosh) checkOshkosh9.403-C3 ▲7 · 1-A
11▲9Tri-County checkPlainfield8.963-B17 ▼6 · 5-C
12▼4Suring checkSuring8.603-D6 ▲6 · 2-D
13–Elkhart Lake-Glenbeulah checkElkhart Lake7.704-C28 ▼15 · 7-D
14▼5Owen-Withee checkOwen7.434-A10 ▲4 · 3-A
15T▲1Northwood/Solon Springs check7.334-D15 – · 4-D
15T▲15Turtle Lake checkTurtle Lake7.334-B12 ▲3 · 3-B
17T▲13Athens checkAthens7.335-A21 ▼4 · 6-B
17T▼6Rib Lake checkRib Lake7.335-B19 ▼2 · 5-D
19T▲11Mellen checkMellen7.335-D39 ▼20 · Out projected out
19T▲1Three Lakes/Phelps check7.335-C31 ▼12 · 8-D
21▼7Almond-Bancroft checkAlmond6.436-C18 ▲3 · 5-A
22T▼2Alma Center Lincoln checkAlma Center6.336-A33 ▼11 · Out projected out
22T▼2Flambeau checkTony6.336-D16 ▲6 · 4-B
22T▼6Frederic checkFrederic6.336-B30 ▼8 · 8-B
25▼13Palmyra-Eagle checkPalmyra5.677-C14 ▲11 · 4-A
26▲4Thorp checkThorp4.677-D26 – · 7-C
27▲3Port Edwards checkPort Edwards4.677-A22 ▲5 · 6-A
28▼12Cornell checkCornell3.677-B45 ▼17 · Out projected out
29T▼13Bruce checkBruce3.678-D25 ▲4 · 7-B
29T▼9Luck checkLuck3.678-B46T ▼17 · Out projected out
29T▲15New Auburn checkNew Auburn3.678-A in34 ▼5 · Out projected out
32T▼12Chequamegon checkPark Falls3.67#842 ▼10 · Out projected out
32T▼12Lake Holcombe checkHolcombe3.67#827 ▲5 · 7-A
32T▲12Niagara checkNiagara3.67#8 in24 ▲8 · 6-D
32T▲12Prentice checkPrentice3.67#8 in46T ▼14 · Out projected out
32T▼2Siren checkSiren3.67#841 ▼9 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
37▼7De Soto checkBelow cut lineDe Soto2.10Below cut line dropped8 ▲29 · 2-C projected in
38▼8Lena/Saint Thomas Aquinas checkBelow cut line2.00Below cut line dropped20 ▲18 · 5-B projected in
39T▼11Highland checkBelow cut lineHighland1.10Below cut line dropped38 ▲1 · Out
39T▲5Oakfield checkBelow cut lineOakfield1.10Below cut line23 ▲16 · 6-C projected in
39T▼11Williams Bay checkBelow cut lineWilliams Bay1.10Below cut line dropped37 ▲2 · Out
42T▼12Elcho/White Lake checkBelow cut line1.00Below cut line dropped43 ▼1 · Out
42T▼12Florence checkBelow cut lineFlorence1.00Below cut line dropped50T ▼8 · Out
42T▼12Gibraltar checkBelow cut lineFish Creek1.00Below cut line dropped50T ▼8 · Out
42T▲2Washburn checkBelow cut lineWashburn1.00Below cut line35 ▲7 · Out
42T▼12Wild Rose checkBelow cut lineWild Rose1.00Below cut line dropped32 ▲10 · 8-C projected in
42T▼12Winter/Birchwood checkBelow cut line1.00Below cut line dropped50T ▼8 · Out
42T▼12Wonewoc-Center checkBelow cut lineWonewoc1.00Below cut line dropped50T ▼8 · Out
49T▼5Newman Catholic checkBelow cut lineWausau0.00Below cut line48 ▲1 · Out
49T▼5Oneida Nation checkBelow cut lineOneida0.00Below cut line54 ▼5 · Out
49T▼5Pembine/Goodman checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line40 ▲9 · Out
49T▼5Princeton/Green Lake checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line44 ▲5 · Out
49T▼5Wausaukee checkBelow cut lineWausaukee0.00Below cut line36 ▲13 · Out
49T▼5Wayland Academy checkBelow cut lineBeaver Dam0.00Below cut line49 – · Out
—Iola-Scandinavia checkIola12.40ExcludedExcluded
—Shell Lake check3-year enrollment average 204Shell Lake11.00ExcludedExcluded
—Rosholt checkRosholt7.60ExcludedExcluded
—Clayton/Prairie Farm check3-year enrollment average 2117.33ExcludedExcluded
—Phillips check3-year enrollment average 201Phillips6.33ExcludedExcluded
—Abundant Life Christian/Saint Ambrose check3-year enrollment average 2896.03ExcludedExcluded
—Algoma check3-year enrollment average 220Algoma5.67ExcludedExcluded
—Kickapoo/La Farge check3-year enrollment average 2294.93ExcludedExcluded
—St. John's Northwestern check3-year enrollment average 350Delafield4.93ExcludedExcluded
—Marion/Tigerton check3-year enrollment average 2112.00ExcludedExcluded
—Bowler/Gresham check0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Gillett checkGillett0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Menominee Nation check3-year enrollment average 368Keshena0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Montello check3-year enrollment average 216Montello0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Monticello checkMonticello0.00ExcludedExcluded
—South Shore checkPort Wing0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Wisconsin Heights check3-year enrollment average 229Mazomanie0.00ExcludedExcluded

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 3 (games through Saturday 2026-09-05). 36 of 54 in the field, 31 placed (5 waiting on a tie-break).

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: 3.0 for an 8-player school, 3.3 for one whose three-year enrollment average is over 200. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 8).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 8). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 8 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 8 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 8 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 8. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Hurley (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-20Tri-CountyW33.006.303yes
2026-08-27Wabeno/LaonaW33.006.003yes
2026-09-03PhillipsW3.33.303.003yes

Tier 1 AVG = 9.30 ÷ 3 = 3.100. Tier 2 points = 6.30 + 6.00 + 3.00 = 15.30; opponents’ games = 3 + 3 + 3 = 9; Tier 2 AVG = 15.30 ÷ 9 = 1.700. Total = 3.100 + 8 × 1.700 = 16.70 (Tier 3 tie-break 7.62).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

WIAA Football Playoff Brackets: Official and Projected | Ewert Sports | Ewert Sports