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Playoff Bracket · 8-Man Football UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 4Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 10:19 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 88.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Wabeno/LaonaES 88%8 Flambeau4 Tri-CountyES pick: Rib Lake, 51.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Rib LakeES 51%3 Northwood/Solon Sprin…ES pick: Athens, 60.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 AthensES 60%ES pick: Sevastopol, 63.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 SevastopolES 64%7 Lena/Saint Thomas Aqu…ES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 98.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Wabeno/LaonaES 98%5 Rib Lake6 AthensES pick: Sevastopol, 65.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 SevastopolES 65%ES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 64.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Wabeno/LaonaES 64%2 SevastopolES pick: Hurley, 99.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HurleyES 99%8 MellenES pick: Owen-Withee, 88.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Owen-WitheeES 88%5 ThorpES pick: Clear Lake, 94.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Clear LakeES 94%6 FredericES pick: Gilman, 99.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 GilmanES 100%7 Lake Holcombe1 HurleyES pick: Owen-Withee, 80.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Owen-WitheeES 80%3 Clear LakeES pick: Gilman, 96.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 GilmanES 97%4 Owen-WitheeES pick: Gilman, 91.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 GilmanES 92%ES pick: Assumption, 99.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AssumptionES 99%8 Port EdwardsES pick: De Soto, 71.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 De SotoES 72%5 Turtle LakeES pick: North Crawford, 91.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 North Crawfo…ES 92%6 Elkhart Lake-Glenbeul…ES pick: Belmont, 92.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 BelmontES 93%7 Alma Center LincolnES pick: Assumption, 86.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AssumptionES 86%4 De Soto3 North CrawfordES pick: Belmont, 89.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 BelmontES 89%1 AssumptionES pick: Belmont, 68.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 BelmontES 68%ES pick: Suring, 95.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 SuringES 95%8 Three Lakes/PhelpsES pick: Palmyra-Eagle, 69.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Palmyra-EagleES 70%5 Green Bay N.E.W. Luth…3 Almond-BancroftES pick: Niagara, 73.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 NiagaraES 73%ES pick: Valley Christian (Oshkosh), 91.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Valley Chris…ES 91%7 OakfieldES pick: Suring, 77.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 SuringES 78%4 Palmyra-Eagle6 NiagaraES pick: Valley Christian (Oshkosh), 98.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Valley Chris…ES 99%1 SuringES pick: Valley Christian (Oshkosh), 68.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Valley Chris…ES 69%1 Wabeno/LaonaES pick: Gilman, 94.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 GilmanES 94%State semifinalES pick: Belmont, 71.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 BelmontES 71%2 Valley ChristianState semifinalES pick: Gilman, 80.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 GilmanES 81%2 BelmontState final · ES pick: GilmanRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

8-man football · Week 4 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 4. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 8 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 4. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 3: in De Soto (37 → 13), Lena/Saint Thomas Aquinas (38 → 26), Oakfield (39 → 27) · out Cornell (28 → 36), Bruce (29 → 34), Luck (29 → 37), New Auburn (29 → 37), Siren (32 → 33), Chequamegon (32 → 39), Prentice (32 → 39). Biggest climbs: De Soto ▲24, Lena/Saint Thomas Aquinas ▲12, Oakfield ▲12. Biggest drops: Mellen ▼10, Three Lakes/Phelps ▼10, Flambeau ▼10.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Hurley checkHurley16.731-B5 ▼4 · 2-B
2▲1Assumption checkWisconsin Rapids16.501-C7 ▼5 · 2-A
3▲9Suring checkSuring15.451-D6 ▼3 · 2-D
4▲3Wabeno/Laona check14.251-A4 – · 1-D
5▼3Gilman checkGilman13.732-B2 ▲3 · 1-B
6–Sevastopol checkSturgeon Bay12.982-A9 ▼3 · 3-D
7▲3Valley Christian (Oshkosh) checkOshkosh12.912-D3 ▲4 · 1-A
8▼4Belmont checkBelmont12.452-C1 ▲7 · 1-C
9▼4North Crawford checkSoldiers Grove12.163-C11 ▼2 · 3-C
10▼2Clear Lake checkClear Lake10.503-B13 ▼3 · 4-C
11▲4Northwood/Solon Springs check9.753-A15 ▼4 · 4-D
12▲9Almond-Bancroft checkAlmond9.223-D18 ▼6 · 5-A
13▲24De Soto checkDe Soto8.804-C in8 ▲5 · 2-C
14–Owen-Withee checkOwen8.324-B10 ▲4 · 3-A
15▲10Palmyra-Eagle checkPalmyra7.654-D14 ▲1 · 4-A
16▼5Tri-County checkPlainfield7.474-A17 ▼1 · 5-C
17▼8Green Bay N.E.W. Lutheran/Providence Academy (Green Bay) check7.215-D29 ▼12 · 8-A
18▼3Turtle Lake checkTurtle Lake6.755-C12 ▲6 · 3-B
19▲7Thorp checkThorp6.755-B26 ▼7 · 7-C
20▼3Rib Lake checkRib Lake6.755-A19 ▲1 · 5-D
21▼8Elkhart Lake-Glenbeulah checkElkhart Lake6.386-C28 ▼7 · 7-D
22▼5Athens checkAthens6.156-A21 ▲1 · 6-B
23▲9Niagara checkNiagara6.086-D24 ▼1 · 6-D
24▼2Frederic checkFrederic5.256-B30 ▼6 · 8-B
25▼3Alma Center Lincoln checkAlma Center5.257-C33 ▼8 · Out projected out
26▲12Lena/Saint Thomas Aquinas check5.257-A in20 ▲6 · 5-B
27▲12Oakfield checkOakfield4.657-D in23 ▲4 · 6-C
28▲4Lake Holcombe checkHolcombe4.507-B27 ▲1 · 7-A
29T▼10Mellen checkMellen4.508-B39 ▼10 · Out projected out
29T▼10Three Lakes/Phelps check4.508-D31 ▼2 · 8-D
31▼4Port Edwards checkPort Edwards4.508-C22 ▲9 · 6-A
32▼10Flambeau checkTony3.758-A16 ▲16 · 4-B
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼1Siren checkBelow cut lineSiren3.75Below cut line dropped41 ▼8 · Out
34▼5Bruce checkBelow cut lineBruce3.10Below cut line dropped25 ▲9 · 7-B projected in
35▲7Washburn checkBelow cut lineWashburn3.10Below cut line35 – · Out
36▼8Cornell checkBelow cut lineCornell2.25Below cut line dropped45 ▼9 · Out
37T▼8Luck checkBelow cut lineLuck2.25Below cut line dropped46T ▼9 · Out
37T▼8New Auburn checkBelow cut lineNew Auburn2.25Below cut line dropped34 ▲3 · Out
39T▼7Chequamegon checkBelow cut linePark Falls2.25Below cut line dropped42 ▼3 · Out
39T▲3Elcho/White Lake checkBelow cut line2.25Below cut line43 ▼4 · Out
39T▼7Prentice checkBelow cut linePrentice2.25Below cut line dropped46T ▼7 · Out
42▲7Pembine/Goodman checkBelow cut line2.25Below cut line40 ▲2 · Out
43▼4Highland checkBelow cut lineHighland1.57Below cut line38 ▲5 · Out
44▼5Williams Bay checkBelow cut lineWilliams Bay0.82Below cut line37 ▲7 · Out
45T▼3Florence checkBelow cut lineFlorence0.75Below cut line50T ▼5 · Out
45T▼3Gibraltar checkBelow cut lineFish Creek0.75Below cut line50T ▼5 · Out
45T▲4Princeton/Green Lake checkBelow cut line0.75Below cut line44 ▲1 · Out
45T▼3Wild Rose checkBelow cut lineWild Rose0.75Below cut line32 ▲13 · 8-C projected in
45T▼3Winter/Birchwood checkBelow cut line0.75Below cut line50T ▼5 · Out
45T▼3Wonewoc-Center checkBelow cut lineWonewoc0.75Below cut line50T ▼5 · Out
51T▼2Newman Catholic checkBelow cut lineWausau0.00Below cut line48 ▲3 · Out
51T▼2Oneida Nation checkBelow cut lineOneida0.00Below cut line54 ▼3 · Out
51T▼2Wausaukee checkBelow cut lineWausaukee0.00Below cut line36 ▲15 · Out
51T▼2Wayland Academy checkBelow cut lineBeaver Dam0.00Below cut line49 ▲2 · Out
—Iola-Scandinavia checkIola16.20ExcludedExcluded
—Shell Lake check3-year enrollment average 204Shell Lake12.00ExcludedExcluded
—Clayton/Prairie Farm check3-year enrollment average 2118.25ExcludedExcluded
—Rosholt checkRosholt7.56ExcludedExcluded
—Abundant Life Christian/Saint Ambrose check3-year enrollment average 2896.45ExcludedExcluded
—Phillips check3-year enrollment average 201Phillips6.00ExcludedExcluded
—Kickapoo/La Farge check3-year enrollment average 2294.65ExcludedExcluded
—St. John's Northwestern check3-year enrollment average 350Delafield4.65ExcludedExcluded
—Algoma check3-year enrollment average 220Algoma3.75ExcludedExcluded
—Marion/Tigerton check3-year enrollment average 2112.33ExcludedExcluded
—Bowler/Gresham check0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Gillett checkGillett0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Menominee Nation check3-year enrollment average 368Keshena0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Montello check3-year enrollment average 216Montello0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Monticello checkMonticello0.00ExcludedExcluded
—South Shore checkPort Wing0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Wisconsin Heights check3-year enrollment average 229Mazomanie0.00ExcludedExcluded

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 4 (games through Saturday 2026-09-12). 32 of 54 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: 3.0 for an 8-player school, 3.3 for one whose three-year enrollment average is over 200. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 8).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 8). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 8 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 8 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 8 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 8. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Hurley (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-20Tri-CountyW33.009.304yes
2026-08-27Wabeno/LaonaW33.009.004yes
2026-09-03PhillipsW3.33.306.004yes
2026-09-11PrenticeW (forfeit)33.003.004yes. Forfeit win: the loser's full value.
2026-09-11SuringL (Seeding Only)3———Not counted: a replacement game that was not won, so the forfeit win that week stands.

Tier 1 AVG = 12.30 ÷ 4 = 3.075. Tier 2 points = 9.30 + 9.00 + 6.00 + 3.00 = 27.30; opponents’ games = 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 16; Tier 2 AVG = 27.30 ÷ 16 = 1.706. Total = 3.075 + 8 × 1.706 = 16.73 (Tier 3 tie-break 5.79).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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