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Playoff Bracket · 8-Man Football UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 5Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 10:19 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Assumption, 96.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AssumptionES 97%8 Lake HolcombeES pick: Tri-County, 69.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Tri-CountyES 70%5 Almond-BancroftES pick: Clear Lake, 72.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Clear LakeES 73%6 ThorpES pick: Valley Christian (Oshkosh), 92.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Valley Chris…ES 92%7 FlambeauES pick: Assumption, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AssumptionES 99%4 Tri-County3 Clear LakeES pick: Valley Christian (Oshkosh), 74.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Valley Chris…ES 74%ES pick: Assumption, 53.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AssumptionES 54%2 Valley ChristianES pick: Hurley, 92.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HurleyES 92%8 Three Lakes/Phelps4 Turtle LakeES pick: Owen-Withee, 92.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Owen-WitheeES 92%ES pick: Northwood/Solon Springs, 85.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Northwood/So…ES 85%6 FredericES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 98.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Wabeno/LaonaES 99%7 Bruce1 HurleyES pick: Owen-Withee, 80.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Owen-WitheeES 80%3 Northwood/Solon Sprin…ES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 83.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Wabeno/LaonaES 84%ES pick: Owen-Withee, 60.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Owen-WitheeES 61%2 Wabeno/LaonaES pick: Belmont, 96.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BelmontES 96%8 OakfieldES pick: Palmyra-Eagle, 81.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Palmyra-EagleES 81%5 Elkhart Lake-Glenbeul…ES pick: De Soto, 76.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 De SotoES 76%6 Green Bay N.E.W. Luth…ES pick: North Crawford, 63.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 North Crawfo…ES 63%7 Alma Center LincolnES pick: Belmont, 95.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BelmontES 95%4 Palmyra-Eagle3 De SotoES pick: North Crawford, 67.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 North Crawfo…ES 67%ES pick: Belmont, 89.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BelmontES 89%2 North CrawfordES pick: Suring, 96.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 SuringES 97%8 NiagaraES pick: Athens, 95.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 AthensES 95%5 Rib LakeES pick: Gilman, 98.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 GilmanES 98%6 Lena/Saint Thomas Aqu…ES pick: Sevastopol, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 SevastopolES 98%7 Port EdwardsES pick: Suring, 66.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 SuringES 67%4 AthensES pick: Gilman, 96.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 GilmanES 96%2 Sevastopol1 SuringES pick: Gilman, 95.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 GilmanES 96%1 AssumptionES pick: Owen-Withee, 51.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: neutral.5 Owen-WitheeES 51%State semifinal1 BelmontES pick: Gilman, 80.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: neutral.3 GilmanES 81%State semifinal5 Owen-WitheeES pick: Gilman, 90.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: neutral.3 GilmanES 91%State final · ES pick: GilmanRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

8-man football · Week 5 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 5. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 8 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 5. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 4: in Bruce (34 → 28) · out Mellen (29 → 34). Biggest climbs: Athens ▲6, Flambeau ▲6, Bruce ▲6. Biggest drops: Niagara ▼8, Almond-Bancroft ▼5, Green Bay N.E.W. Lutheran/Providence Academy (Green Bay) ▼5.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲1Assumption checkWisconsin Rapids17.591-A7 ▼6 · 2-A
2▲1Suring checkSuring15.771-D6 ▼4 · 2-D
3▲5Belmont checkBelmont14.931-C1 ▲2 · 1-C
4▼3Hurley checkHurley14.771-B5 ▼1 · 2-B
5▼1Wabeno/Laona check13.982-B4 ▲1 · 1-D
6–Sevastopol checkSturgeon Bay13.312-D9 ▼3 · 3-D
7–Valley Christian (Oshkosh) checkOshkosh12.222-A3 ▲4 · 1-A
8▲1North Crawford checkSoldiers Grove12.172-C11 ▼3 · 3-C
9▼4Gilman checkGilman11.803-D2 ▲7 · 1-B
10–Clear Lake checkClear Lake10.683-A13 ▼3 · 4-C
11▲2De Soto checkDe Soto10.623-C8 ▲3 · 2-C
12▼1Northwood/Solon Springs check10.083-B15 ▼3 · 4-D
13▲3Tri-County checkPlainfield9.874-A17 ▼4 · 5-C
14▲1Palmyra-Eagle checkPalmyra9.054-C14 – · 4-A
15▲3Turtle Lake checkTurtle Lake8.164-B12 ▲3 · 3-B
16▲6Athens checkAthens7.664-D21 ▼5 · 6-B
17▼5Almond-Bancroft checkAlmond7.125-A18 ▼1 · 5-A
18▼4Owen-Withee checkOwen6.665-B10 ▲8 · 3-A
19▲1Rib Lake checkRib Lake6.245-D19 – · 5-D
20▲1Elkhart Lake-Glenbeulah checkElkhart Lake6.065-C28 ▼8 · 7-D
21▲3Frederic checkFrederic6.006-B30 ▼9 · 8-B
22▼5Green Bay N.E.W. Lutheran/Providence Academy (Green Bay) check5.906-C29 ▼7 · 8-A
23▼4Thorp checkThorp5.646-A26 ▼3 · 7-C
24▲2Lena/Saint Thomas Aquinas check5.646-D20 ▲4 · 5-B
25–Alma Center Lincoln checkAlma Center5.047-C33 ▼8 · Out projected out
26▲6Flambeau checkTony5.047-A16 ▲10 · 4-B
27▲4Port Edwards checkPort Edwards4.937-D22 ▲5 · 6-A
28▲6Bruce checkBruce4.807-B in25 ▲3 · 7-B
29–Three Lakes/Phelps check4.688-B31 ▼2 · 8-D
30▼3Oakfield checkOakfield4.308-C23 ▲7 · 6-C
31▼8Niagara checkNiagara4.148-D24 ▲7 · 6-D
32▼4Lake Holcombe checkHolcombe4.088-A27 ▲5 · 7-A
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▲12Wild Rose checkBelow cut lineWild Rose3.12Below cut line32 ▲1 · 8-C projected in
34▼5Mellen checkBelow cut lineMellen3.12Below cut line dropped39 ▼5 · Out
35▲1Cornell checkBelow cut lineCornell2.52Below cut line45 ▼10 · Out
36▼3Siren checkBelow cut lineSiren2.52Below cut line41 ▼5 · Out
37▲2Elcho/White Lake checkBelow cut line2.52Below cut line43 ▼6 · Out
38▲5Highland checkBelow cut lineHighland2.26Below cut line38 – · Out
39▼4Washburn checkBelow cut lineWashburn2.20Below cut line35 ▲4 · Out
40▲2Pembine/Goodman checkBelow cut line2.16Below cut line40 – · Out
41T▼2Chequamegon checkBelow cut linePark Falls1.56Below cut line42 ▼1 · Out
41T▼4Luck checkBelow cut lineLuck1.56Below cut line46T ▼5 · Out
41T▼4New Auburn checkBelow cut lineNew Auburn1.56Below cut line34 ▲7 · Out
41T▼2Prentice checkBelow cut linePrentice1.56Below cut line46T ▼5 · Out
45▲6Wausaukee checkBelow cut lineWausaukee1.56Below cut line36 ▲9 · Out
46▼2Williams Bay checkBelow cut lineWilliams Bay1.26Below cut line37 ▲9 · Out
47T▼2Florence checkBelow cut lineFlorence0.60Below cut line50T ▼3 · Out
47T▼2Gibraltar checkBelow cut lineFish Creek0.60Below cut line50T ▼3 · Out
47T▼2Princeton/Green Lake checkBelow cut line0.60Below cut line44 ▲3 · Out
47T▼2Winter/Birchwood checkBelow cut line0.60Below cut line50T ▼3 · Out
47T▼2Wonewoc-Center checkBelow cut lineWonewoc0.60Below cut line50T ▼3 · Out
52T▼1Newman Catholic checkBelow cut lineWausau0.00Below cut line48 ▲4 · Out
52T▼1Oneida Nation checkBelow cut lineOneida0.00Below cut line54 ▼2 · Out
52T▼1Wayland Academy checkBelow cut lineBeaver Dam0.00Below cut line49 ▲3 · Out
—Shell Lake check3-year enrollment average 204Shell Lake14.62ExcludedExcluded
—Iola-Scandinavia checkIola12.86ExcludedExcluded
—Rosholt checkRosholt9.97ExcludedExcluded
—Clayton/Prairie Farm check3-year enrollment average 2117.20ExcludedExcluded
—Algoma check3-year enrollment average 220Algoma7.20ExcludedExcluded
—Abundant Life Christian/Saint Ambrose check3-year enrollment average 2897.15ExcludedExcluded
—Phillips check3-year enrollment average 201Phillips5.04ExcludedExcluded
—St. John's Northwestern check3-year enrollment average 350Delafield4.84ExcludedExcluded
—Kickapoo/La Farge check3-year enrollment average 2293.30ExcludedExcluded
—Marion/Tigerton check3-year enrollment average 2111.86ExcludedExcluded
—Wisconsin Heights check3-year enrollment average 229Mazomanie1.56ExcludedExcluded
—Bowler/Gresham check0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Gillett checkGillett0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Menominee Nation check3-year enrollment average 368Keshena0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Montello check3-year enrollment average 216Montello0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Monticello checkMonticello0.00ExcludedExcluded
—South Shore checkPort Wing0.00ExcludedExcluded

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 5 (games through Saturday 2026-09-19). 32 of 54 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: 3.0 for an 8-player school, 3.3 for one whose three-year enrollment average is over 200. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 8).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 8). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 8 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 8 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 8 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 8. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Assumption (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21RosholtW33.0012.305yes
2026-08-28ThorpW33.009.005yes
2026-09-04Alma Center LincolnW (forfeit)33.006.005yes. Forfeit win: the loser's full value.
2026-09-04WashburnW (Seeding Only)3———Not counted: a replacement win worth less than the forfeit win that week, so the forfeit stands (regulations 3h).
2026-09-11AthensW33.009.005yes
2026-09-18Owen-WitheeW33.009.305yes

Tier 1 AVG = 15.00 ÷ 5 = 3.000. Tier 2 points = 12.30 + 9.00 + 6.00 + 9.00 + 9.30 = 45.60; opponents’ games = 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 25; Tier 2 AVG = 45.60 ÷ 25 = 1.824. Total = 3.000 + 8 × 1.824 = 17.59 (Tier 3 tie-break 5.17).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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