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Playoff Bracket · 8-Man Football UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 7Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 10:19 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Hurley, 97.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HurleyES 97%8 BruceES pick: Northwood/Solon Springs, 65.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Northwood/So…ES 65%5 Turtle LakeES pick: Clear Lake, 97.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Clear LakeES 97%6 Rib LakeES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 94.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Wabeno/LaonaES 95%7 Lake HolcombeES pick: Hurley, 66.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HurleyES 67%4 Northwood/Solon Sprin…3 Clear LakeES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 64.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Wabeno/LaonaES 64%1 HurleyES pick: Wabeno/Laona, 70.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Wabeno/LaonaES 70%ES pick: Gilman, 98.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 GilmanES 98%8 Alma Center LincolnES pick: Flambeau, 86.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 FlambeauES 87%5 NiagaraES pick: North Crawford, 60.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 North Crawfo…ES 61%6 Lena/Saint Thomas Aqu…ES pick: Suring, 74.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 SuringES 74%7 ThorpES pick: Gilman, 99.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 GilmanES 99%4 Flambeau3 North CrawfordES pick: Suring, 58.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 SuringES 58%ES pick: Gilman, 96.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 GilmanES 97%2 SuringES pick: Belmont, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BelmontES 100%8 Wild RoseES pick: Owen-Withee, 84.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Owen-WitheeES 84%5 AthensES pick: De Soto, 96.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 De SotoES 97%6 Port EdwardsES pick: Assumption, 97.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 AssumptionES 98%7 FredericES pick: Belmont, 71.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BelmontES 72%4 Owen-Withee3 De SotoES pick: Assumption, 86.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 AssumptionES 86%ES pick: Belmont, 72.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BelmontES 73%2 AssumptionES pick: Valley Christian (Oshkosh), 91.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Valley Chris…ES 91%8 OakfieldES pick: Tri-County, 69.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Tri-CountyES 70%5 Almond-BancroftES pick: Palmyra-Eagle, 81.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Palmyra-EagleES 81%6 Elkhart Lake-Glenbeul…ES pick: Sevastopol, 87.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 SevastopolES 87%7 Green Bay N.E.W. Luth…ES pick: Valley Christian (Oshkosh), 99.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Valley Chris…ES 99%4 Tri-County3 Palmyra-EagleES pick: Sevastopol, 76.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 SevastopolES 76%ES pick: Valley Christian (Oshkosh), 74.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Valley Chris…ES 75%2 Sevastopol2 Wabeno/LaonaES pick: Gilman, 94.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 GilmanES 94%State semifinalES pick: Belmont, 71.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 BelmontES 71%1 Valley ChristianState semifinalES pick: Gilman, 80.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:08.719Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 GilmanES 81%1 BelmontState final · ES pick: GilmanRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

8-man football · Week 7 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 7. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 8 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 7. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 6: in Wild Rose (34 → 32) · out Three Lakes/Phelps (32 → 33). Biggest climbs: Niagara ▲6, Lake Holcombe ▲5, Hurley ▲4. Biggest drops: Thorp ▼6, Assumption ▼4, Bruce ▼3.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Belmont checkBelmont18.441-C1 – · 1-C
2–Gilman checkGilman15.341-B2 – · 1-B
3▲4Hurley checkHurley14.411-A5 ▼2 · 2-B
4▲1Valley Christian (Oshkosh) checkOshkosh14.191-D3 ▲1 · 1-A
5▲1Suring checkSuring14.032-B6 ▼1 · 2-D
6▼2Wabeno/Laona check13.882-A4 ▲2 · 1-D
7▼4Assumption checkWisconsin Rapids13.492-C7 – · 2-A
8▲1Sevastopol checkSturgeon Bay12.812-D9 ▼1 · 3-D
9▼1De Soto checkDe Soto11.383-C8 ▲1 · 2-C
10▲1North Crawford checkSoldiers Grove10.393-B11 ▼1 · 3-C
11▼1Clear Lake checkClear Lake9.923-A13 ▼2 · 4-C
12▲3Palmyra-Eagle checkPalmyra9.703-D14 ▼2 · 4-A
13▲1Owen-Withee checkOwen9.094-C10 ▲3 · 3-A
14▼2Tri-County checkPlainfield8.274-D17 ▼3 · 5-C
15▼2Northwood/Solon Springs check8.144-A15 – · 4-D
16▲4Flambeau checkTony8.134-B16 – · 4-B
17▼1Athens checkAthens7.585-C21 ▼4 · 6-B
18▼1Almond-Bancroft checkAlmond7.575-D18 – · 5-A
19▼1Turtle Lake checkTurtle Lake7.535-A12 ▲7 · 3-B
20▲6Niagara checkNiagara6.175-B24 ▼4 · 6-D
21▼2Rib Lake checkRib Lake6.066-A19 ▲2 · 5-D
22▼1Port Edwards checkPort Edwards5.946-C22 – · 6-A
23–Lena/Saint Thomas Aquinas check5.576-B20 ▲3 · 5-B
24▲1Elkhart Lake-Glenbeulah checkElkhart Lake5.366-D28 ▼4 · 7-D
25▲5Lake Holcombe checkHolcombe5.147-A27 ▼2 · 7-A
26▼2Green Bay N.E.W. Lutheran/Providence Academy (Green Bay) check4.767-D29 ▼3 · 8-A
27▲1Frederic checkFrederic4.717-C30 ▼3 · 8-B
28▼6Thorp checkThorp4.717-B26 ▲2 · 7-C
29▲2Oakfield checkOakfield4.358-D23 ▲6 · 6-C
30▼3Bruce checkBruce4.218-A25 ▲5 · 7-B
31▼2Alma Center Lincoln checkAlma Center3.808-B33 ▼2 · Out projected out
32▲2Wild Rose checkWild Rose3.788-C in32 – · 8-C
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼1Three Lakes/Phelps checkBelow cut line3.67Below cut line dropped31 ▲2 · 8-D projected in
34▲7Washburn checkBelow cut lineWashburn3.29Below cut line35 ▼1 · Out
35–Highland checkBelow cut lineHighland2.86Below cut line38 ▼3 · Out
36▼3New Auburn checkBelow cut lineNew Auburn2.82Below cut line34 ▲2 · Out
37–Williams Bay checkBelow cut lineWilliams Bay2.36Below cut line37 – · Out
38▼2Mellen checkBelow cut lineMellen2.29Below cut line39 ▼1 · Out
39–Siren checkBelow cut lineSiren1.90Below cut line41 ▼2 · Out
40–Elcho/White Lake checkBelow cut line1.90Below cut line43 ▼3 · Out
41▲1Pembine/Goodman checkBelow cut line1.79Below cut line40 ▲1 · Out
42▼4Cornell checkBelow cut lineCornell1.41Below cut line45 ▼3 · Out
43▼1Wausaukee checkBelow cut lineWausaukee1.35Below cut line36 ▲7 · Out
44▲4Princeton/Green Lake checkBelow cut line0.97Below cut line44 – · Out
45T▼1Chequamegon checkBelow cut linePark Falls0.92Below cut line42 ▲3 · Out
45T▼1Luck checkBelow cut lineLuck0.92Below cut line46T ▼1 · Out
45T▼1Prentice checkBelow cut linePrentice0.92Below cut line46T ▼1 · Out
48▼4Newman Catholic checkBelow cut lineWausau0.92Below cut line48 – · Out
49▲4Wayland Academy checkBelow cut lineBeaver Dam0.47Below cut line49 – · Out
50T▼2Florence checkBelow cut lineFlorence0.43Below cut line50T – · Out
50T▼2Gibraltar checkBelow cut lineFish Creek0.43Below cut line50T – · Out
50T▼2Winter/Birchwood checkBelow cut line0.43Below cut line50T – · Out
50T▼2Wonewoc-Center checkBelow cut lineWonewoc0.43Below cut line50T – · Out
54▼1Oneida Nation checkBelow cut lineOneida0.00Below cut line54 – · Out
—Shell Lake check3-year enrollment average 204Shell Lake14.80ExcludedExcluded
—Iola-Scandinavia checkIola14.41ExcludedExcluded
—Clayton/Prairie Farm check3-year enrollment average 21111.88ExcludedExcluded
—Rosholt checkRosholt10.92ExcludedExcluded
—Abundant Life Christian/Saint Ambrose check3-year enrollment average 28910.23ExcludedExcluded
—Algoma check3-year enrollment average 220Algoma8.07ExcludedExcluded
—Phillips check3-year enrollment average 201Phillips7.10ExcludedExcluded
—Kickapoo/La Farge check3-year enrollment average 2295.36ExcludedExcluded
—Marion/Tigerton check3-year enrollment average 2114.48ExcludedExcluded
—St. John's Northwestern check3-year enrollment average 350Delafield3.34ExcludedExcluded
—Wisconsin Heights check3-year enrollment average 229Mazomanie1.36ExcludedExcluded
—Bowler/Gresham check0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Gillett checkGillett0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Menominee Nation check3-year enrollment average 368Keshena0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Montello check3-year enrollment average 216Montello0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Monticello checkMonticello0.00ExcludedExcluded
—South Shore checkPort Wing0.00ExcludedExcluded

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 7 (games through Saturday 2026-10-03). 32 of 54 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: 3.0 for an 8-player school, 3.3 for one whose three-year enrollment average is over 200. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 8).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 8). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 8 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 8 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 8 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 8. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Belmont (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-20Kickapoo/La FargeW3.33.3012.307yes
2026-08-28OakfieldW33.0012.607yes
2026-09-04Wonewoc-CenterW (forfeit)3———Not counted: this forfeit win was replaced by the more favorable win on 2026-09-04 (regulations 3h).
2026-09-04Tri-CountyW (Seeding Only)33.0012.007yes. Replacement win counted instead of the forfeit win over Wonewoc-Center that week (more favorable, regulations 3h). Tier 2 credit: Tri-County's Tier 1 points less the forfeit win it kept that week (3.3).
2026-09-11Wisconsin HeightsW3.33.306.007yes
2026-09-18MonticelloW (forfeit)3———Not counted: this forfeit win was replaced by the more favorable win on 2026-09-18 (regulations 3h).
2026-09-18Iola-ScandinaviaW (Seeding Only)33.0018.307yes. Replacement win counted instead of the forfeit win over Monticello that week (more favorable, regulations 3h).
2026-09-25North CrawfordW33.0015.306yes
2026-10-02De SotoW33.0015.607yes

Tier 1 AVG = 21.60 ÷ 7 = 3.086. Tier 2 points = 12.30 + 12.60 + 12.00 + 6.00 + 18.30 + 15.30 + 15.60 = 92.10; opponents’ games = 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 6 + 7 = 48; Tier 2 AVG = 92.10 ÷ 48 = 1.919. Total = 3.086 + 8 × 1.919 = 18.44 (Tier 3 tie-break 5.93).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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