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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 1 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 9Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 9:31 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Bay Port, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 99%8 Wausau WestES pick: Neenah, 64.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 NeenahES 65%5 De PereES pick: Stevens Point Area Senior High, 77.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Stevens Poin…ES 77%6 Appleton NorthES pick: Waunakee, 97.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 WaunakeeES 98%7 D.C. EverestES pick: Bay Port, 90.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 90%4 Neenah3 Stevens Point Area Se…ES pick: Waunakee, 89.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 WaunakeeES 89%ES pick: Bay Port, 62.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 62%2 WaunakeeES pick: Hamilton, 99.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HamiltonES 99%8 Janesville ParkerES pick: Milwaukee Reagan, 79.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Milwaukee Re…ES 80%5 Milwaukee Pulaski/Car…ES pick: Oconomowoc, 94.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 OconomowocES 94%6 MiddletonES pick: Arrowhead, 99.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ArrowheadES 99%7 Oshkosh WestES pick: Hamilton, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HamiltonES 100%4 Milwaukee Reagan3 OconomowocES pick: Arrowhead, 86.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ArrowheadES 86%1 HamiltonES pick: Arrowhead, 57.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ArrowheadES 58%ES pick: Muskego, 100.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 100%8 Milwaukee Hamilton/Au…4 Kenosha BradfordES pick: Franklin, 71.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 FranklinES 71%ES pick: Indian Trail High School & Academy, 91.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Indian Trail…ES 92%6 Milwaukee Bradley Tec…ES pick: Racine Case, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Racine CaseES 100%7 Milwaukee Riverside/G…ES pick: Muskego, 85.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 85%5 Franklin3 Indian Trail & Acad.ES pick: Racine Case, 96.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Racine CaseES 96%ES pick: Muskego, 86.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 87%2 Racine CaseES pick: West De Pere, 93.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 93%8 KimberlyES pick: Marquette, 89.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 MarquetteES 90%5 Madison MemorialES pick: Hudson, 66.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 HudsonES 66%6 Chippewa FallsES pick: Verona, 80.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 VeronaES 80%7 Sun Prairie EastES pick: West De Pere, 84.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 85%4 MarquetteES pick: Hudson, 51.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 HudsonES 51%2 VeronaES pick: West De Pere, 84.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 84%3 Hudson1 Bay PortES pick: Arrowhead, 65.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 ArrowheadES 65%State semifinalES pick: Muskego, 74.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MuskegoES 74%1 West De PereState semifinal2 ArrowheadES pick: Muskego, 56.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MuskegoES 56%State final · ES pick: MuskegoRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 1 · Week 9 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 9. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 9. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 8: in Oshkosh West (33 → 27), Janesville Parker (36 → 31) · out Green Bay Preble (31 → 35), Hortonville (32 → 33). Biggest climbs: Madison Memorial ▲6, Oshkosh West ▲6, Neenah ▲5. Biggest drops: Marquette ▼3, Franklin ▼3, Kimberly ▼3.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–West De Pere checkDe Pere37.611-D1 – · 1-D
2–Hamilton checkSussex32.611-B2 – · 1-B
3▲1Bay Port checkGreen Bay30.171-A3 – · 1-A
4▼1Muskego checkMuskego29.171-C4 – · 1-C
5▲1Arrowhead checkHartland27.942-B5 – · 2-B
6▼1Waunakee checkWaunakee27.392-A6 – · 2-A
7▲3Racine Case checkRacine27.062-C7 – · 2-C
8–Verona checkVerona27.062-D8 – · 2-D
9▼2Stevens Point Area Senior High checkStevens Point24.223-A9 – · 3-A
10▲4Hudson checkHudson24.173-D10 – · 3-D
11▼2Oconomowoc checkOconomowoc21.673-B11 – · 3-B
12▼1Indian Trail High School & Academy checkKenosha19.333-C12 – · 3-C
13▲5Neenah checkNeenah19.284-A13 – · 4-A
14▼2Kenosha Bradford checkKenosha19.284-C14 – · 4-C
15–Milwaukee Reagan checkMilwaukee19.274-B15 – · 4-B
16▼3Marquette checkMilwaukee18.614-D16 – · 4-D
17▲3Milwaukee Pulaski/Carmen Southgate check17.975-B17 – · 5-B
18▼2De Pere checkDe Pere17.335-A18 – · 5-A
19▲6Madison Memorial checkMadison16.835-D19 – · 5-D
20▼3Franklin checkFranklin15.835-C20 – · 5-C
21▼2Middleton checkMiddleton15.676-B21 – · 6-B
22▼1Appleton North checkAppleton15.616-A22 – · 6-A
23▼1Chippewa Falls checkChippewa Falls15.176-D23 – · 6-D
24▲4Milwaukee Bradley Tech/Milwaukee Arts check15.086-C24 – · 6-C
25▼2Milwaukee Riverside/Golda Meir check14.947-C25 – · 7-C
26▼2Sun Prairie East checkSun Prairie14.227-D26 – · 7-D
27▲6Oshkosh West checkOshkosh13.397-B in27 – · 7-B
28▼1D.C. Everest checkSchofield13.117-A28 – · 7-A
29▼3Kimberly checkKimberly12.118-D29 – · 8-D
30–Wausau West checkWausau10.948-A30 – · 8-A
31▲5Janesville Parker checkJanesville10.788-B in31 – · 8-B
32▼3Milwaukee Hamilton/Audubon Technology check10.258-C32 – · 8-C
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼1Hortonville checkBelow cut lineHortonville9.94Below cut line dropped33 – · Out
34–Janesville Craig checkBelow cut lineJanesville9.89Below cut line34 – · Out
35▼4Green Bay Preble checkBelow cut lineGreen Bay9.61Below cut line dropped35 – · Out
36▲1Fond du Lac checkBelow cut lineFond du Lac9.17Below cut line36 – · Out
37▲1Oak Creek checkBelow cut lineOak Creek8.22Below cut line37 – · Out
38▼3Madison La Follette checkBelow cut lineMadison7.11Below cut line38 – · Out
39▲6Eau Claire North checkBelow cut lineEau Claire6.94Below cut line39 – · Out
40▲6Brookfield East checkBelow cut lineBrookfield5.50Below cut line40 – · Out
41▼2Appleton West checkBelow cut lineAppleton4.72Below cut line41 – · Out
42▼2Badger checkBelow cut lineLake Geneva4.06Below cut line42 – · Out
43–Madison West checkBelow cut lineMadison4.00Below cut line43 – · Out
44▼3Manitowoc Lincoln checkBelow cut lineManitowoc3.33Below cut line44 – · Out
45▼3Sheboygan North checkBelow cut lineSheboygan3.33Below cut line45 – · Out
46▼2Appleton East checkBelow cut lineAppleton2.78Below cut line46 – · Out
47–Kenosha Tremper checkBelow cut lineKenosha2.72Below cut line47 – · Out
48–Mukwonago checkBelow cut lineMukwonago2.72Below cut line48 – · Out
49–Sun Prairie West checkBelow cut lineSun Prairie1.39Below cut line49 – · Out
50T–Eau Claire Memorial checkBelow cut lineEau Claire0.00Below cut line50T – · Out
50T–Madison East checkBelow cut lineMadison0.00Below cut line50T – · Out
—Shorewood checkShorewood0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 9 (games dated Friday 2026-10-16 or earlier; WIAA deadline: completion before 11:59 p.m. Central; stored dates do not establish finish times). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: West De Pere (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-20Sun Prairie EastW6.5 (D1)6.5036.509yes
2026-08-27Appleton NorthW6.5 (D1)6.5032.009yes
2026-09-04De PereW6.5 (D1)6.5038.009yes
2026-09-11AshwaubenonW6 (D2)6.0031.509yes
2026-09-17Appleton WestW6.5 (D1)6.5018.009yes
2026-09-25PulaskiW6 (D2)6.0044.509yes
2026-10-02Bay PortW6.5 (D1)6.5050.509yes
2026-10-09Green Bay SouthwestW6 (D2)6.0012.009yes
2026-10-16Green Bay PrebleW6.5 (D1)6.5018.509yes

Tier 1 AVG = 57.00 ÷ 9 = 6.333. Tier 2 points = 36.50 + 32.00 + 38.00 + 31.50 + 18.00 + 44.50 + 50.50 + 12.00 + 18.50 = 281.50; opponents’ games = 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 81; Tier 2 AVG = 281.50 ÷ 81 = 3.475. Total = 6.333 + 9 × 3.475 = 37.61 (Tier 3 tie-break 10.85).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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