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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 1 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 3Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 8:48 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

Unresolved ties: Marquette and Oconomowoc (rank 8, seed #2); Kenosha Tremper and Sun Prairie East (rank 28, seed #7). Tied at rank 8, across the #2/#3 seed line: placement waits for WIAA's tie-break (Tier 3, then its own procedure). Their slots are left empty.

ES pick: West De Pere, 99.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 100%8 Appleton EastES pick: Stevens Point Area Senior High, 51.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Stevens Poin…ES 52%5 Chippewa FallsES pick: De Pere, 90.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 De PereES 90%6 Wausau WestES pick: Bay Port, 90.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Bay PortES 90%7 NeenahES pick: West De Pere, 90.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 91%4 Stevens Point Area Se…3 De PereES pick: Bay Port, 93.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Bay PortES 93%1 West De PereES pick: Bay Port, 50.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Bay PortES 50%ES pick: Hamilton, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HamiltonES 100%8 Sun Prairie WestES pick: Waunakee, 96.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 WaunakeeES 97%5 Middleton3 Appleton NorthES pick: Hudson, 81.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 HudsonES 82%2 Appleton WestES pick: Fond du Lac, 95.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.7 Fond du LacES 96%ES pick: Hamilton, 65.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HamiltonES 66%4 WaunakeeES pick: Hudson, 71.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 HudsonES 72%7 Fond du LacES pick: Hamilton, 87.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HamiltonES 88%6 HudsonES pick: Arrowhead, 99.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ArrowheadES 99%8 Janesville ParkerES pick: Verona, 88.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 VeronaES 88%5 Madison Memorial6 Green Bay Preble2 tie unresolved7 tie unresolvedES pick: Arrowhead, 93.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ArrowheadES 93%4 VeronaTBDTBD1 ArrowheadTBDES pick: Muskego, 99.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 100%8 Milwaukee ReaganES pick: Racine Case, 95.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Racine CaseES 96%5 Brookfield EastES pick: Kenosha Bradford, 92.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Kenosha Brad…ES 92%6 HortonvilleES pick: Indian Trail High School & Academy, 91.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Indian Trail…ES 92%7 Milwaukee Bradley Tec…ES pick: Muskego, 86.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 87%4 Racine CaseES pick: Kenosha Bradford, 88.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Kenosha Brad…ES 89%2 Indian Trail & Acad.ES pick: Muskego, 94.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 94%3 Kenosha Bradford2 Bay PortES pick: Hamilton, 53.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 HamiltonES 54%State semifinalTBD1 MuskegoState semifinal1 HamiltonTBDState finalRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 1 · Week 3 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 3. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 3. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 2: in Middleton (37 → 18), Neenah (37 → 27), Kenosha Tremper (37 → 28), Sun Prairie West (37 → 30), Janesville Parker (37 → 32), Milwaukee Reagan (37 → 32) · out Madison West (20 → 38), Mukwonago (20 → 38), Janesville Craig (26 → 35), D.C. Everest (26 → 40), Madison La Follette (26 → 40), Milwaukee Riverside/Golda Meir (26 → 40), Oshkosh West (26 → 40). Biggest climbs: Middleton ▲19, Bay Port ▲11, Stevens Point Area Senior High ▲11. Biggest drops: Appleton East ▼18, Sun Prairie East ▼16, Chippewa Falls ▼14.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–West De Pere checkDe Pere38.501-A1 – · 1-D
2–Arrowhead checkHartland38.171-C5 ▼3 · 2-B
3–Muskego checkMuskego37.831-D4 ▼1 · 1-C
4▼1Hamilton checkSussex31.501-B2 ▲2 · 1-B
5▲11Bay Port checkGreen Bay25.832-A3 ▲2 · 1-A
6▲3Indian Trail High School & Academy checkKenosha22.672-D12 ▼6 · 3-C
7▲10Appleton West checkAppleton18.002-B41 ▼34 · Out projected out
8T▲2Marquette checkMilwaukee17.17#216 ▼8 · 4-D
8T▼3Oconomowoc checkOconomowoc17.17#211 ▼3 · 3-B
10▲10Kenosha Bradford checkKenosha16.833-D14 ▼4 · 4-C
11▼1Appleton North checkAppleton16.833-B22 ▼11 · 6-A
12▼6De Pere checkDe Pere16.833-A18 ▼6 · 5-A
13▲7Verona checkVerona16.834-C8 ▲5 · 2-D
14▲6Racine Case checkRacine16.674-D7 ▲7 · 2-C
15▲11Stevens Point Area Senior High checkStevens Point16.504-A9 ▲6 · 3-A
16▲4Waunakee checkWaunakee16.334-B6 ▲10 · 2-A
17–Madison Memorial checkMadison15.505-C19 ▼2 · 5-D
18▲19Middleton checkMiddleton14.175-B in21 ▼3 · 6-B
19▲7Brookfield East checkBrookfield12.525-D40 ▼21 · Out projected out
20▼14Chippewa Falls checkChippewa Falls12.335-A23 ▼3 · 6-D
21▼13Hudson checkHudson12.176-B10 ▲11 · 3-D
22▼5Wausau West checkWausau12.176-A30 ▼8 · 8-A
23▼9Hortonville checkHortonville12.006-D33 ▼10 · Out projected out
24▼10Green Bay Preble checkGreen Bay11.506-C35 ▼11 · Out projected out
25▲1Fond du Lac checkFond du Lac10.177-B36 ▼11 · Out projected out
26–Milwaukee Bradley Tech/Milwaukee Arts check10.107-D24 ▲2 · 6-C
27▲10Neenah checkNeenah8.677-A in13 ▲14 · 4-A
28T▲9Kenosha Tremper checkKenosha8.50#7 in47 ▼19 · Out projected out
28T▼16Sun Prairie East checkSun Prairie8.50#726 ▲2 · 7-D
30▲7Sun Prairie West checkSun Prairie8.508-B in49 ▼19 · Out projected out
31▼18Appleton East checkAppleton8.178-A46 ▼15 · Out projected out
32T▲5Janesville Parker checkJanesville8.178-C in31 ▲1 · 8-B
32T▲5Milwaukee Reagan checkMilwaukee8.178-D in15 ▲17 · 4-B
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
34▲3Franklin checkBelow cut lineFranklin8.00Below cut line20 ▲14 · 5-C projected in
35▼9Janesville Craig checkBelow cut lineJanesville4.17Below cut line dropped34 ▲1 · Out
36▼1Milwaukee Pulaski/Carmen Southgate checkBelow cut line4.00Below cut line17 ▲19 · 5-B projected in
37▼2Sheboygan North checkBelow cut lineSheboygan3.83Below cut line45 ▼8 · Out
38T▼18Madison West checkBelow cut lineMadison2.17Below cut line dropped43 ▼5 · Out
38T▼18Mukwonago checkBelow cut lineMukwonago2.17Below cut line dropped48 ▼10 · Out
40T▼14D.C. Everest checkBelow cut lineSchofield2.00Below cut line dropped28 ▲12 · 7-A projected in
40T▼14Madison La Follette checkBelow cut lineMadison2.00Below cut line dropped38 ▲2 · Out
40T▼14Milwaukee Riverside/Golda Meir checkBelow cut line2.00Below cut line dropped25 ▲15 · 7-C projected in
40T▼3Oak Creek checkBelow cut lineOak Creek2.00Below cut line37 ▲3 · Out
40T▼14Oshkosh West checkBelow cut lineOshkosh2.00Below cut line dropped27 ▲13 · 7-B projected in
45T▼8Badger checkBelow cut lineLake Geneva0.00Below cut line42 ▲3 · Out
45T▼8Eau Claire Memorial checkBelow cut lineEau Claire0.00Below cut line50T ▼5 · Out
45T▼8Eau Claire North checkBelow cut lineEau Claire0.00Below cut line39 ▲6 · Out
45T▼8Kimberly checkBelow cut lineKimberly0.00Below cut line29 ▲16 · 8-D projected in
45T▼8Madison East checkBelow cut lineMadison0.00Below cut line50T ▼5 · Out
45T▼8Manitowoc Lincoln checkBelow cut lineManitowoc0.00Below cut line44 ▲1 · Out
45T▼8Milwaukee Hamilton/Audubon Technology checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line32 ▲13 · 8-C projected in
—Shorewood checkShorewood0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 3 (games through Saturday 2026-09-05). 33 of 51 in the field, 29 placed (4 waiting on a tie-break).

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: West De Pere (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-20Sun Prairie EastW6.5 (D1)6.506.003yes
2026-08-27Appleton NorthW6.5 (D1)6.5013.003yes
2026-09-04De PereW6.5 (D1)6.5013.003yes

Tier 1 AVG = 19.50 ÷ 3 = 6.500. Tier 2 points = 6.00 + 13.00 + 13.00 = 32.00; opponents’ games = 3 + 3 + 3 = 9; Tier 2 AVG = 32.00 ÷ 9 = 3.556. Total = 6.500 + 9 × 3.556 = 38.50 (Tier 3 tie-break 10.50).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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