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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 1 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 6Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 10:34 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Bay Port, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 99%8 Green Bay PrebleES pick: Hudson, 89.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 HudsonES 89%5 MiddletonES pick: Stevens Point Area Senior High, 91.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Stevens Poin…ES 92%6 Wausau WestES pick: Verona, 61.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 VeronaES 62%7 Chippewa FallsES pick: Bay Port, 86.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 86%4 Hudson3 Stevens Point Area Se…ES pick: Verona, 63.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 VeronaES 64%ES pick: Bay Port, 88.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 88%2 VeronaES pick: Hamilton, 94.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HamiltonES 94%8 Fond du LacES pick: Marquette, 71.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 MarquetteES 72%5 De PereES pick: Kenosha Bradford, 60.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Kenosha Brad…ES 61%6 NeenahES pick: Arrowhead, 99.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ArrowheadES 99%7 HortonvilleES pick: Hamilton, 88.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HamiltonES 89%4 Marquette3 Kenosha BradfordES pick: Arrowhead, 92.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ArrowheadES 93%1 HamiltonES pick: Arrowhead, 57.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ArrowheadES 58%ES pick: Muskego, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 98%8 Sun Prairie EastES pick: Franklin, 99.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 FranklinES 99%5 Milwaukee ReaganES pick: Indian Trail High School & Academy, 96.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Indian Trail…ES 96%6 Milwaukee Pulaski/Car…ES pick: Racine Case, 99.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Racine CaseES 100%7 Milwaukee Bradley Tec…ES pick: Muskego, 85.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 85%4 Franklin3 Indian Trail & Acad.ES pick: Racine Case, 96.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Racine CaseES 96%ES pick: Muskego, 86.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 87%2 Racine CaseES pick: West De Pere, 99.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 100%8 Appleton WestES pick: Waunakee, 97.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 WaunakeeES 97%5 Madison MemorialES pick: Appleton North, 69.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Appleton Nor…ES 70%6 D.C. EverestES pick: Oconomowoc, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 OconomowocES 98%7 Janesville CraigES pick: West De Pere, 58.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 58%4 Waunakee3 Appleton NorthES pick: Oconomowoc, 92.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 OconomowocES 92%ES pick: West De Pere, 73.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 73%2 Oconomowoc1 Bay PortES pick: Arrowhead, 65.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 ArrowheadES 65%State semifinalES pick: Muskego, 74.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MuskegoES 74%1 West De PereState semifinal2 ArrowheadES pick: Muskego, 56.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MuskegoES 56%State final · ES pick: MuskegoRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 1 · Week 6 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 6. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 6. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 5: in Milwaukee Reagan (33 → 20), Neenah (34 → 23), Janesville Craig (35 → 28) · out Milwaukee Hamilton/Audubon Technology (22 → 33), Kimberly (30 → 34), Janesville Parker (31 → 35). Biggest climbs: Milwaukee Reagan ▲13, Hudson ▲12, Neenah ▲11. Biggest drops: Sun Prairie East ▼8, Chippewa Falls ▼6, Waunakee ▼5.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–West De Pere checkDe Pere40.961-D1 – · 1-D
2–Bay Port checkGreen Bay34.831-A3 ▼1 · 1-A
3–Hamilton checkSussex31.421-B2 ▲1 · 1-B
4▲1Muskego checkMuskego30.291-C4 – · 1-C
5▲1Arrowhead checkHartland29.882-B5 – · 2-B
6▼2Oconomowoc checkOconomowoc29.292-D11 ▼5 · 3-B
7▲3Verona checkVerona24.542-A8 ▼1 · 2-D
8▲3Racine Case checkRacine24.132-C7 ▲1 · 2-C
9▼2Appleton North checkAppleton23.253-D22 ▼13 · 6-A
10▲3Indian Trail High School & Academy checkKenosha20.793-C12 ▼2 · 3-C
11▼2Stevens Point Area Senior High checkStevens Point20.793-A9 ▲2 · 3-A
12–Kenosha Bradford checkKenosha19.633-B14 ▼2 · 4-C
13▼5Waunakee checkWaunakee19.254-D6 ▲7 · 2-A
14▲12Hudson checkHudson17.544-A10 ▲4 · 3-D
15▼1Franklin checkFranklin17.174-C20 ▼5 · 5-C
16▼1Marquette checkMilwaukee16.834-B16 – · 4-D
17–De Pere checkDe Pere16.585-B18 ▼1 · 5-A
18▼2Middleton checkMiddleton15.885-A21 ▼3 · 6-B
19▲1Madison Memorial checkMadison15.885-D19 – · 5-D
20▲13Milwaukee Reagan checkMilwaukee15.575-C in15 ▲5 · 4-B
21▼3D.C. Everest checkSchofield15.466-D28 ▼7 · 7-A
22▼3Wausau West checkWausau14.836-A30 ▼8 · 8-A
23▲11Neenah checkNeenah14.386-B in13 ▲10 · 4-A
24–Milwaukee Pulaski/Carmen Southgate check14.116-C17 ▲7 · 5-B
25▲4Hortonville checkHortonville13.177-B33 ▼8 · Out projected out
26▲1Milwaukee Bradley Tech/Milwaukee Arts check12.517-C24 ▲2 · 6-C
27▼6Chippewa Falls checkChippewa Falls11.797-A23 ▲4 · 6-D
28▲7Janesville Craig checkJanesville11.047-D in34 ▼6 · Out projected out
29▼4Green Bay Preble checkGreen Bay10.258-A35 ▼6 · Out projected out
30▲2Fond du Lac checkFond du Lac9.428-B36 ▼6 · Out projected out
31▼8Sun Prairie East checkSun Prairie9.218-C26 ▲5 · 7-D
32▼4Appleton West checkAppleton9.138-D41 ▼9 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼11Milwaukee Hamilton/Audubon Technology checkBelow cut line9.00Below cut line dropped32 ▲1 · 8-C projected in
34▼4Kimberly checkBelow cut lineKimberly8.54Below cut line dropped29 ▲5 · 8-D projected in
35▼4Janesville Parker checkBelow cut lineJanesville8.54Below cut line dropped31 ▲4 · 8-B projected in
36▲3Oshkosh West checkBelow cut lineOshkosh8.33Below cut line27 ▲9 · 7-B projected in
37▲11Badger checkBelow cut lineLake Geneva8.13Below cut line42 ▼5 · Out
38▲6Oak Creek checkBelow cut lineOak Creek7.71Below cut line37 ▲1 · Out
39▲4Milwaukee Riverside/Golda Meir checkBelow cut line7.45Below cut line25 ▲14 · 7-C projected in
40▼4Sheboygan North checkBelow cut lineSheboygan6.04Below cut line45 ▼5 · Out
41▼1Brookfield East checkBelow cut lineBrookfield5.71Below cut line40 ▲1 · Out
42▲4Mukwonago checkBelow cut lineMukwonago5.08Below cut line48 ▼6 · Out
43▼1Madison La Follette checkBelow cut lineMadison4.79Below cut line38 ▲5 · Out
44▼7Kenosha Tremper checkBelow cut lineKenosha4.13Below cut line47 ▼3 · Out
45▼7Appleton East checkBelow cut lineAppleton4.08Below cut line46 ▼1 · Out
46▼5Madison West checkBelow cut lineMadison3.71Below cut line43 ▲3 · Out
47▼2Sun Prairie West checkBelow cut lineSun Prairie2.63Below cut line49 ▼2 · Out
48▼1Eau Claire North checkBelow cut lineEau Claire1.08Below cut line39 ▲9 · Out
49T–Eau Claire Memorial checkBelow cut lineEau Claire0.00Below cut line50T ▼1 · Out
49T–Madison East checkBelow cut lineMadison0.00Below cut line50T ▼1 · Out
49T–Manitowoc Lincoln checkBelow cut lineManitowoc0.00Below cut line44 ▲5 · Out
—Shorewood checkShorewood0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 6 (games through Saturday 2026-09-26). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: West De Pere (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-20Sun Prairie EastW6.5 (D1)6.5018.506yes
2026-08-27Appleton NorthW6.5 (D1)6.5025.506yes
2026-09-04De PereW6.5 (D1)6.5026.006yes
2026-09-11AshwaubenonW6 (D2)6.0025.006yes
2026-09-17Appleton WestW6.5 (D1)6.5018.006yes
2026-09-25PulaskiW6 (D2)6.0025.506yes

Tier 1 AVG = 38.00 ÷ 6 = 6.333. Tier 2 points = 18.50 + 25.50 + 26.00 + 25.00 + 18.00 + 25.50 = 138.50; opponents’ games = 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 = 36; Tier 2 AVG = 138.50 ÷ 36 = 3.847. Total = 6.333 + 9 × 3.847 = 40.96 (Tier 3 tie-break 11.35).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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