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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 1 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 8Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 10:34 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: West De Pere, 99.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 99%8 Green Bay Preble4 De PereES pick: Neenah, 56.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 NeenahES 57%3 Indian Trail & Acad.ES pick: Appleton North, 61.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Appleton Nor…ES 62%ES pick: Waunakee, 92.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 WaunakeeES 92%7 KimberlyES pick: West De Pere, 88.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 89%5 Neenah6 Appleton NorthES pick: Waunakee, 95.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 WaunakeeES 96%ES pick: West De Pere, 58.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 58%2 WaunakeeES pick: Bay Port, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 99%8 Wausau WestES pick: Hudson, 89.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 HudsonES 89%5 MiddletonES pick: Oconomowoc, 79.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 OconomowocES 79%6 Chippewa FallsES pick: Stevens Point Area Senior High, 86.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Stevens Poin…ES 87%7 D.C. EverestES pick: Bay Port, 86.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 86%4 HudsonES pick: Oconomowoc, 75.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 OconomowocES 75%2 Stevens Point Area Se…ES pick: Bay Port, 76.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 77%3 OconomowocES pick: Hamilton, 98.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HamiltonES 99%8 HortonvilleES pick: Marquette, 99.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 MarquetteES 100%5 Milwaukee Pulaski/Car…ES pick: Racine Case, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Racine CaseES 100%6 Milwaukee Riverside/G…ES pick: Arrowhead, 99.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ArrowheadES 100%7 Milwaukee Bradley Tec…ES pick: Hamilton, 88.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HamiltonES 89%4 Marquette3 Racine CaseES pick: Arrowhead, 83.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ArrowheadES 84%1 HamiltonES pick: Arrowhead, 57.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ArrowheadES 58%ES pick: Muskego, 100.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 100%8 Milwaukee Hamilton/Au…4 Milwaukee ReaganES pick: Franklin, 99.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 FranklinES 99%ES pick: Kenosha Bradford, 81.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Kenosha Brad…ES 82%6 Sun Prairie EastES pick: Verona, 88.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 VeronaES 88%7 Madison MemorialES pick: Muskego, 85.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 85%5 Franklin3 Kenosha BradfordES pick: Verona, 51.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 VeronaES 51%ES pick: Muskego, 94.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 95%2 Verona1 West De PereES pick: Bay Port, 54.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Bay PortES 54%State semifinal2 ArrowheadES pick: Muskego, 56.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MuskegoES 56%State semifinal1 Bay PortES pick: Muskego, 70.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MuskegoES 71%State final · ES pick: MuskegoRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 1 · Week 8 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 8. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 8. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 7: in Milwaukee Hamilton/Audubon Technology (35 → 29) · out Oshkosh West (32 → 33). Biggest climbs: Milwaukee Reagan ▲7, Milwaukee Hamilton/Audubon Technology ▲6, Franklin ▲4. Biggest drops: Madison Memorial ▼6, Wausau West ▼5, Oconomowoc ▼4.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–West De Pere checkDe Pere39.851-A1 – · 1-D
2▲1Hamilton checkSussex31.081-C2 – · 1-B
3▼1Muskego checkMuskego30.961-D4 ▼1 · 1-C
4–Bay Port checkGreen Bay30.451-B3 ▲1 · 1-A
5▲3Waunakee checkWaunakee27.092-A6 ▼1 · 2-A
6–Arrowhead checkHartland26.732-C5 ▲1 · 2-B
7▲2Stevens Point Area Senior High checkStevens Point25.622-B9 ▼2 · 3-A
8▲3Verona checkVerona25.452-D8 – · 2-D
9▼4Oconomowoc checkOconomowoc24.263-B11 ▼2 · 3-B
10▼3Racine Case checkRacine23.923-C7 ▲3 · 2-C
11▼1Indian Trail High School & Academy checkKenosha22.033-A12 ▼1 · 3-C
12▲1Kenosha Bradford checkKenosha21.203-D14 ▼2 · 4-C
13▲1Marquette checkMilwaukee20.524-C16 ▼3 · 4-D
14▲1Hudson checkHudson20.284-B10 ▲4 · 3-D
15▲7Milwaukee Reagan checkMilwaukee18.284-D15 – · 4-B
16▼4De Pere checkDe Pere17.994-A18 ▼2 · 5-A
17▲4Franklin checkFranklin17.935-D20 ▼3 · 5-C
18▲2Neenah checkNeenah17.495-A13 ▲5 · 4-A
19▼3Middleton checkMiddleton17.495-B21 ▼2 · 6-B
20▼2Milwaukee Pulaski/Carmen Southgate check17.475-C17 ▲3 · 5-B
21▼4Appleton North checkAppleton17.436-A22 ▼1 · 6-A
22▲2Chippewa Falls checkChippewa Falls16.926-B23 ▼1 · 6-D
23▲3Milwaukee Riverside/Golda Meir check15.286-C25 ▼2 · 7-C
24▲4Sun Prairie East checkSun Prairie14.856-D26 ▼2 · 7-D
25▼6Madison Memorial checkMadison14.387-D19 ▲6 · 5-D
26▲4Kimberly checkKimberly14.017-A29 ▼3 · 8-D
27▼4D.C. Everest checkSchofield12.697-B28 ▼1 · 7-A
28▲3Milwaukee Bradley Tech/Milwaukee Arts check12.547-C24 ▲4 · 6-C
29▲6Milwaukee Hamilton/Audubon Technology check12.048-D in32 ▼3 · 8-C
30▼5Wausau West checkWausau11.688-B30 – · 8-A
31▼4Green Bay Preble checkGreen Bay11.038-A35 ▼4 · Out projected out
32▼3Hortonville checkHortonville10.538-C33 ▼1 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼1Oshkosh West checkBelow cut lineOshkosh10.32Below cut line dropped27 ▲6 · 7-B projected in
34▼1Janesville Craig checkBelow cut lineJanesville10.29Below cut line34 – · Out
35▲11Madison La Follette checkBelow cut lineMadison7.69Below cut line38 ▼3 · Out
36▲2Janesville Parker checkBelow cut lineJanesville6.94Below cut line31 ▲5 · 8-B projected in
37▼3Fond du Lac checkBelow cut lineFond du Lac6.80Below cut line36 ▲1 · Out
38▼2Oak Creek checkBelow cut lineOak Creek6.60Below cut line37 ▲1 · Out
39▼2Appleton West checkBelow cut lineAppleton5.70Below cut line41 ▼2 · Out
40▼1Badger checkBelow cut lineLake Geneva4.95Below cut line42 ▼2 · Out
41▲8Manitowoc Lincoln checkBelow cut lineManitowoc4.02Below cut line44 ▼3 · Out
42▼2Sheboygan North checkBelow cut lineSheboygan3.95Below cut line45 ▼3 · Out
43▲2Madison West checkBelow cut lineMadison3.91Below cut line43 – · Out
44▼3Appleton East checkBelow cut lineAppleton3.41Below cut line46 ▼2 · Out
45▲3Eau Claire North checkBelow cut lineEau Claire3.32Below cut line39 ▲6 · Out
46▼4Brookfield East checkBelow cut lineBrookfield3.32Below cut line40 ▲6 · Out
47▼4Kenosha Tremper checkBelow cut lineKenosha3.26Below cut line47 – · Out
48▼4Mukwonago checkBelow cut lineMukwonago3.25Below cut line48 – · Out
49▼2Sun Prairie West checkBelow cut lineSun Prairie1.66Below cut line49 – · Out
50T–Eau Claire Memorial checkBelow cut lineEau Claire0.00Below cut line50T – · Out
50T–Madison East checkBelow cut lineMadison0.00Below cut line50T – · Out
—Shorewood checkShorewood0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 8 (games through Saturday 2026-10-10). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: West De Pere (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-20Sun Prairie EastW6.5 (D1)6.5030.508yes
2026-08-27Appleton NorthW6.5 (D1)6.5032.008yes
2026-09-04De PereW6.5 (D1)6.5032.008yes
2026-09-11AshwaubenonW6 (D2)6.0031.508yes
2026-09-17Appleton WestW6.5 (D1)6.5018.008yes
2026-09-25PulaskiW6 (D2)6.0038.008yes
2026-10-02Bay PortW6.5 (D1)6.5044.508yes
2026-10-09Green Bay SouthwestW6 (D2)6.0012.008yes

Tier 1 AVG = 50.50 ÷ 8 = 6.313. Tier 2 points = 30.50 + 32.00 + 32.00 + 31.50 + 18.00 + 38.00 + 44.50 + 12.00 = 238.50; opponents’ games = 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 = 64; Tier 2 AVG = 238.50 ÷ 64 = 3.727. Total = 6.313 + 9 × 3.727 = 39.85 (Tier 3 tie-break 12.16).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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