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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 2 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 4Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 8:47 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Holmen, 87.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HolmenES 88%8 OregonES pick: Beaver Dam, 91.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Beaver DamES 91%5 Westosha CentralES pick: Grafton, 51.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 GraftonES 51%6 MenashaES pick: Menomonee Falls, 60.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Menomonee Fa…ES 60%7 Oshkosh NorthES pick: Holmen, 59.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HolmenES 59%4 Beaver DamES pick: Grafton, 74.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 GraftonES 75%2 Menomonee FallsES pick: Holmen, 71.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HolmenES 71%3 GraftonES pick: New Richmond, 98.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New RichmondES 98%8 DeForestES pick: Kaukauna, 93.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 KaukaunaES 94%5 Wausau EastES pick: Pulaski, 87.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 PulaskiES 87%6 AshwaubenonES pick: Notre Dame, 90.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Notre DameES 90%7 River FallsES pick: New Richmond, 87.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New RichmondES 87%4 Kaukauna3 PulaskiES pick: Notre Dame, 76.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Notre DameES 76%ES pick: New Richmond, 63.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New RichmondES 64%2 Notre DameES pick: Monona Grove, 95.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Monona GroveES 96%8 Waukesha WestES pick: West Bend West, 71.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 West Bend We…ES 71%5 Slinger3 BurlingtonES pick: La Crosse Central, 82.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 La Crosse Ce…ES 83%ES pick: Elkhorn, 86.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ElkhornES 87%7 GreenfieldES pick: Monona Grove, 88.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Monona GroveES 89%4 West Bend West6 La Crosse CentralES pick: Elkhorn, 52.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ElkhornES 52%ES pick: Monona Grove, 86.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Monona GroveES 87%2 ElkhornES pick: Union Grove, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Union GroveES 98%8 Milwaukee KingES pick: Homestead, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 HomesteadES 100%5 Racine Horlick3 Wauwatosa EastES pick: Marshfield, 83.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 MarshfieldES 83%2 Waukesha SouthES pick: Brookfield Central, 76.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.7 Brookfield C…ES 77%1 Union GroveES pick: Homestead, 50.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 HomesteadES 50%6 MarshfieldES pick: Brookfield Central, 60.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.7 Brookfield C…ES 60%ES pick: Homestead, 76.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 HomesteadES 76%7 Brookfield Central1 HolmenES pick: New Richmond, 84.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 New RichmondES 84%State semifinalES pick: Monona Grove, 63.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Monona GroveES 63%4 HomesteadState semifinal1 New RichmondES pick: Monona Grove, 50.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Monona GroveES 50%State final · ES pick: Monona GroveRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 2 · Week 4 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 4. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 4. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 3: in Kaukauna (34 → 14), River Falls (36 → 25), Oshkosh North (40 → 27) · out Watertown (30 → 35), Wisconsin Rapids Lincoln (31 → 37), Nicolet (32 → 40). Biggest climbs: Kaukauna ▲20, Oshkosh North ▲13, Homestead ▲11. Biggest drops: Waukesha West ▼14, Brookfield Central ▼13, Greenfield ▼12.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲1Union Grove checkUnion Grove35.411-D3 ▼2 · 1-D
2▲4New Richmond checkNew Richmond30.841-B1 ▲1 · 1-B
3–Holmen checkHolmen29.411-A9 ▼6 · 3-B
4▲5Monona Grove checkMonona26.781-C4 – · 1-A
5▲3Elkhorn checkElkhorn22.252-C5 – · 2-A
6▲4Waukesha South checkWaukesha20.812-D13 ▼7 · 4-D
7▼2Notre Dame checkGreen Bay20.592-B2 ▲5 · 1-C
8▼7Menomonee Falls checkMenomonee Falls20.532-A20 ▼12 · 5-C
9▼2Wauwatosa East checkWauwatosa20.093-D17 ▼8 · 5-D
10▼6Burlington checkBurlington20.093-C28 ▼18 · 7-A
11–Pulaski checkPulaski18.943-B10 ▲1 · 3-C
12▲3Grafton checkGrafton17.593-A24 ▼12 · 6-A
13▲11Homestead checkMequon16.694-D6 ▲7 · 2-D
14▲20Kaukauna checkKaukauna15.444-B in8 ▲6 · 2-C
15▲4West Bend West checkWest Bend15.004-C11 ▲4 · 3-D
16▼4Beaver Dam checkBeaver Dam14.944-A7 ▲9 · 2-B
17▼3Slinger checkSlinger14.915-C23 ▼6 · 6-D
18–Racine Horlick checkRacine13.535-D35 ▼17 · Out projected out
19▲9Wausau East checkWausau13.165-B16 ▲3 · 4-A
20▲5Westosha Central checkSalem12.845-A27 ▼7 · 7-D
21▲1La Crosse Central checkLa Crosse12.166-C14 ▲7 · 4-B
22▼1Marshfield checkMarshfield11.666-D18 ▲4 · 5-A
23–Ashwaubenon checkAshwaubenon11.226-B22 ▲1 · 6-C
24▲2Menasha checkMenasha10.566-A15 ▲9 · 4-C
25▲11River Falls checkRiver Falls10.447-B in21 ▲4 · 6-B
26▼13Brookfield Central checkBrookfield10.167-D26 – · 7-B
27▲13Oshkosh North checkOshkosh10.097-A in25 ▲2 · 7-C
28▼12Greenfield checkGreenfield9.257-C12 ▲16 · 3-A
29▼3Oregon checkOregon8.948-A33 ▼4 · Out projected out
30▼1Milwaukee King checkMilwaukee8.668-D30 – · 8-D
31▼14Waukesha West checkWaukesha8.668-C19 ▲12 · 5-B
32▼12DeForest checkDeForest7.698-B32 – · 8-B
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▲7West Allis Hale checkBelow cut lineWest Allis7.41Below cut line46 ▼13 · Out
34▲4Germantown checkBelow cut lineGermantown6.78Below cut line29 ▲5 · 8-C projected in
35▼5Watertown checkBelow cut lineWatertown5.28Below cut line dropped43 ▼8 · Out
36–Superior checkBelow cut lineSuperior5.28Below cut line37 ▼1 · Out
37▼6Wisconsin Rapids Lincoln checkBelow cut lineWisconsin Rapids5.16Below cut line dropped39 ▼2 · Out
38▲2Milton checkBelow cut lineMilton5.00Below cut line31 ▲7 · 8-A projected in
39▼6West Allis Central checkBelow cut lineWest Allis4.59Below cut line42 ▼3 · Out
40▼8Nicolet checkBelow cut lineGlendale4.47Below cut line dropped36 ▲4 · Out
41▼6Green Bay Southwest checkBelow cut lineGreen Bay3.00Below cut line41 – · Out
42▼4Cedarburg checkBelow cut lineCedarburg1.50Below cut line45 ▼3 · Out
43T▼3Beloit Memorial checkBelow cut lineBeloit0.00Below cut line47T ▼4 · Out
43T▼3Green Bay East checkBelow cut lineGreen Bay0.00Below cut line47T ▼4 · Out
43T▼3Hartford Union checkBelow cut lineHartford0.00Below cut line38 ▲5 · Out
43T▼3Kettle Moraine checkBelow cut lineWales0.00Below cut line47T ▼4 · Out
43T▼3Menomonie checkBelow cut lineMenomonie0.00Below cut line34 ▲9 · Out
43T▼3Milwaukee Marshall checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut lineExcluded
43T▼3Racine Park checkBelow cut lineRacine0.00Below cut line47T ▼4 · Out
43T▼3Rice Lake checkBelow cut lineRice Lake0.00Below cut line44 ▼1 · Out
43T▼3Sheboygan South checkBelow cut lineSheboygan0.00Below cut line40 ▲3 · Out
—Milwaukee South checkMilwaukee0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 4 (games through Saturday 2026-09-12). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Union Grove (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Kettle MoraineW6 (D2)6.000.004yes
2026-08-28Whitefish BayW5.5 (D3)5.5017.004yes
2026-09-04ElkhornW6 (D2)6.0017.004yes
2026-09-11BurlingtonW6 (D2)6.0018.504yes

Tier 1 AVG = 23.50 ÷ 4 = 5.875. Tier 2 points = 0.00 + 17.00 + 17.00 + 18.50 = 52.50; opponents’ games = 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 16; Tier 2 AVG = 52.50 ÷ 16 = 3.281. Total = 5.875 + 9 × 3.281 = 35.41 (Tier 3 tie-break 12.52).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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