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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 2 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 5Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 9:31 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Monona Grove, 97.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Monona GroveES 98%8 MiltonES pick: Beaver Dam, 89.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Beaver DamES 90%5 Oshkosh North3 Waukesha SouthES pick: Slinger, 52.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 SlingerES 52%ES pick: Elkhorn, 99.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ElkhornES 99%7 Racine HorlickES pick: Monona Grove, 88.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Monona GroveES 89%4 Beaver Dam6 SlingerES pick: Elkhorn, 74.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ElkhornES 75%ES pick: Monona Grove, 86.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Monona GroveES 87%2 ElkhornES pick: New Richmond, 97.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New RichmondES 97%8 OregonES pick: Kaukauna, 83.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 KaukaunaES 83%5 AshwaubenonES pick: River Falls, 87.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 River FallsES 88%6 Wausau EastES pick: Pulaski, 59.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 PulaskiES 59%7 La Crosse CentralES pick: New Richmond, 87.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New RichmondES 87%4 Kaukauna3 River FallsES pick: Pulaski, 77.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 PulaskiES 78%ES pick: New Richmond, 82.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New RichmondES 83%2 PulaskiES pick: Holmen, 81.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HolmenES 81%8 Waukesha West4 MenashaES pick: Marshfield, 51.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 MarshfieldES 52%ES pick: Homestead, 82.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 HomesteadES 82%6 West Bend WestES pick: Notre Dame, 95.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Notre DameES 96%7 GreenfieldES pick: Holmen, 64.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HolmenES 64%5 Marshfield3 HomesteadES pick: Notre Dame, 56.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Notre DameES 57%1 HolmenES pick: Notre Dame, 74.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Notre DameES 75%ES pick: Union Grove, 97.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Union GroveES 97%8 Westosha Central4 BurlingtonES pick: Grafton, 68.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 GraftonES 68%3 Wauwatosa EastES pick: Germantown, 78.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 GermantownES 79%2 Menomonee FallsES pick: Brookfield Central, 88.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.7 Brookfield C…ES 88%ES pick: Union Grove, 86.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Union GroveES 87%5 Grafton6 GermantownES pick: Brookfield Central, 67.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.7 Brookfield C…ES 67%ES pick: Union Grove, 72.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Union GroveES 73%7 Brookfield CentralES pick: Monona Grove, 50.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Monona GroveES 50%1 New RichmondState semifinalES pick: Notre Dame, 56.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 Notre DameES 57%1 Union GroveState semifinalES pick: Monona Grove, 60.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Monona GroveES 61%2 Notre DameState final · ES pick: Monona GroveRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 2 · Week 5 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 5. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 5. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 4: in Germantown (34 → 24), Milton (38 → 30) · out Milwaukee King (30 → 34), DeForest (32 → 35). Biggest climbs: River Falls ▲13, Menasha ▲11, Germantown ▲10. Biggest drops: Racine Horlick ▼10, Westosha Central ▼9, West Bend West ▼7.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲1New Richmond checkNew Richmond35.561-B1 – · 1-B
2▲1Holmen checkHolmen35.201-C9 ▼7 · 3-B
3▼2Union Grove checkUnion Grove34.421-D3 – · 1-D
4–Monona Grove checkMonona26.181-A4 – · 1-A
5▲6Pulaski checkPulaski23.102-B10 ▼5 · 3-C
6▲2Menomonee Falls checkMenomonee Falls21.082-D20 ▼14 · 5-C
7▼2Elkhorn checkElkhorn20.182-A5 ▲2 · 2-A
8▼1Notre Dame checkGreen Bay20.062-C2 ▲6 · 1-C
9–Wauwatosa East checkWauwatosa19.543-D17 ▼8 · 5-D
10▲3Homestead checkMequon19.503-C6 ▲4 · 2-D
11▼5Waukesha South checkWaukesha18.363-A13 ▼2 · 4-D
12▲13River Falls checkRiver Falls17.663-B21 ▼9 · 6-B
13▲11Menasha checkMenasha16.484-C15 ▼2 · 4-C
14–Kaukauna checkKaukauna15.324-B8 ▲6 · 2-C
15▲1Beaver Dam checkBeaver Dam15.304-A7 ▲8 · 2-B
16▼6Burlington checkBurlington14.804-D28 ▼12 · 7-A
17▼5Grafton checkGrafton14.765-D24 ▼7 · 6-A
18▲9Oshkosh North checkOshkosh14.285-A25 ▼7 · 7-C
19▲3Marshfield checkMarshfield13.905-C18 ▲1 · 5-A
20▲3Ashwaubenon checkAshwaubenon12.445-B22 ▼2 · 6-C
21▼4Slinger checkSlinger12.426-A23 ▼2 · 6-D
22▼7West Bend West checkWest Bend12.186-C11 ▲11 · 3-D
23▼4Wausau East checkWausau11.026-B16 ▲7 · 4-A
24▲10Germantown checkGermantown10.646-D in29 ▼5 · 8-C
25▼4La Crosse Central checkLa Crosse10.227-B14 ▲11 · 4-B
26▲2Greenfield checkGreenfield9.587-C12 ▲14 · 3-A
27▼1Brookfield Central checkBrookfield9.167-D26 ▲1 · 7-B
28▼10Racine Horlick checkRacine9.167-A35 ▼7 · Out projected out
29▼9Westosha Central checkSalem8.708-D27 ▲2 · 7-D
30▲8Milton checkMilton8.628-A in31 ▼1 · 8-A
31–Waukesha West checkWaukesha7.008-C19 ▲12 · 5-B
32▼3Oregon checkOregon6.168-B33 ▼1 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▲4Wisconsin Rapids Lincoln checkBelow cut lineWisconsin Rapids5.88Below cut line39 ▼6 · Out
34▼4Milwaukee King checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee5.80Below cut line dropped30 ▲4 · 8-D projected in
35▼3DeForest checkBelow cut lineDeForest5.16Below cut line dropped32 ▲3 · 8-B projected in
36▼3West Allis Hale checkBelow cut lineWest Allis4.98Below cut line46 ▼10 · Out
37▼1Superior checkBelow cut lineSuperior4.94Below cut line37 – · Out
38▲3Green Bay Southwest checkBelow cut lineGreen Bay4.74Below cut line41 ▼3 · Out
39▼4Watertown checkBelow cut lineWatertown3.64Below cut line43 ▼4 · Out
40▼1West Allis Central checkBelow cut lineWest Allis3.36Below cut line42 ▼2 · Out
41▼1Nicolet checkBelow cut lineGlendale3.08Below cut line36 ▲5 · Out
42▲1Sheboygan South checkBelow cut lineSheboygan1.30Below cut line40 ▲2 · Out
43T▼1Cedarburg checkBelow cut lineCedarburg1.20Below cut line45 ▼2 · Out
43T–Menomonie checkBelow cut lineMenomonie1.20Below cut line34 ▲9 · Out
45T▼2Beloit Memorial checkBelow cut lineBeloit0.00Below cut line47T ▼2 · Out
45T▼2Green Bay East checkBelow cut lineGreen Bay0.00Below cut line47T ▼2 · Out
45T▼2Hartford Union checkBelow cut lineHartford0.00Below cut line38 ▲7 · Out
45T▼2Kettle Moraine checkBelow cut lineWales0.00Below cut line47T ▼2 · Out
45T▼2Milwaukee Marshall checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut lineExcluded
45T▼2Racine Park checkBelow cut lineRacine0.00Below cut line47T ▼2 · Out
45T▼2Rice Lake checkBelow cut lineRice Lake0.00Below cut line44 ▲1 · Out
—Milwaukee South checkMilwaukee0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 5 (games through Saturday 2026-09-19). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: New Richmond (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-20Eau Claire MemorialW6.5 (D1)6.500.005yes
2026-08-27Stevens Point Area Senior HighW6.5 (D1)6.5024.505yes
2026-09-04SuperiorW6 (D2)6.0013.005yes
2026-09-11Chippewa FallsW6.5 (D1)6.5019.005yes
2026-09-18HudsonW6.5 (D1)6.5024.505yes

Tier 1 AVG = 32.00 ÷ 5 = 6.400. Tier 2 points = 0.00 + 24.50 + 13.00 + 19.00 + 24.50 = 81.00; opponents’ games = 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 25; Tier 2 AVG = 81.00 ÷ 25 = 3.240. Total = 6.400 + 9 × 3.240 = 35.56 (Tier 3 tie-break 7.13).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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