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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 2 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 9Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 9:31 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Monona Grove, 97.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Monona GroveES 98%8 Milton4 Wausau EastES pick: Marshfield, 88.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 MarshfieldES 89%3 GreenfieldES pick: Grafton, 69.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 GraftonES 69%ES pick: Elkhorn, 86.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ElkhornES 86%7 BurlingtonES pick: Monona Grove, 90.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Monona GroveES 91%5 Marshfield6 GraftonES pick: Elkhorn, 70.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ElkhornES 71%ES pick: Monona Grove, 86.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Monona GroveES 87%2 ElkhornES pick: New Richmond, 98.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New RichmondES 98%8 DeForestES pick: La Crosse Central, 81.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 La Crosse Ce…ES 82%5 Waukesha WestES pick: Holmen, 72.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 HolmenES 73%6 River Falls2 Beaver DamES pick: Brookfield Central, 55.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.7 Brookfield C…ES 55%ES pick: New Richmond, 85.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New RichmondES 85%4 La Crosse Central3 Holmen7 Brookfield Central1 New RichmondTBDES pick: Notre Dame, 89.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Notre DameES 89%8 GermantownES pick: Menasha, 81.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 MenashaES 82%5 Menomonee FallsES pick: Pulaski, 87.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 PulaskiES 87%6 AshwaubenonES pick: Kaukauna, 91.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 KaukaunaES 91%7 Oshkosh NorthES pick: Notre Dame, 88.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Notre DameES 89%4 MenashaES pick: Pulaski, 54.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 PulaskiES 54%2 KaukaunaES pick: Notre Dame, 76.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Notre DameES 76%3 PulaskiES pick: Union Grove, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Union GroveES 98%8 Milwaukee KingES pick: Waukesha South, 76.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Waukesha Sou…ES 76%5 Wauwatosa EastES pick: West Bend West, 71.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 West Bend We…ES 71%6 SlingerES pick: Homestead, 97.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 HomesteadES 98%7 Westosha CentralES pick: Union Grove, 91.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Union GroveES 91%4 Waukesha South3 West Bend WestES pick: Homestead, 82.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 HomesteadES 82%1 Union GroveES pick: Homestead, 50.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 HomesteadES 50%1 Monona GroveTBDState semifinalES pick: Notre Dame, 52.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Notre DameES 53%2 HomesteadState semifinalTBD1 Notre DameState finalRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 2 · Week 9 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 9. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 9. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 8: the same teams are in the field. Biggest climbs: Waukesha South ▲7, Wausau East ▲6, Waukesha West ▲4. Biggest drops: Ashwaubenon ▼5, Slinger ▼4, Holmen ▼3.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲1New Richmond checkNew Richmond33.171-B1 – · 1-B
2▼1Notre Dame checkGreen Bay32.001-C2 – · 1-C
3–Union Grove checkUnion Grove29.281-D3 – · 1-D
4▲1Monona Grove checkMonona24.111-A4 – · 1-A
5▼1Elkhorn checkElkhorn23.892-A5 – · 2-A
6▲2Homestead checkMequon23.832-D6 – · 2-D
7–Beaver Dam checkBeaver Dam21.562-B7 – · 2-B
8▲1Kaukauna checkKaukauna21.392-C8 – · 2-C
9▼3Holmen checkHolmen21.223-B9 – · 3-B
10–Pulaski checkPulaski20.893-C10 – · 3-C
11–West Bend West checkWest Bend20.283-D11 – · 3-D
12–Greenfield checkGreenfield18.723-A12 – · 3-A
13▲7Waukesha South checkWaukesha17.674-D13 – · 4-D
14▲1La Crosse Central checkLa Crosse17.174-B14 – · 4-B
15▼2Menasha checkMenasha17.174-C15 – · 4-C
16▲6Wausau East checkWausau16.334-A16 – · 4-A
17▼3Wauwatosa East checkWauwatosa15.895-D17 – · 5-D
18▼2Marshfield checkMarshfield15.225-A18 – · 5-A
19▲4Waukesha West checkWaukesha14.065-B19 – · 5-B
20▼2Menomonee Falls checkMenomonee Falls13.945-C20 – · 5-C
21▲3River Falls checkRiver Falls13.836-B21 – · 6-B
22▼5Ashwaubenon checkAshwaubenon13.676-C22 – · 6-C
23▼4Slinger checkSlinger13.336-D23 – · 6-D
24▼3Grafton checkGrafton12.336-A24 – · 6-A
25▲1Oshkosh North checkOshkosh11.947-C25 – · 7-C
26▲1Brookfield Central checkBrookfield10.947-B26 – · 7-B
27▼2Westosha Central checkSalem10.007-D27 – · 7-D
28–Burlington checkBurlington9.947-A28 – · 7-A
29▲2Germantown checkGermantown9.678-C29 – · 8-C
30–Milwaukee King checkMilwaukee9.508-D30 – · 8-D
31▼2Milton checkMilton8.788-A31 – · 8-A
32–DeForest checkDeForest6.068-B32 – · 8-B
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▲2Oregon checkBelow cut lineOregon5.83Below cut line33 – · Out
34▼1Menomonie checkBelow cut lineMenomonie5.50Below cut line34 – · Out
35▼1Racine Horlick checkBelow cut lineRacine5.33Below cut line35 – · Out
36–Nicolet checkBelow cut lineGlendale5.28Below cut line36 – · Out
37▲2Superior checkBelow cut lineSuperior3.56Below cut line37 – · Out
38▼1Hartford Union checkBelow cut lineHartford3.28Below cut line38 – · Out
39▼1Wisconsin Rapids Lincoln checkBelow cut lineWisconsin Rapids2.83Below cut line39 – · Out
40–Sheboygan South checkBelow cut lineSheboygan2.78Below cut line40 – · Out
41–Green Bay Southwest checkBelow cut lineGreen Bay2.72Below cut line41 – · Out
42–West Allis Central checkBelow cut lineWest Allis2.67Below cut line42 – · Out
43▲2Watertown checkBelow cut lineWatertown2.17Below cut line43 – · Out
44▲2Rice Lake checkBelow cut lineRice Lake2.11Below cut line44 – · Out
45▼2Cedarburg checkBelow cut lineCedarburg2.00Below cut line45 – · Out
46▼2West Allis Hale checkBelow cut lineWest Allis1.83Below cut line46 – · Out
47T▼1Beloit Memorial checkBelow cut lineBeloit0.00Below cut line47T – · Out
47T▼1Green Bay East checkBelow cut lineGreen Bay0.00Below cut line47T – · Out
47T▼1Kettle Moraine checkBelow cut lineWales0.00Below cut line47T – · Out
47T▼1Racine Park checkBelow cut lineRacine0.00Below cut line47T – · Out
—Milwaukee South checkMilwaukee1.00ExcludedExcluded
—Milwaukee Marshall checkMilwaukee0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 9 (games dated Friday 2026-10-16 or earlier; WIAA deadline: completion before 11:59 p.m. Central; stored dates do not establish finish times). 32 of 50 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: New Richmond (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-20Eau Claire MemorialW6.5 (D1)6.500.009yes
2026-08-27Stevens Point Area Senior HighW6.5 (D1)6.5050.009yes
2026-09-04SuperiorW6 (D2)6.0013.009yes
2026-09-11Chippewa FallsW6.5 (D1)6.5037.509yes
2026-09-18HudsonW6.5 (D1)6.5049.509yes
2026-09-25River FallsW6 (D2)6.0031.009yes
2026-10-02Rice LakeW6 (D2)6.006.009yes
2026-10-09MenomonieW6 (D2)6.0018.009yes
2026-10-16MarshfieldW6 (D2)6.0037.509yes

Tier 1 AVG = 56.00 ÷ 9 = 6.222. Tier 2 points = 0.00 + 50.00 + 13.00 + 37.50 + 49.50 + 31.00 + 6.00 + 18.00 + 37.50 = 242.50; opponents’ games = 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 81; Tier 2 AVG = 242.50 ÷ 81 = 2.994. Total = 6.222 + 9 × 2.994 = 33.17 (Tier 3 tie-break 8.54).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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