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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 3 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 2Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 8:47 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

Unresolved ties: Shawano and Wisconsin Lutheran (rank 12, seed #3); Green Bay West and Kettle Moraine Lutheran and Sparta (rank 20, seed #5); Baldwin-Woodville and Lakeland and Martin Luther and New London and Onalaska and Sauk Prairie and Waterford and Whitefish Bay (rank 26, seed #7). Tied at rank 12, across the #3/#4 seed line: placement waits for WIAA's tie-break (Tier 3, then its own procedure). Their slots are left empty.

1 Port WashingtonES pick: Luxemburg-Casco, 98.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Luxemburg-Ca…ES 99%5 Pius XI Catholic3 RhinelanderES pick: New Berlin West, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 New Berlin W…ES 98%2 Plymouth7 tie unresolvedTBD4 Luxemburg-Casco6 New Berlin WestTBDTBDTBD1 La Crosse Logan5 tie unresolvedES pick: Portage, 96.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 PortageES 97%6 Fort Atkinson2 Mount Horeb/Barneveld7 tie unresolvedTBDTBD3 PortageTBDTBDTBD1 ReedsburgES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Fox Valley L…ES 100%5 Milwaukee Bay ViewES pick: Winneconne, 81.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 WinneconneES 81%6 Wilmot Union2 Pewaukee7 tie unresolvedTBD4 Fox Valley Lutheran3 WinneconneTBDTBDTBD1 Catholic MemorialES pick: Waukesha North, 88.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Waukesha Nor…ES 88%5 South Milwaukee3 tie unresolved2 New Berlin Eisenhower7 tie unresolvedTBD4 Waukesha NorthTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDState semifinalTBDTBDState semifinalTBDTBDState finalRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 3 · Week 2 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 2. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 2. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 1: out McFarland (16 → 34), Milwaukee Lutheran (29 → 34), Merrill (29 → 36), Antigo (29 → 37), Baraboo (29 → 37), Cudahy (29 → 37), Greendale (29 → 37), Hayward/Lac Courte Oreilles (29 → 37), Medford (29 → 37), Milwaukee Vincent (29 → 37), Milwaukee Washington (29 → 37), Monroe (29 → 37), Stoughton (29 → 37), Tomah (29 → 37), Waupaca (29 → 37), Wauwatosa West (29 → 37), West Bend East (29 → 37), Whitnall (29 → 37). Biggest climbs: Shawano ▲17, Fox Valley Lutheran ▲13, La Crosse Logan ▲12. Biggest drops: Baldwin-Woodville ▼20, Lakeland ▼20, Martin Luther ▼20.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Port Washington checkPort Washington31.881-A2 ▼1 · 1-A
2▲4Reedsburg checkReedsburg20.381-C7 ▼5 · 2-C
3▼2Catholic Memorial checkWaukesha20.001-D20 ▼17 · 5-D
4▲12La Crosse Logan checkLa Crosse17.881-B3 ▲1 · 1-B
5▲1Pewaukee checkPewaukee17.882-C1 ▲4 · 1-C
6▼2Plymouth checkPlymouth16.752-A10 ▼4 · 3-A
7▼3Mount Horeb/Barneveld check16.502-B14 ▼7 · 4-B
8▲8New Berlin Eisenhower checkNew Berlin16.502-D9 ▼1 · 3-C
9▲7Winneconne checkWinneconne16.003-C6 ▲3 · 2-A
10▲6Rhinelander checkRhinelander15.383-A23 ▼13 · 6-B
11▲5Portage checkPortage15.383-B18 ▼7 · 5-C
12T▲17Shawano checkShawano15.13#339 ▼27 · Out projected out
12T▼6Wisconsin Lutheran checkMilwaukee15.13#312 – · 3-D
14▲13Fox Valley Lutheran checkAppleton14.384-C11 ▲3 · 3-B
15▼9Waukesha North checkWaukesha14.004-D29 ▼14 · 8-B
16–Luxemburg-Casco checkLuxemburg13.754-A15 ▲1 · 4-A
17▼1Pius XI Catholic checkMilwaukee13.505-A32 ▼15 · 8-C
18▼12South Milwaukee checkSouth Milwaukee6.005-D31 ▼13 · 8-A
19▼18Milwaukee Bay View checkMilwaukee5.755-CExcluded
20T▲6Green Bay West checkGreen Bay4.75#527 ▼7 · 7-B
20T▼4Kettle Moraine Lutheran checkJackson4.75#522 ▼2 · 6-C
20T▼4Sparta checkSparta4.75#535 ▼15 · Out projected out
23▲4Wilmot Union checkWilmot4.256-C26 ▼3 · 7-D
24T▲5Fort Atkinson checkFort Atkinson3.256-B43 ▼19 · Out projected out
24T▲5New Berlin West checkNew Berlin3.256-A4 ▲20 · 1-D
26T▼20Baldwin-Woodville checkBaldwin2.75#717 ▲9 · 5-B
26T▼20Lakeland checkMinocqua2.75#736 ▼10 · Out projected out
26T▼20Martin Luther checkGreendale2.75#734 ▼8 · Out projected out
26T▲3New London checkNew London2.75#738 ▼12 · Out projected out
26T▲3Onalaska checkOnalaska2.75#724 ▲2 · 6-A
26T▼20Sauk Prairie checkPrairie du Sac2.75#725 ▲1 · 7-C
26T▲3Waterford checkWaterford2.75#713 ▲13 · 4-C
26T▼20Whitefish Bay checkWhitefish Bay2.75#75 ▲21 · 2-D
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
34T▼18McFarland checkBelow cut lineMcFarland2.50Below cut line dropped28 ▲6 · 7-A projected in
34T▼5Milwaukee Lutheran checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee2.50Below cut line dropped21 ▲13 · 6-D projected in
36▼7Merrill checkBelow cut lineMerrill1.75Below cut line dropped19 ▲17 · 5-A projected in
37T▼8Antigo checkBelow cut lineAntigo0.00Below cut line dropped45T ▼8 · Out
37T▼8Baraboo checkBelow cut lineBaraboo0.00Below cut line dropped40 ▼3 · Out
37T▼8Cudahy checkBelow cut lineCudahy0.00Below cut line dropped44 ▼7 · Out
37T▼8Greendale checkBelow cut lineGreendale0.00Below cut line dropped16 ▲21 · 4-D projected in
37T▼8Hayward/Lac Courte Oreilles checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line dropped37 – · Out
37T▼8Medford checkBelow cut lineMedford0.00Below cut line dropped8 ▲29 · 2-B projected in
37T▼8Milwaukee Vincent checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line dropped45T ▼8 · Out
37T▼8Milwaukee Washington checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line droppedExcluded
37T▼8Monroe checkBelow cut lineMonroe0.00Below cut line dropped42 ▼5 · Out
37T▼8Stoughton checkBelow cut lineStoughton0.00Below cut line dropped41 ▼4 · Out
37T▼8Tomah checkBelow cut lineTomah0.00Below cut line dropped45T ▼8 · Out
37T▼8Waupaca checkBelow cut lineWaupaca0.00Below cut line dropped45T ▼8 · Out
37T▼8Wauwatosa West checkBelow cut lineWauwatosa0.00Below cut line dropped33 ▲4 · Out
37T▼8West Bend East checkBelow cut lineWest Bend0.00Below cut line dropped45T ▼8 · Out
37T▼8Whitnall checkBelow cut lineGreenfield0.00Below cut line dropped30 ▲7 · 8-D projected in
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 2 (games through Saturday 2026-08-29). 33 of 51 in the field, 20 placed (13 waiting on a tie-break).

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Port Washington (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Sheboygan NorthW6.5 (D1)6.505.502yes
2026-08-28Mount Horeb/BarneveldW5.5 (D3)5.506.002yes

Tier 1 AVG = 12.00 ÷ 2 = 6.000. Tier 2 points = 5.50 + 6.00 = 11.50; opponents’ games = 2 + 2 = 4; Tier 2 AVG = 11.50 ÷ 4 = 2.875. Total = 6.000 + 9 × 2.875 = 31.88 (Tier 3 tie-break 6.75).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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