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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 3 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 3Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 9:31 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Plymouth, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PlymouthES 99%8 Pius XI Catholic4 New Berlin EisenhowerES pick: Wisconsin Lutheran, 51.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Wisconsin Lu…ES 51%3 Luxemburg-CascoES pick: Whitefish Bay, 52.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Whitefish BayES 52%ES pick: Pewaukee, 98.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 PewaukeeES 99%7 SpartaES pick: Plymouth, 78.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PlymouthES 79%5 Wisconsin Lutheran6 Whitefish BayES pick: Pewaukee, 83.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 PewaukeeES 84%1 PlymouthES pick: Pewaukee, 74.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 PewaukeeES 75%ES pick: Reedsburg, 98.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ReedsburgES 98%8 Lakeland4 Sauk PrairieES pick: Medford, 79.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 MedfordES 79%ES pick: Rhinelander, 66.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 RhinelanderES 67%6 Green Bay WestES pick: La Crosse Logan, 74.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Crosse Lo…ES 74%7 OnalaskaES pick: Reedsburg, 62.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ReedsburgES 63%5 Medford3 RhinelanderES pick: La Crosse Logan, 98.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Crosse Lo…ES 99%1 ReedsburgES pick: La Crosse Logan, 57.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Crosse Lo…ES 57%1 PortageES pick: Waterford, 90.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.8 WaterfordES 90%ES pick: Mount Horeb/Barneveld, 91.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Mount Horeb/…ES 91%5 Waukesha NorthES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 91.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Valley L…ES 91%6 Kettle Moraine Luther…ES pick: Winneconne, 91.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 WinneconneES 92%7 MerrillES pick: Waterford, 59.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.8 WaterfordES 59%4 Mount Horeb/BarneveldES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 60.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Valley L…ES 61%2 Winneconne8 WaterfordES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 65.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Valley L…ES 65%ES pick: Port Washington, 97.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port Washing…ES 97%8 Martin LutherES pick: South Milwaukee, 80.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 South Milwau…ES 81%5 Milwaukee Bay View3 Milwaukee LutheranES pick: New Berlin West, 95.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 New Berlin W…ES 96%ES pick: Catholic Memorial, 98.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Catholic Mem…ES 99%7 ShawanoES pick: Port Washington, 99.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port Washing…ES 100%4 South MilwaukeeES pick: New Berlin West, 61.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 New Berlin W…ES 61%2 Catholic Memorial1 Port WashingtonES pick: New Berlin West, 57.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 New Berlin W…ES 58%ES pick: Pewaukee, 65.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 PewaukeeES 66%2 La Crosse LoganState semifinal3 Fox Valley LutheranES pick: New Berlin West, 65.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.6 New Berlin W…ES 65%State semifinalES pick: Pewaukee, 62.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 PewaukeeES 63%6 New Berlin WestState final · ES pick: PewaukeeRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 3 · Week 3 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 3. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 3. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 2: in Milwaukee Lutheran (34 → 12), Medford (37 → 20), Merrill (36 → 25) · out Wilmot Union (23 → 34), Fort Atkinson (24 → 35), Baldwin-Woodville (26 → 33), New London (26 → 37). Biggest climbs: Milwaukee Lutheran ▲22, Medford ▲17, Sauk Prairie ▲13. Biggest drops: Shawano ▼15, Pius XI Catholic ▼12, Mount Horeb/Barneveld ▼8.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲1Reedsburg checkReedsburg34.331-B7 ▼6 · 2-C
2▲9Portage checkPortage30.671-C18 ▼16 · 5-C
3▼2Port Washington checkPort Washington29.001-D2 ▲1 · 1-A
4▲2Plymouth checkPlymouth26.001-A10 ▼6 · 3-A
5▼1La Crosse Logan checkLa Crosse25.002-B3 ▲2 · 1-B
6▼1Pewaukee checkPewaukee21.502-A1 ▲5 · 1-C
7▼4Catholic Memorial checkWaukesha21.332-D20 ▼13 · 5-D
8▲1Winneconne checkWinneconne20.502-C6 ▲2 · 2-A
9▲5Fox Valley Lutheran checkAppleton18.503-C11 ▼2 · 3-B
10–Rhinelander checkRhinelander17.003-B23 ▼13 · 6-B
11▲5Luxemburg-Casco checkLuxemburg16.333-A15 ▼4 · 4-A
12▲22Milwaukee Lutheran checkMilwaukee14.173-D in21 ▼9 · 6-D
13▲13Sauk Prairie checkPrairie du Sac14.174-B25 ▼12 · 7-C
14▼6New Berlin Eisenhower checkNew Berlin14.004-A9 ▲5 · 3-C
15▼8Mount Horeb/Barneveld check13.504-C14 ▲1 · 4-B
16▲2South Milwaukee checkSouth Milwaukee13.504-D31 ▼15 · 8-A
17▼5Wisconsin Lutheran checkMilwaukee13.335-A12 ▲5 · 3-D
18▼3Waukesha North checkWaukesha12.835-C29 ▼11 · 8-B
19–Milwaukee Bay View checkMilwaukee12.585-DExcluded
20▲17Medford checkMedford12.335-B in8 ▲12 · 2-B
21▲3New Berlin West checkNew Berlin10.506-D4 ▲17 · 1-D
22▼2Green Bay West checkGreen Bay10.176-B27 ▼5 · 7-B
23▼3Kettle Moraine Lutheran checkJackson9.676-C22 ▲1 · 6-C
24▲2Whitefish Bay checkWhitefish Bay9.176-A5 ▲19 · 2-D
25▲11Merrill checkMerrill8.507-C in19 ▲6 · 5-A
26–Onalaska checkOnalaska7.337-B24 ▲2 · 6-A
27▼15Shawano checkShawano7.337-D39 ▼12 · Out projected out
28▼8Sparta checkSparta7.177-A35 ▼7 · Out projected out
29▼12Pius XI Catholic checkMilwaukee7.008-A32 ▼3 · 8-C
30▼4Lakeland checkMinocqua6.338-B36 ▼6 · Out projected out
31▼5Waterford checkWaterford3.838-C13 ▲18 · 4-C
32▼6Martin Luther checkGreendale3.508-D34 ▼2 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼7Baldwin-Woodville checkBelow cut lineBaldwin3.33Below cut line dropped17 ▲16 · 5-B projected in
34▼11Wilmot Union checkBelow cut lineWilmot2.83Below cut line dropped26 ▲8 · 7-D projected in
35▼11Fort Atkinson checkBelow cut lineFort Atkinson2.17Below cut line dropped43 ▼8 · Out
36▲1Greendale checkBelow cut lineGreendale2.00Below cut line16 ▲20 · 4-D projected in
37T–Baraboo checkBelow cut lineBaraboo1.83Below cut line40 ▼3 · Out
37T▼11New London checkBelow cut lineNew London1.83Below cut line dropped38 ▼1 · Out
37T–Stoughton checkBelow cut lineStoughton1.83Below cut line41 ▼4 · Out
40▼6McFarland checkBelow cut lineMcFarland1.67Below cut line28 ▲12 · 7-A projected in
41▼4Hayward/Lac Courte Oreilles checkBelow cut line1.50Below cut line37 ▲4 · Out
42▼5Cudahy checkBelow cut lineCudahy1.17Below cut line44 ▼2 · Out
43T▼6Antigo checkBelow cut lineAntigo0.00Below cut line45T ▼2 · Out
43T▼6Milwaukee Vincent checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line45T ▼2 · Out
43T▼6Milwaukee Washington checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut lineExcluded
43T▼6Monroe checkBelow cut lineMonroe0.00Below cut line42 ▲1 · Out
43T▼6Tomah checkBelow cut lineTomah0.00Below cut line45T ▼2 · Out
43T▼6Waupaca checkBelow cut lineWaupaca0.00Below cut line45T ▼2 · Out
43T▼6Wauwatosa West checkBelow cut lineWauwatosa0.00Below cut line33 ▲10 · Out
43T▼6West Bend East checkBelow cut lineWest Bend0.00Below cut line45T ▼2 · Out
43T▼6Whitnall checkBelow cut lineGreenfield0.00Below cut line30 ▲13 · 8-D projected in
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 3 (games through Saturday 2026-09-05). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Reedsburg (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21New Berlin WestW5.5 (D3)5.5012.003yes
2026-08-28DeForestW6 (D2)6.006.003yes
2026-09-04La Crosse CentralW6 (D2)6.0010.503yes

Tier 1 AVG = 17.50 ÷ 3 = 5.833. Tier 2 points = 12.00 + 6.00 + 10.50 = 28.50; opponents’ games = 3 + 3 + 3 = 9; Tier 2 AVG = 28.50 ÷ 9 = 3.167. Total = 5.833 + 9 × 3.167 = 34.33 (Tier 3 tie-break 8.83).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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