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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 3 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 4Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 9:31 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Whitefish Bay, 81.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Whitefish BayES 82%8 Greendale4 Milwaukee Bay ViewES pick: Wisconsin Lutheran, 99.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Wisconsin Lu…ES 99%ES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 65.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Valley L…ES 65%6 WaterfordES pick: Winneconne, 97.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 WinneconneES 98%7 Green Bay WestES pick: Whitefish Bay, 75.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Whitefish BayES 75%5 Wisconsin LutheranES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 60.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Valley L…ES 61%2 Winneconne1 Whitefish BayES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 54.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Valley L…ES 54%ES pick: Reedsburg, 50.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ReedsburgES 51%8 Baldwin-Woodville4 Sauk PrairieES pick: Luxemburg-Casco, 74.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Luxemburg-Ca…ES 74%ES pick: Medford, 70.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 MedfordES 70%6 Mount Horeb/BarneveldES pick: La Crosse Logan, 74.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Crosse Lo…ES 74%7 OnalaskaES pick: Reedsburg, 68.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ReedsburgES 69%5 Luxemburg-Casco3 MedfordES pick: La Crosse Logan, 72.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Crosse Lo…ES 72%1 ReedsburgES pick: La Crosse Logan, 57.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Crosse Lo…ES 57%ES pick: Pewaukee, 99.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PewaukeeES 99%8 New LondonES pick: Catholic Memorial, 91.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Catholic Mem…ES 91%5 Kettle Moraine Luther…3 RhinelanderES pick: Waukesha North, 57.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Waukesha Nor…ES 58%ES pick: Portage, 59.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 PortageES 60%7 SpartaES pick: Pewaukee, 78.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PewaukeeES 78%4 Catholic Memorial6 Waukesha NorthES pick: Portage, 62.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 PortageES 62%ES pick: Pewaukee, 98.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PewaukeeES 98%2 PortageES pick: Port Washington, 95.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port Washing…ES 96%8 Merrill4 New Berlin EisenhowerES pick: New Berlin West, 87.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 New Berlin W…ES 87%ES pick: Milwaukee Lutheran, 92.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Milwaukee Lu…ES 93%6 South MilwaukeeES pick: Plymouth, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 PlymouthES 99%7 Pius XI Catholic1 Port WashingtonES pick: New Berlin West, 57.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 New Berlin W…ES 58%3 Milwaukee LutheranES pick: Plymouth, 93.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 PlymouthES 94%ES pick: New Berlin West, 64.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 New Berlin W…ES 64%2 Plymouth3 Fox Valley LutheranES pick: La Crosse Logan, 62.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 La Crosse Lo…ES 62%State semifinalES pick: Pewaukee, 62.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 PewaukeeES 63%5 New Berlin WestState semifinal2 La Crosse LoganES pick: Pewaukee, 65.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 PewaukeeES 66%State final · ES pick: PewaukeeRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 3 · Week 4 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 4. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 4. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 3: in Baldwin-Woodville (33 → 29), Greendale (36 → 30), New London (37 → 31) · out Shawano (27 → 36), Lakeland (30 → 38), Martin Luther (32 → 40). Biggest climbs: Whitefish Bay ▲20, Medford ▲8, Waterford ▲8. Biggest drops: Catholic Memorial ▼9, South Milwaukee ▼8, Merrill ▼7.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Reedsburg checkReedsburg31.061-B7 ▼6 · 2-C
2▲4Pewaukee checkPewaukee30.941-C1 ▲1 · 1-C
3–Port Washington checkPort Washington24.881-D2 ▲1 · 1-A
4▲20Whitefish Bay checkWhitefish Bay20.841-A5 ▼1 · 2-D
5▼3Portage checkPortage20.752-C18 ▼13 · 5-C
6▼2Plymouth checkPlymouth20.692-D10 ▼4 · 3-A
7▼2La Crosse Logan checkLa Crosse19.562-B3 ▲4 · 1-B
8–Winneconne checkWinneconne18.912-A6 ▲2 · 2-A
9–Fox Valley Lutheran checkAppleton16.883-A11 ▼2 · 3-B
10–Rhinelander checkRhinelander16.813-C23 ▼13 · 6-B
11▲1Milwaukee Lutheran checkMilwaukee16.783-D21 ▼10 · 6-D
12▲8Medford checkMedford16.533-B8 ▲4 · 2-B
13▲1New Berlin Eisenhower checkNew Berlin16.094-D9 ▲4 · 3-C
14▲5Milwaukee Bay View checkMilwaukee16.014-AExcluded
15▼2Sauk Prairie checkPrairie du Sac13.134-B25 ▼10 · 7-C
16▼9Catholic Memorial checkWaukesha12.814-C20 ▼4 · 5-D
17▼6Luxemburg-Casco checkLuxemburg12.635-B15 ▲2 · 4-A
18▼1Wisconsin Lutheran checkMilwaukee12.445-A12 ▲6 · 3-D
19▲2New Berlin West checkNew Berlin11.415-D4 ▲15 · 1-D
20▲3Kettle Moraine Lutheran checkJackson11.385-C22 ▼2 · 6-C
21▼6Mount Horeb/Barneveld check11.346-B14 ▲7 · 4-B
22▼4Waukesha North checkWaukesha10.666-C29 ▼7 · 8-B
23▲8Waterford checkWaterford9.036-A13 ▲10 · 4-C
24▼8South Milwaukee checkSouth Milwaukee8.346-D31 ▼7 · 8-A
25▲4Pius XI Catholic checkMilwaukee7.847-D32 ▼7 · 8-C
26–Onalaska checkOnalaska7.567-B24 ▲2 · 6-A
27▲1Sparta checkSparta6.887-C35 ▼8 · Out projected out
28▼6Green Bay West checkGreen Bay6.697-A27 ▲1 · 7-B
29▲4Baldwin-Woodville checkBaldwin6.568-B in17 ▲12 · 5-B
30▲6Greendale checkGreendale6.258-A in16 ▲14 · 4-D
31▲6New London checkNew London5.848-C in38 ▼7 · Out projected out
32▼7Merrill checkMerrill5.348-D19 ▲13 · 5-A
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▲10Monroe checkBelow cut lineMonroe5.03Below cut line42 ▼9 · Out
34–Wilmot Union checkBelow cut lineWilmot4.94Below cut line26 ▲8 · 7-D projected in
35▲2Stoughton checkBelow cut lineStoughton4.47Below cut line41 ▼6 · Out
36▼9Shawano checkBelow cut lineShawano4.47Below cut line dropped39 ▼3 · Out
37▲3McFarland checkBelow cut lineMcFarland4.06Below cut line28 ▲9 · 7-A projected in
38▼8Lakeland checkBelow cut lineMinocqua3.91Below cut line dropped36 ▲2 · Out
39▲2Hayward/Lac Courte Oreilles checkBelow cut line3.38Below cut line37 ▲2 · Out
40▼8Martin Luther checkBelow cut lineGreendale2.63Below cut line dropped34 ▲6 · Out
41▼6Fort Atkinson checkBelow cut lineFort Atkinson1.63Below cut line43 ▼2 · Out
42▼5Baraboo checkBelow cut lineBaraboo1.38Below cut line40 ▲2 · Out
43▼1Cudahy checkBelow cut lineCudahy0.88Below cut line44 ▼1 · Out
44T▼1Antigo checkBelow cut lineAntigo0.00Below cut line45T ▼1 · Out
44T▼1Milwaukee Vincent checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line45T ▼1 · Out
44T▼1Milwaukee Washington checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut lineExcluded
44T▼1Tomah checkBelow cut lineTomah0.00Below cut line45T ▼1 · Out
44T▼1Waupaca checkBelow cut lineWaupaca0.00Below cut line45T ▼1 · Out
44T▼1Wauwatosa West checkBelow cut lineWauwatosa0.00Below cut line33 ▲11 · Out
44T▼1West Bend East checkBelow cut lineWest Bend0.00Below cut line45T ▼1 · Out
44T▼1Whitnall checkBelow cut lineGreenfield0.00Below cut line30 ▲14 · 8-D projected in
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 4 (games through Saturday 2026-09-12). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Reedsburg (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21New Berlin WestW5.5 (D3)5.5017.504yes
2026-08-28DeForestW6 (D2)6.006.004yes
2026-09-04La Crosse CentralW6 (D2)6.0016.004yes
2026-09-11OnalaskaW5.5 (D3)5.505.504yes

Tier 1 AVG = 23.00 ÷ 4 = 5.750. Tier 2 points = 17.50 + 6.00 + 16.00 + 5.50 = 45.00; opponents’ games = 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 16; Tier 2 AVG = 45.00 ÷ 16 = 2.813. Total = 5.750 + 9 × 2.813 = 31.06 (Tier 3 tie-break 6.89).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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