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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 3 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 7Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 11:38 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Pewaukee, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PewaukeeES 100%8 Pius XI CatholicES pick: Mount Horeb/Barneveld, 88.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Mount Horeb/…ES 88%5 Portage3 New Berlin EisenhowerES pick: Catholic Memorial, 79.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Catholic Mem…ES 79%ES pick: Reedsburg, 88.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ReedsburgES 88%7 Sauk PrairieES pick: Pewaukee, 91.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PewaukeeES 91%4 Mount Horeb/Barneveld6 Catholic MemorialES pick: Reedsburg, 54.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ReedsburgES 55%ES pick: Pewaukee, 77.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PewaukeeES 78%2 ReedsburgES pick: La Crosse Logan, 98.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 La Crosse Lo…ES 99%8 McFarlandES pick: Baldwin-Woodville, 71.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Baldwin-Wood…ES 72%5 Luxemburg-CascoES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 95.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Valley L…ES 95%6 MerrillES pick: Medford, 97.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 MedfordES 97%7 RhinelanderES pick: La Crosse Logan, 61.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 La Crosse Lo…ES 62%4 Baldwin-WoodvilleES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 53.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Valley L…ES 54%2 MedfordES pick: La Crosse Logan, 65.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 La Crosse Lo…ES 66%3 Fox Valley LutheranES pick: New Berlin West, 93.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Berlin W…ES 94%8 Wilmot Union4 GreendaleES pick: Waterford, 74.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 WaterfordES 74%ES pick: Wisconsin Lutheran, 74.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Wisconsin Lu…ES 74%6 Kettle Moraine Luther…ES pick: Whitefish Bay, 99.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Whitefish BayES 99%7 South MilwaukeeES pick: New Berlin West, 77.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Berlin W…ES 78%5 Waterford3 Wisconsin LutheranES pick: Whitefish Bay, 75.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Whitefish BayES 75%ES pick: New Berlin West, 75.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Berlin W…ES 75%2 Whitefish BayES pick: Port Washington, 96.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port Washing…ES 96%8 Wauwatosa West4 Milwaukee Bay ViewES pick: Milwaukee Lutheran, 97.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Milwaukee Lu…ES 97%ES pick: Plymouth, 61.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 PlymouthES 61%6 OnalaskaES pick: Winneconne, 97.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 WinneconneES 98%7 Green Bay WestES pick: Port Washington, 95.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port Washing…ES 95%5 Milwaukee LutheranES pick: Plymouth, 58.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 PlymouthES 58%2 WinneconneES pick: Port Washington, 60.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port Washing…ES 60%3 PlymouthES pick: Pewaukee, 65.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 PewaukeeES 66%1 La Crosse LoganState semifinalES pick: New Berlin West, 61.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 New Berlin W…ES 62%1 Port WashingtonState semifinalES pick: Pewaukee, 62.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 PewaukeeES 63%1 New Berlin WestState final · ES pick: PewaukeeRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 3 · Week 7 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 7. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 7. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 6: in Green Bay West (34 → 26), Wilmot Union (38 → 29) · out Martin Luther (31 → 33), Sparta (32 → 34). Biggest climbs: Wilmot Union ▲9, Green Bay West ▲8, Merrill ▲7. Biggest drops: New Berlin Eisenhower ▼5, Plymouth ▼5, Rhinelander ▼5.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲1Port Washington checkPort Washington29.851-D2 ▼1 · 1-A
2▼1Pewaukee checkPewaukee29.131-A1 ▲1 · 1-C
3▲3La Crosse Logan checkLa Crosse26.331-B3 – · 1-B
4▼1New Berlin West checkNew Berlin26.031-C4 – · 1-D
5▲3Medford checkMedford22.042-B8 ▼3 · 2-B
6▼1Reedsburg checkReedsburg21.702-A7 ▼1 · 2-C
7▲2Whitefish Bay checkWhitefish Bay21.682-C5 ▲2 · 2-D
8▲2Winneconne checkWinneconne21.212-D6 ▲2 · 2-A
9▼5New Berlin Eisenhower checkNew Berlin20.183-A9 – · 3-C
10▲4Wisconsin Lutheran checkMilwaukee19.613-C12 ▼2 · 3-D
11▲1Fox Valley Lutheran checkAppleton18.173-B11 – · 3-B
12▼5Plymouth checkPlymouth17.853-D10 ▲2 · 3-A
13▼2Milwaukee Bay View checkMilwaukee16.184-DExcluded
14▲3Greendale checkGreendale14.724-C16 ▼2 · 4-D
15▼2Baldwin-Woodville checkBaldwin13.034-B17 ▼2 · 5-B
16▼1Mount Horeb/Barneveld check12.584-A14 ▲2 · 4-B
17▼1Luxemburg-Casco checkLuxemburg12.575-B15 ▲2 · 4-A
18–Waterford checkWaterford12.565-C13 ▲5 · 4-C
19–Portage checkPortage11.865-A18 ▲1 · 5-C
20▲1Milwaukee Lutheran checkMilwaukee11.505-D21 ▼1 · 6-D
21▲3Catholic Memorial checkWaukesha11.266-A20 ▲1 · 5-D
22▲3Onalaska checkOnalaska11.086-D24 ▼2 · 6-A
23▲7Merrill checkMerrill10.376-B19 ▲4 · 5-A
24▼4Kettle Moraine Lutheran checkJackson9.586-C22 ▲2 · 6-C
25▲3South Milwaukee checkSouth Milwaukee9.317-C31 ▼6 · 8-A
26▲8Green Bay West checkGreen Bay9.317-D in27 ▼1 · 7-B
27▼5Rhinelander checkRhinelander9.067-B23 ▲4 · 6-B
28▼5Sauk Prairie checkPrairie du Sac8.337-A25 ▲3 · 7-C
29▲9Wilmot Union checkWilmot7.968-C in26 ▲3 · 7-D
30▼1McFarland checkMcFarland7.808-B28 ▲2 · 7-A
31▼5Wauwatosa West checkWauwatosa7.068-D33 ▼2 · Out projected out
32▼5Pius XI Catholic checkMilwaukee5.738-A32 – · 8-C
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼2Martin Luther checkBelow cut lineGreendale5.45Below cut line dropped34 ▼1 · Out
34▼2Sparta checkBelow cut lineSparta5.27Below cut line dropped35 ▼1 · Out
35▲2Milwaukee Washington checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee5.20Below cut lineExcluded
36▼3Waukesha North checkBelow cut lineWaukesha4.83Below cut line29 ▲7 · 8-B projected in
37▼1New London checkBelow cut lineNew London4.38Below cut line38 ▼1 · Out
38▼3Stoughton checkBelow cut lineStoughton3.78Below cut line41 ▼3 · Out
39▲2Shawano checkBelow cut lineShawano3.50Below cut line39 – · Out
40▲2Lakeland checkBelow cut lineMinocqua3.34Below cut line36 ▲4 · Out
41▼2Whitnall checkBelow cut lineGreenfield2.79Below cut line30 ▲11 · 8-D projected in
42▼2Monroe checkBelow cut lineMonroe1.98Below cut line42 – · Out
43–Hayward/Lac Courte Oreilles checkBelow cut line1.38Below cut line37 ▲6 · Out
44–Fort Atkinson checkBelow cut lineFort Atkinson0.93Below cut line43 ▲1 · Out
45–Baraboo checkBelow cut lineBaraboo0.79Below cut line40 ▲5 · Out
46–Cudahy checkBelow cut lineCudahy0.50Below cut line44 ▲2 · Out
47T–Antigo checkBelow cut lineAntigo0.00Below cut line45T ▲2 · Out
47T–Milwaukee Vincent checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line45T ▲2 · Out
47T–Tomah checkBelow cut lineTomah0.00Below cut line45T ▲2 · Out
47T–Waupaca checkBelow cut lineWaupaca0.00Below cut line45T ▲2 · Out
47T–West Bend East checkBelow cut lineWest Bend0.00Below cut line45T ▲2 · Out
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 7 (games through Saturday 2026-10-03). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Port Washington (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Sheboygan NorthW6.5 (D1)6.5017.507yes
2026-08-28Mount Horeb/BarneveldW5.5 (D3)5.5022.507yes
2026-09-04NicoletW6 (D2)6.0016.507yes
2026-09-11KewaskumW5 (D4)5.0010.507yes
2026-09-18West Bend WestW6 (D2)6.0026.507yes
2026-09-25Kettle Moraine LutheranW5.5 (D3)5.5015.007yes
2026-10-02GraftonW6 (D2)6.0022.507yes

Tier 1 AVG = 40.50 ÷ 7 = 5.786. Tier 2 points = 17.50 + 22.50 + 16.50 + 10.50 + 26.50 + 15.00 + 22.50 = 131.00; opponents’ games = 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 = 49; Tier 2 AVG = 131.00 ÷ 49 = 2.673. Total = 5.786 + 9 × 2.673 = 29.85 (Tier 3 tie-break 7.50).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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