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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 3 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 9Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 10:33 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Port Washington, 99.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port Washing…ES 100%8 South MilwaukeeES pick: Luxemburg-Casco, 91.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Luxemburg-Ca…ES 92%5 MerrillES pick: Plymouth, 61.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 PlymouthES 61%6 OnalaskaES pick: Winneconne, 95.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 WinneconneES 96%7 McFarlandES pick: Port Washington, 71.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port Washing…ES 71%4 Luxemburg-CascoES pick: Plymouth, 58.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 PlymouthES 58%2 WinneconneES pick: Port Washington, 60.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port Washing…ES 60%3 PlymouthES pick: La Crosse Logan, 97.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 La Crosse Lo…ES 98%8 Waukesha North4 Mount Horeb/BarneveldES pick: Baldwin-Woodville, 73.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Baldwin-Wood…ES 74%ES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 97.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Valley L…ES 98%6 RhinelanderES pick: Medford, 98.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 MedfordES 98%7 Green Bay WestES pick: La Crosse Logan, 61.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 La Crosse Lo…ES 62%5 Baldwin-WoodvilleES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 53.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Valley L…ES 54%2 MedfordES pick: La Crosse Logan, 65.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 La Crosse Lo…ES 66%3 Fox Valley LutheranES pick: Pewaukee, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PewaukeeES 100%8 Pius XI CatholicES pick: Waterford, 92.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 WaterfordES 93%5 PortageES pick: New Berlin Eisenhower, 70.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 New Berlin E…ES 70%6 Kettle Moraine Luther…ES pick: Reedsburg, 88.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ReedsburgES 88%7 Sauk PrairieES pick: Pewaukee, 85.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PewaukeeES 85%4 Waterford3 New Berlin EisenhowerES pick: Reedsburg, 84.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ReedsburgES 84%ES pick: Pewaukee, 77.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PewaukeeES 78%2 ReedsburgES pick: New Berlin West, 97.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Berlin W…ES 97%8 Whitnall4 GreendaleES pick: Catholic Memorial, 82.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Catholic Mem…ES 82%ES pick: Wisconsin Lutheran, 82.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Wisconsin Lu…ES 82%6 Milwaukee LutheranES pick: Whitefish Bay, 85.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Whitefish BayES 85%7 Wilmot UnionES pick: New Berlin West, 68.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Berlin W…ES 68%5 Catholic Memorial3 Wisconsin LutheranES pick: Whitefish Bay, 75.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Whitefish BayES 75%ES pick: New Berlin West, 75.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Berlin W…ES 75%2 Whitefish Bay1 Port WashingtonES pick: La Crosse Logan, 58.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 La Crosse Lo…ES 59%State semifinalES pick: Pewaukee, 62.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 PewaukeeES 63%1 New Berlin WestState semifinal1 La Crosse LoganES pick: Pewaukee, 65.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 PewaukeeES 66%State final · ES pick: PewaukeeRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 3 · Week 9 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 9. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 9. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 8: in Wilmot Union (33 → 26), Waukesha North (37 → 29), Whitnall (34 → 30) · out Milwaukee Bay View (13 → off the board), Milwaukee Washington (29 → off the board), Wauwatosa West (32 → 33). Biggest climbs: Waukesha North ▲8, Wilmot Union ▲7, Kettle Moraine Lutheran ▲5. Biggest drops: Portage ▼4, McFarland ▼3.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲1Pewaukee checkPewaukee31.721-C1 – · 1-C
2▼1Port Washington checkPort Washington28.941-A2 – · 1-A
3–La Crosse Logan checkLa Crosse28.001-B3 – · 1-B
4–New Berlin West checkNew Berlin23.721-D4 – · 1-D
5▲1Whitefish Bay checkWhitefish Bay21.062-D5 – · 2-D
6▲2Winneconne checkWinneconne20.832-A6 – · 2-A
7▼2Reedsburg checkReedsburg20.562-C7 – · 2-C
8▼1Medford checkMedford19.282-B8 – · 2-B
9–New Berlin Eisenhower checkNew Berlin19.223-C9 – · 3-C
10▲2Plymouth checkPlymouth17.943-A10 – · 3-A
11–Fox Valley Lutheran checkAppleton17.943-B11 – · 3-B
12▼2Wisconsin Lutheran checkMilwaukee17.833-D12 – · 3-D
13▲4Waterford checkWaterford14.944-C13 – · 4-C
14▲1Mount Horeb/Barneveld check14.834-B14 – · 4-B
15▲4Luxemburg-Casco checkLuxemburg14.724-A15 – · 4-A
16▲2Greendale checkGreendale14.614-D16 – · 4-D
17▼1Baldwin-Woodville checkBaldwin12.835-B17 – · 5-B
18▼4Portage checkPortage12.565-C18 – · 5-C
19▲1Merrill checkMerrill11.505-A19 – · 5-A
20▲2Catholic Memorial checkWaukesha10.675-D20 – · 5-D
21–Milwaukee Lutheran checkMilwaukee10.116-D21 – · 6-D
22▲5Kettle Moraine Lutheran checkJackson10.066-C22 – · 6-C
23▲5Rhinelander checkRhinelander9.726-B23 – · 6-B
24▼1Onalaska checkOnalaska9.506-A24 – · 6-A
25▼1Sauk Prairie checkPrairie du Sac9.227-C25 – · 7-C
26▲7Wilmot Union checkWilmot9.177-D in26 – · 7-D
27▼1Green Bay West checkGreen Bay9.117-B27 – · 7-B
28▼3McFarland checkMcFarland7.507-A28 – · 7-A
29▲8Waukesha North checkWaukesha7.008-B in29 – · 8-B
30▲4Whitnall checkGreenfield6.448-D in30 – · 8-D
31▼1South Milwaukee checkSouth Milwaukee6.228-A31 – · 8-A
32▼1Pius XI Catholic checkMilwaukee5.908-C32 – · 8-C
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼1Wauwatosa West checkBelow cut lineWauwatosa5.83Below cut line dropped33 – · Out
34▲1Martin Luther checkBelow cut lineGreendale5.39Below cut line34 – · Out
35▲1Sparta checkBelow cut lineSparta5.06Below cut line35 – · Out
36▲2Lakeland checkBelow cut lineMinocqua3.78Below cut line36 – · Out
37▲5Hayward/Lac Courte Oreilles checkBelow cut line3.22Below cut line37 – · Out
38▲2New London checkBelow cut lineNew London3.06Below cut line38 – · Out
39–Shawano checkBelow cut lineShawano3.00Below cut line39 – · Out
40▲5Baraboo checkBelow cut lineBaraboo2.89Below cut line40 – · Out
41–Stoughton checkBelow cut lineStoughton2.56Below cut line41 – · Out
42▲1Monroe checkBelow cut lineMonroe1.33Below cut line42 – · Out
43▲1Fort Atkinson checkBelow cut lineFort Atkinson0.72Below cut line43 – · Out
44▲2Cudahy checkBelow cut lineCudahy0.39Below cut line44 – · Out
45T▲2Antigo checkBelow cut lineAntigo0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▲2Milwaukee Vincent checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▲2Tomah checkBelow cut lineTomah0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▲2Waupaca checkBelow cut lineWaupaca0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▲2West Bend East checkBelow cut lineWest Bend0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
—Milwaukee Bay View checkMilwaukee12.74ExcludedExcluded
—Milwaukee Washington checkMilwaukee8.75ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 9 (games dated Friday 2026-10-16 or earlier; WIAA deadline: completion before 11:59 p.m. Central; stored dates do not establish finish times). 32 of 49 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Pewaukee (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-20GreendaleW5.5 (D3)5.5034.009yes
2026-08-28Baldwin-WoodvilleW5.5 (D3)5.5034.509yes
2026-09-03Wauwatosa WestW5.5 (D3)5.5011.509yes
2026-09-11Wauwatosa EastW6 (D2)6.0030.009yes
2026-09-18Waukesha NorthW5.5 (D3)5.5011.009yes
2026-09-25West Allis HaleW6 (D2)6.006.009yes
2026-10-02Waukesha SouthW6 (D2)6.0034.009yes
2026-10-09New Berlin EisenhowerW5.5 (D3)5.5033.009yes
2026-10-16New Berlin WestW5.5 (D3)5.5040.509yes

Tier 1 AVG = 51.00 ÷ 9 = 5.667. Tier 2 points = 34.00 + 34.50 + 11.50 + 30.00 + 11.00 + 6.00 + 34.00 + 33.00 + 40.50 = 234.50; opponents’ games = 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 81; Tier 2 AVG = 234.50 ÷ 81 = 2.895. Total = 5.667 + 9 × 2.895 = 31.72 (Tier 3 tie-break pending verification).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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