Menu

Playoff Bracket · Football Division 4 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 9Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 9:31 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Freedom, 99.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 99%8 DenmarkES pick: Lodi, 95.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 LodiES 95%5 MaustonES pick: Osceola, 94.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 OsceolaES 95%6 AshlandES pick: Northwestern, 91.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 NorthwesternES 91%7 SomersetES pick: Freedom, 98.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 99%4 Lodi3 OsceolaES pick: Northwestern, 70.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 NorthwesternES 70%ES pick: Freedom, 89.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 90%2 NorthwesternES pick: Little Chute, 98.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 99%8 Black River FallsES pick: Platteville, 57.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 PlattevilleES 57%5 Evansville3 Fuller Collegiate Aca…ES pick: Wrightstown, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 WrightstownES 98%ES pick: Stratford, 93.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 StratfordES 94%7 SeymourES pick: Little Chute, 96.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 96%4 Platteville6 WrightstownES pick: Stratford, 68.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 StratfordES 68%ES pick: Little Chute, 86.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 86%2 StratfordES pick: Lake Mills, 96.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Lake MillsES 96%8 EdgertonES pick: Lakeside Lutheran, 91.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Lakeside Lut…ES 91%5 BerlinES pick: Aquinas, 70.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 AquinasES 70%6 XavierES pick: West Salem, 99.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West SalemES 100%7 Wisconsin DellsES pick: Lake Mills, 77.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Lake MillsES 77%4 Lakeside Lutheran3 AquinasES pick: West Salem, 83.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West SalemES 84%1 Lake MillsES pick: West Salem, 70.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West SalemES 70%ES pick: Racine St. Catherine's, 93.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine St. C…ES 93%8 Turner4 Saint FrancisES pick: Shoreland Lutheran, 55.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Shoreland Lu…ES 55%ES pick: Delavan-Darien, 77.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Delavan-Dari…ES 77%6 CampbellsportES pick: Edgewood, 97.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgewoodES 98%7 RiponES pick: Racine St. Catherine's, 88.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine St. C…ES 89%5 Shoreland Lutheran3 Delavan-DarienES pick: Edgewood, 75.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgewoodES 76%1 Racine St. Catherine'sES pick: Edgewood, 52.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgewoodES 52%ES pick: Freedom, 71.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 FreedomES 71%1 Little ChuteState semifinalES pick: West Salem, 79.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 West SalemES 79%2 EdgewoodState semifinalES pick: Freedom, 81.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 FreedomES 81%2 West SalemState final · ES pick: FreedomRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 4 · Week 9 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 9. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 9. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 8: in Black River Falls (40 → 32) · out Kewaskum (30 → 33). Biggest climbs: Fuller Collegiate Academy ▲9, Black River Falls ▲8, Osceola ▲5. Biggest drops: Edgerton ▼6, Denmark ▼5, Saint Francis ▼3.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Freedom checkFreedom28.941-A1 – · 1-A
2▲2Lake Mills checkLake Mills22.171-C2 – · 1-C
3–Racine St. Catherine's checkRacine21.611-D3 – · 1-D
4▼2Little Chute checkLittle Chute21.441-B4 – · 1-B
5–West Salem checkWest Salem20.442-C5 – · 2-C
6▲1Northwestern checkMaple20.062-A6 – · 2-A
7▼1Stratford checkStratford19.672-B7 – · 2-B
8–Edgewood checkMadison19.112-D8 – · 2-D
9▲5Osceola checkOsceola18.283-A9 – · 3-A
10–Aquinas checkLa Crosse17.393-C10 – · 3-C
11▼2Delavan-Darien checkDelavan16.783-D11 – · 3-D
12▲9Fuller Collegiate Academy checkMilwaukee16.073-B12 – · 3-B
13–Lodi checkLodi15.504-A13 – · 4-A
14▼3Saint Francis checkSaint Francis15.104-D14 – · 4-D
15▼3Platteville checkPlatteville14.394-B15 – · 4-B
16▲1Lakeside Lutheran checkLake Mills14.224-C16 – · 4-C
17▼1Evansville checkEvansville14.115-B17 – · 5-B
18▼3Berlin checkBerlin13.835-C18 – · 5-C
19–Shoreland Lutheran checkKenosha12.005-D19 – · 5-D
20▼2Mauston checkMauston11.785-A20 – · 5-A
21▼1Xavier checkAppleton11.176-C21 – · 6-C
22–Ashland checkAshland10.116-A22 – · 6-A
23▲1Wrightstown checkWrightstown10.006-B23 – · 6-B
24▲1Campbellsport checkCampbellsport9.896-D24 – · 6-D
25▲4Seymour checkSeymour9.567-B25 – · 7-B
26▲1Ripon checkRipon9.227-D26 – · 7-D
27▲4Somerset checkSomerset8.397-A27 – · 7-A
28–Wisconsin Dells checkWisconsin Dells8.287-C28 – · 7-C
29▼6Edgerton checkEdgerton8.118-C29 – · 8-C
30▲2Turner checkBeloit7.728-D30 – · 8-D
31▼5Denmark checkDenmark7.448-A31 – · 8-A
32▲8Black River Falls checkBlack River Falls6.448-B in32 – · 8-B
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼3Kewaskum checkBelow cut lineKewaskum6.17Below cut line dropped33 – · Out
34▼1Oconto Falls checkBelow cut lineOconto Falls5.50Below cut line34 – · Out
35▼1Saint Thomas More checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee5.16Below cut line35 – · Out
36▲8Waupun checkBelow cut lineWaupun5.11Below cut line36 – · Out
37▲1Altoona checkBelow cut lineAltoona4.72Below cut line37 – · Out
38▼1Marinette checkBelow cut lineMarinette4.70Below cut line38 – · Out
39▼3Kohler checkBelow cut lineKohler4.67Below cut line39 – · Out
40▼5Jefferson checkBelow cut lineJefferson4.44Below cut line40 – · Out
41▼2Brown Deer checkBelow cut lineBrown Deer3.93Below cut line41 – · Out
42▼1Saint Croix Central checkBelow cut lineHammond3.72Below cut line42 – · Out
43–Big Foot checkBelow cut lineWalworth3.17Below cut line43 – · Out
44▼2Two Rivers checkBelow cut lineTwo Rivers3.14Below cut line44 – · Out
45–Whitewater checkBelow cut lineWhitewater1.89Below cut line45 – · Out
46–Milwaukee School of Languages checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee1.22Below cut line46 – · Out
47–Mosinee checkBelow cut lineMosinee0.61Below cut line47 – · Out
48T–Ellsworth checkBelow cut lineEllsworth0.00Below cut line48T – · Out
48T–North Fond du Lac checkBelow cut lineNorth Fond du Lac0.00Below cut line48T – · Out
48T–Sheboygan Falls checkBelow cut lineSheboygan Falls0.00Below cut line48T – · Out
—Milwaukee Madison checkMilwaukee0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 9 (games dated Friday 2026-10-16 or earlier; WIAA deadline: completion before 11:59 p.m. Central; stored dates do not establish finish times). 32 of 50 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Freedom (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Lake MillsW5 (D4)5.0040.509yes
2026-08-28XavierW5 (D4)5.0026.509yes
2026-09-04New LondonW5.5 (D3)5.5016.509yes
2026-09-11DenmarkW5 (D4)5.0026.509yes
2026-09-18KohlerW5 (D4)5.0013.009yes
2026-09-25Little ChuteW5 (D4)5.0041.509yes
2026-10-02WrightstownW5 (D4)5.0020.009yes
2026-10-09Luxemburg-CascoW5.5 (D3)5.5030.009yes
2026-10-16Sheboygan FallsW5 (D4)5.000.009yes

Tier 1 AVG = 46.00 ÷ 9 = 5.111. Tier 2 points = 40.50 + 26.50 + 16.50 + 26.50 + 13.00 + 41.50 + 20.00 + 30.00 + 0.00 = 214.50; opponents’ games = 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 81; Tier 2 AVG = 214.50 ÷ 81 = 2.648. Total = 5.111 + 9 × 2.648 = 28.94 (Tier 3 tie-break 7.87).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

WIAA Football Playoff Brackets: Official and Projected | Ewert Sports | Ewert Sports