Menu

Playoff Bracket · Football Division 4 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 2Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 9:31 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

Unresolved ties: Northwestern and Wrightstown (rank 8, seed #2); Kewaskum and Lakeside Lutheran and Milwaukee School of Languages and Platteville (rank 23, seed #6); Big Foot and Edgerton and Osceola and Racine St. Catherine's and Shoreland Lutheran and Somerset and Wisconsin Dells (rank 27, seed #7). Tied at rank 8, across the #2/#3 seed line: placement waits for WIAA's tie-break (Tier 3, then its own procedure). Their slots are left empty.

1 DenmarkES pick: Lake Mills, 99.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Lake MillsES 99%5 Two RiversES pick: Little Chute, 99.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Little ChuteES 99%6 Oconto Falls2 Freedom7 tie unresolvedTBD4 Lake Mills3 Little ChuteTBDTBDTBD1 West SalemES pick: Edgewood, 79.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 EdgewoodES 80%5 Evansville6 tie unresolved2 tie unresolved7 tie unresolvedTBD4 EdgewoodTBDTBDTBDTBD1 JeffersonES pick: Delavan-Darien, 84.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Delavan-Dari…ES 84%5 Saint FrancisES pick: Aquinas, 79.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 AquinasES 79%6 Lodi2 Kohler7 tie unresolvedTBD4 Delavan-Darien3 AquinasTBDTBDTBD1 MarinetteES pick: Stratford, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 StratfordES 98%5 Ripon3 Ashland6 tie unresolved2 Seymour7 tie unresolvedTBD4 StratfordTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDState semifinalTBDTBDState semifinalTBDTBDState finalRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 4 · Week 2 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 2. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 2. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 1: out Whitewater (24 → 34), Altoona (26 → 35), Berlin (26 → 35), Black River Falls (26 → 35), Brown Deer (26 → 35), Campbellsport (26 → 35), Ellsworth (26 → 35), Fuller Collegiate Academy (26 → 35), Mauston (26 → 35), Mosinee (26 → 35), North Fond du Lac (26 → 35), Saint Croix Central (26 → 35), Saint Thomas More (26 → 35), Sheboygan Falls (26 → 35), Turner (26 → 35), Waupun (26 → 35), Xavier (26 → 35). Biggest climbs: Wrightstown ▲18, Kohler ▲17, Ashland ▲16. Biggest drops: Lodi ▼20, Oconto Falls ▼20, Lakeside Lutheran ▼17.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Jefferson checkJefferson27.751-C40 ▼39 · Out projected out
2T▼1Denmark checkDenmark17.881-A31 ▼29 · 8-A
2T▼1West Salem checkWest Salem17.881-B5 ▼3 · 2-C
4▲2Marinette checkMarinette17.501-D38 ▼34 · Out projected out
5▲1Freedom checkFreedom17.382-A1 ▲4 · 1-A
6–Seymour checkSeymour17.382-D25 ▼19 · 7-B
7▲17Kohler checkKohler15.252-C39 ▼32 · Out projected out
8T▲6Northwestern checkMaple14.88#26 ▲2 · 2-A
8T▲18Wrightstown checkWrightstown14.88#223 ▼15 · 6-B
10T▲12Aquinas checkLa Crosse14.633-C10 – · 3-C
10T▲16Ashland checkAshland14.633-D22 ▼12 · 6-A
12▼6Little Chute checkLittle Chute14.253-A4 ▲8 · 1-B
13▲13Lake Mills checkLake Mills14.004-A2 ▲11 · 1-C
14▲12Edgewood checkMadison13.754-B8 ▲6 · 2-D
15▲11Delavan-Darien checkDelavan12.634-C11 ▲4 · 3-D
16▼10Stratford checkStratford12.384-D7 ▲9 · 2-B
17▲9Two Rivers checkTwo Rivers11.505-A44 ▼27 · Out projected out
18▲4Ripon checkRipon11.005-D26 ▼8 · 7-D
19▼5Saint Francis checkSaint Francis4.755-C14 ▲5 · 4-D
20▼6Evansville checkEvansville4.505-B17 ▲3 · 5-B
21T▼20Lodi checkLodi2.756-C13 ▲8 · 4-A
21T▼20Oconto Falls checkOconto Falls2.756-A34 ▼13 · Out projected out
23T▲3Kewaskum checkKewaskum2.50#633 ▼10 · Out projected out
23T▼17Lakeside Lutheran checkLake Mills2.50#616 ▲7 · 4-C
23T▼17Milwaukee School of Languages checkMilwaukee2.50#646 ▼23 · Out projected out
23T▼17Platteville checkPlatteville2.50#615 ▲8 · 4-B
27T▼13Big Foot checkWalworth2.25#743 ▼16 · Out projected out
27T▼13Edgerton checkEdgerton2.25#729 ▼2 · 8-C
27T▼13Osceola checkOsceola2.25#79 ▲18 · 3-A
27T▼13Racine St. Catherine's checkRacine2.25#73 ▲24 · 1-D
27T▼1Shoreland Lutheran checkKenosha2.25#719 ▲8 · 5-D
27T▼13Somerset checkSomerset2.25#727 – · 7-A
27T▼1Wisconsin Dells checkWisconsin Dells2.25#728 ▼1 · 7-C
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
34▼10Whitewater checkBelow cut lineWhitewater1.75Below cut line dropped45 ▼11 · Out
35T▼9Altoona checkBelow cut lineAltoona0.00Below cut line dropped37 ▼2 · Out
35T▼9Berlin checkBelow cut lineBerlin0.00Below cut line dropped18 ▲17 · 5-C projected in
35T▼9Black River Falls checkBelow cut lineBlack River Falls0.00Below cut line dropped32 ▲3 · 8-B projected in
35T▼9Brown Deer checkBelow cut lineBrown Deer0.00Below cut line dropped41 ▼6 · Out
35T▼9Campbellsport checkBelow cut lineCampbellsport0.00Below cut line dropped24 ▲11 · 6-D projected in
35T▼9Ellsworth checkBelow cut lineEllsworth0.00Below cut line dropped48T ▼13 · Out
35T▼9Fuller Collegiate Academy checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line dropped12 ▲23 · 3-B projected in
35T▼9Mauston checkBelow cut lineMauston0.00Below cut line dropped20 ▲15 · 5-A projected in
35T▼9Mosinee checkBelow cut lineMosinee0.00Below cut line dropped47 ▼12 · Out
35T▼9North Fond du Lac checkBelow cut lineNorth Fond du Lac0.00Below cut line dropped48T ▼13 · Out
35T▼9Saint Croix Central checkBelow cut lineHammond0.00Below cut line dropped42 ▼7 · Out
35T▼9Saint Thomas More checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line dropped35 – · Out
35T▼9Sheboygan Falls checkBelow cut lineSheboygan Falls0.00Below cut line dropped48T ▼13 · Out
35T▼9Turner checkBelow cut lineBeloit0.00Below cut line dropped30 ▲5 · 8-D projected in
35T▼9Waupun checkBelow cut lineWaupun0.00Below cut line dropped36 ▼1 · Out
35T▼9Xavier checkBelow cut lineAppleton0.00Below cut line dropped21 ▲14 · 6-C projected in
—Milwaukee Madison checkMilwaukee0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 2 (games through Saturday 2026-08-29). 33 of 50 in the field, 20 placed (13 waiting on a tie-break).

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Jefferson (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Fort AtkinsonW5.5 (D3)5.506.502yes
2026-08-28WhitewaterW5 (D4)5.003.502yes

Tier 1 AVG = 10.50 ÷ 2 = 5.250. Tier 2 points = 6.50 + 3.50 = 10.00; opponents’ games = 2 + 2 = 4; Tier 2 AVG = 10.00 ÷ 4 = 2.500. Total = 5.250 + 9 × 2.500 = 27.75.

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

WIAA Football Playoff Brackets: Official and Projected | Ewert Sports | Ewert Sports