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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 4 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 3Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 9:31 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

Unresolved tie: Jefferson and Lake Mills (rank 8, seed #2). Tied at rank 8, across the #2/#3 seed line: placement waits for WIAA's tie-break (Tier 3, then its own procedure). Their slots are left empty.

ES pick: Freedom, 98.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 99%8 LodiES pick: Wrightstown, 92.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 WrightstownES 92%5 AshlandES pick: Seymour, 82.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 SeymourES 83%6 RiponES pick: Kohler, 62.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 KohlerES 62%7 BerlinES pick: Freedom, 96.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 97%4 WrightstownES pick: Seymour, 54.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 SeymourES 54%2 KohlerES pick: Freedom, 99.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 99%3 SeymourES pick: Northwestern, 70.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 NorthwesternES 70%8 OsceolaES pick: Denmark, 75.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 DenmarkES 75%5 Oconto Falls6 Shoreland Lutheran2 tie unresolved7 EvansvilleES pick: Northwestern, 94.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 NorthwesternES 94%4 DenmarkTBDTBD1 NorthwesternTBDES pick: Stratford, 85.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 StratfordES 86%8 SomersetES pick: Racine St. Catherine's, 91.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Racine St. C…ES 92%5 Saint FrancisES pick: Aquinas, 75.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 AquinasES 75%6 PlattevilleES pick: West Salem, 97.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West SalemES 98%7 Black River FallsES pick: Stratford, 66.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 StratfordES 66%4 Racine St. Catherine's3 AquinasES pick: West Salem, 83.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West SalemES 84%1 StratfordES pick: West Salem, 71.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West SalemES 72%ES pick: Little Chute, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 100%8 Wisconsin Dells4 Two RiversES pick: Marinette, 71.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 MarinetteES 71%ES pick: Delavan-Darien, 87.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Delavan-Dari…ES 87%6 EdgertonES pick: Edgewood, 98.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgewoodES 99%7 MaustonES pick: Little Chute, 99.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 100%5 Marinette3 Delavan-DarienES pick: Edgewood, 75.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgewoodES 76%ES pick: Little Chute, 88.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 89%2 Edgewood1 FreedomTBDState semifinal2 West SalemES pick: Little Chute, 63.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Little ChuteES 64%State semifinalTBD1 Little ChuteState finalRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 4 · Week 3 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 3. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 3. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 2: in Berlin (35 → 25), Black River Falls (35 → 26), Mauston (35 → 26) · out Kewaskum (23 → 37), Lakeside Lutheran (23 → 37), Milwaukee School of Languages (23 → 37), Big Foot (27 → 33). Biggest climbs: Stratford ▲13, Racine St. Catherine's ▲11, Little Chute ▲10. Biggest drops: Marinette ▼14, Denmark ▼12, Evansville ▼8.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲4Freedom checkFreedom26.671-A1 – · 1-A
2▲10Little Chute checkLittle Chute24.671-D4 ▼2 · 1-B
3▲13Stratford checkStratford24.501-C7 ▼4 · 2-B
4▲4Northwestern checkMaple22.671-B6 ▼2 · 2-A
5▼3West Salem checkWest Salem19.832-C5 – · 2-C
6▲1Kohler checkKohler16.172-A39 ▼33 · Out projected out
7▲7Edgewood checkMadison14.502-D8 ▼1 · 2-D
8T▼7Jefferson checkJefferson13.50#240 ▼32 · Out projected out
8T▲5Lake Mills checkLake Mills13.50#22 ▲6 · 1-C
10▼4Seymour checkSeymour12.833-A25 ▼15 · 7-B
11▲4Delavan-Darien checkDelavan12.833-D11 – · 3-D
12▼2Aquinas checkLa Crosse12.003-C10 ▲2 · 3-C
13▼5Wrightstown checkWrightstown11.674-A23 ▼10 · 6-B
14▼12Denmark checkDenmark10.834-B31 ▼17 · 8-A
15▲2Two Rivers checkTwo Rivers10.174-D44 ▼29 · Out projected out
16▲11Racine St. Catherine's checkRacine8.674-C3 ▲13 · 1-D
17▼7Ashland checkAshland8.505-A22 ▼5 · 6-A
18▼14Marinette checkMarinette8.105-D38 ▼20 · Out projected out
19–Saint Francis checkSaint Francis7.675-C14 ▲5 · 4-D
20▲1Oconto Falls checkOconto Falls7.175-B34 ▼14 · Out projected out
21▲2Platteville checkPlatteville7.006-C15 ▲6 · 4-B
22▼4Ripon checkRipon6.836-A26 ▼4 · 7-D
23▲4Edgerton checkEdgerton6.676-D29 ▼6 · 8-C
24▲3Shoreland Lutheran checkKenosha6.006-B19 ▲5 · 5-D
25▲10Berlin checkBerlin6.007-A in18 ▲7 · 5-C
26T▲9Black River Falls checkBlack River Falls4.837-C in32 ▼6 · 8-B
26T▲9Mauston checkMauston4.837-D in20 ▲6 · 5-A
28▼8Evansville checkEvansville4.507-B17 ▲11 · 5-B
29▼8Lodi checkLodi3.338-A13 ▲16 · 4-A
30T▼3Osceola checkOsceola3.178-B9 ▲21 · 3-A
30T▼3Somerset checkSomerset3.178-C27 ▲3 · 7-A
30T▼3Wisconsin Dells checkWisconsin Dells3.178-D28 ▲2 · 7-C
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼6Big Foot checkBelow cut lineWalworth2.83Below cut line dropped43 ▼10 · Out
34▲1Fuller Collegiate Academy checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee2.25Below cut line12 ▲22 · 3-B projected in
35T–Mosinee checkBelow cut lineMosinee1.83Below cut line47 ▼12 · Out
35T–Xavier checkBelow cut lineAppleton1.83Below cut line21 ▲14 · 6-C projected in
37T▼14Kewaskum checkBelow cut lineKewaskum1.67Below cut line dropped33 ▲4 · Out
37T▼14Lakeside Lutheran checkBelow cut lineLake Mills1.67Below cut line dropped16 ▲21 · 4-C projected in
37T▼14Milwaukee School of Languages checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee1.67Below cut line dropped46 ▼9 · Out
40▼6Whitewater checkBelow cut lineWhitewater1.17Below cut line45 ▼5 · Out
41T▼6Altoona checkBelow cut lineAltoona0.00Below cut line37 ▲4 · Out
41T▼6Brown Deer checkBelow cut lineBrown Deer0.00Below cut line41 – · Out
41T▼6Campbellsport checkBelow cut lineCampbellsport0.00Below cut line24 ▲17 · 6-D projected in
41T▼6Ellsworth checkBelow cut lineEllsworth0.00Below cut line48T ▼7 · Out
41T▼6North Fond du Lac checkBelow cut lineNorth Fond du Lac0.00Below cut line48T ▼7 · Out
41T▼6Saint Croix Central checkBelow cut lineHammond0.00Below cut line42 ▼1 · Out
41T▼6Saint Thomas More checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line35 ▲6 · Out
41T▼6Sheboygan Falls checkBelow cut lineSheboygan Falls0.00Below cut line48T ▼7 · Out
41T▼6Turner checkBelow cut lineBeloit0.00Below cut line30 ▲11 · 8-D projected in
41T▼6Waupun checkBelow cut lineWaupun0.00Below cut line36 ▲5 · Out
—Milwaukee Madison checkMilwaukee0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 3 (games through Saturday 2026-09-05). 32 of 50 in the field, 30 placed (2 waiting on a tie-break).

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Freedom (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Lake MillsW5 (D4)5.0010.503yes
2026-08-28XavierW5 (D4)5.005.503yes
2026-09-04New LondonW5.5 (D3)5.505.503yes

Tier 1 AVG = 15.50 ÷ 3 = 5.167. Tier 2 points = 10.50 + 5.50 + 5.50 = 21.50; opponents’ games = 3 + 3 + 3 = 9; Tier 2 AVG = 21.50 ÷ 9 = 2.389. Total = 5.167 + 9 × 2.389 = 26.67 (Tier 3 tie-break 3.33).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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