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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 4 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 5Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 10:33 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Freedom, 99.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 100%8 Oconto Falls4 KohlerES pick: Denmark, 64.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 DenmarkES 65%ES pick: Edgerton, 78.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 EdgertonES 78%6 JeffersonES pick: Lake Mills, 77.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Lake MillsES 77%7 Lakeside LutheranES pick: Freedom, 99.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 99%5 Denmark3 EdgertonES pick: Lake Mills, 96.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Lake MillsES 96%ES pick: Freedom, 93.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 93%2 Lake MillsES pick: Little Chute, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 100%8 MaustonES pick: Xavier, 90.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 XavierES 90%5 Berlin3 AquinasES pick: Osceola, 52.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 OsceolaES 52%ES pick: West Salem, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West SalemES 100%7 Two RiversES pick: Little Chute, 94.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 95%4 Xavier6 OsceolaES pick: West Salem, 80.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West SalemES 80%ES pick: Little Chute, 67.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 67%2 West SalemES pick: Stratford, 85.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 StratfordES 86%8 SomersetES pick: Racine St. Catherine's, 87.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Racine St. C…ES 88%5 Campbellsport3 RiponES pick: Ashland, 70.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 AshlandES 71%ES pick: Northwestern, 96.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 NorthwesternES 96%7 SeymourES pick: Stratford, 66.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 StratfordES 66%4 Racine St. Catherine's6 AshlandES pick: Northwestern, 97.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 NorthwesternES 97%1 StratfordES pick: Northwestern, 59.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 NorthwesternES 60%ES pick: Edgewood, 94.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 EdgewoodES 95%8 TurnerES pick: Evansville, 50.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 EvansvilleES 51%5 PlattevilleES pick: Shoreland Lutheran, 62.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Shoreland Lu…ES 63%6 Saint FrancisES pick: Delavan-Darien, 97.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Delavan-Dari…ES 98%7 Fuller Collegiate Aca…ES pick: Edgewood, 79.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 EdgewoodES 80%4 Evansville3 Shoreland LutheranES pick: Delavan-Darien, 78.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Delavan-Dari…ES 79%ES pick: Edgewood, 75.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 EdgewoodES 76%2 Delavan-DarienES pick: Freedom, 71.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 FreedomES 71%1 Little ChuteState semifinalES pick: Northwestern, 69.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 NorthwesternES 69%1 EdgewoodState semifinalES pick: Freedom, 88.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 FreedomES 88%2 NorthwesternState final · ES pick: FreedomRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 4 · Week 5 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 5. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 5. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 4: in Campbellsport (34 → 20), Osceola (35 → 23), Fuller Collegiate Academy (37 → 27), Somerset (39 → 31) · out Wrightstown (23 → 34), Lodi (29 → 37), Marinette (31 → 40), Big Foot (32 → 39). Biggest climbs: Xavier ▲15, Campbellsport ▲14, Osceola ▲12. Biggest drops: Two Rivers ▼11, Seymour ▼10, Evansville ▼8.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Freedom checkFreedom34.261-A1 – · 1-A
2▲2Stratford checkStratford25.101-C7 ▼5 · 2-B
3▲4Edgewood checkMadison23.381-D8 ▼5 · 2-D
4▼2Little Chute checkLittle Chute23.201-B4 – · 1-B
5–West Salem checkWest Salem22.742-B5 – · 2-C
6▼3Northwestern checkMaple20.902-C6 – · 2-A
7▲1Delavan-Darien checkDelavan17.302-D11 ▼4 · 3-D
8▲4Lake Mills checkLake Mills16.602-A2 ▲6 · 1-C
9▲4Edgerton checkEdgerton16.243-A29 ▼20 · 8-C
10▲10Ripon checkRipon15.223-C26 ▼16 · 7-D
11–Shoreland Lutheran checkKenosha14.883-D19 ▼8 · 5-D
12▼3Aquinas checkLa Crosse14.863-B10 ▲2 · 3-C
13▲11Racine St. Catherine's checkRacine14.604-C3 ▲10 · 1-D
14▼8Evansville checkEvansville13.444-D17 ▼3 · 5-B
15▲15Xavier checkAppleton10.484-B21 ▼6 · 6-C
16▼6Kohler checkKohler10.344-A39 ▼23 · Out projected out
17▲8Berlin checkBerlin10.265-B18 ▼1 · 5-C
18▼3Denmark checkDenmark10.245-A31 ▼13 · 8-A
19▼5Platteville checkPlatteville9.905-D15 ▲4 · 4-B
20▲14Campbellsport checkCampbellsport9.725-C in24 ▼4 · 6-D
21▲6Ashland checkAshland9.446-C22 ▼1 · 6-A
22▼4Saint Francis checkSaint Francis8.986-D14 ▲8 · 4-D
23▲12Osceola checkOsceola8.946-B in9 ▲14 · 3-A
24▼5Jefferson checkJefferson8.406-A40 ▼16 · Out projected out
25▼4Lakeside Lutheran checkLake Mills8.307-A16 ▲9 · 4-C
26▼10Seymour checkSeymour8.147-C25 ▲1 · 7-B
27▲10Fuller Collegiate Academy checkMilwaukee7.757-D in12 ▲15 · 3-B
28▼11Two Rivers checkTwo Rivers7.667-B44 ▼16 · Out projected out
29▼7Oconto Falls checkOconto Falls6.408-A34 ▼5 · Out projected out
30▼5Mauston checkMauston6.208-B20 ▲10 · 5-A
31▲8Somerset checkSomerset5.508-C in27 ▲4 · 7-A
32▼4Turner checkBeloit4.868-D30 ▲2 · 8-D
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▲10Brown Deer checkBelow cut lineBrown Deer4.75Below cut line41 ▼8 · Out
34▼11Wrightstown checkBelow cut lineWrightstown4.60Below cut line dropped23 ▲11 · 6-B projected in
35▲1Wisconsin Dells checkBelow cut lineWisconsin Dells4.42Below cut line28 ▲7 · 7-C projected in
36▼3Kewaskum checkBelow cut lineKewaskum4.24Below cut line33 ▲3 · Out
37▼8Lodi checkBelow cut lineLodi3.98Below cut line dropped13 ▲24 · 4-A projected in
38–Black River Falls checkBelow cut lineBlack River Falls3.68Below cut line32 ▲6 · 8-B projected in
39▼7Big Foot checkBelow cut lineWalworth3.20Below cut line dropped43 ▼4 · Out
40▼9Marinette checkBelow cut lineMarinette3.14Below cut line dropped38 ▲2 · Out
41▲2Altoona checkBelow cut lineAltoona2.70Below cut line37 ▲4 · Out
42▼2Mosinee checkBelow cut lineMosinee1.10Below cut line47 ▼5 · Out
43T▼2Milwaukee School of Languages checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee1.00Below cut line46 ▼3 · Out
43T–Saint Croix Central checkBelow cut lineHammond1.00Below cut line42 ▲1 · Out
45▼2Waupun checkBelow cut lineWaupun0.90Below cut line36 ▲9 · Out
46▼4Whitewater checkBelow cut lineWhitewater0.70Below cut line45 ▲1 · Out
47T▼4Ellsworth checkBelow cut lineEllsworth0.00Below cut line48T ▼1 · Out
47T▼4North Fond du Lac checkBelow cut lineNorth Fond du Lac0.00Below cut line48T ▼1 · Out
47T▼4Saint Thomas More checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line35 ▲12 · Out
47T▼4Sheboygan Falls checkBelow cut lineSheboygan Falls0.00Below cut line48T ▼1 · Out
—Milwaukee Madison checkMilwaukee0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 5 (games through Saturday 2026-09-19). 32 of 50 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Freedom (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Lake MillsW5 (D4)5.0020.005yes
2026-08-28XavierW5 (D4)5.0015.505yes
2026-09-04New LondonW5.5 (D3)5.5011.005yes
2026-09-11DenmarkW5 (D4)5.0021.505yes
2026-09-18KohlerW5 (D4)5.0013.005yes

Tier 1 AVG = 25.50 ÷ 5 = 5.100. Tier 2 points = 20.00 + 15.50 + 11.00 + 21.50 + 13.00 = 81.00; opponents’ games = 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 25; Tier 2 AVG = 81.00 ÷ 25 = 3.240. Total = 5.100 + 9 × 3.240 = 34.26 (Tier 3 tie-break 7.13).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

WIAA Football Playoff Brackets: Official and Projected | Ewert Sports | Ewert Sports