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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 4 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 7Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 12:18 PM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Freedom, 99.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 100%8 KohlerES pick: Evansville, 74.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 EvansvilleES 75%5 Shoreland LutheranES pick: Saint Francis, 90.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Saint FrancisES 91%6 Fuller Collegiate Aca…ES pick: Racine St. Catherine's, 87.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Racine St. C…ES 88%7 CampbellsportES pick: Freedom, 98.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 99%4 Evansville3 Saint FrancisES pick: Racine St. Catherine's, 91.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Racine St. C…ES 92%ES pick: Freedom, 96.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 96%2 Racine St. Catherine'sES pick: Stratford, 93.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 StratfordES 94%8 SeymourES pick: Lodi, 92.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 LodiES 93%5 RiponES pick: Lakeside Lutheran, 89.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Lakeside Lut…ES 90%6 EdgertonES pick: Lake Mills, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Lake MillsES 99%7 Wisconsin DellsES pick: Stratford, 85.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 StratfordES 85%4 Lodi3 Lakeside LutheranES pick: Lake Mills, 77.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Lake MillsES 77%ES pick: Stratford, 52.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 StratfordES 53%2 Lake MillsES pick: West Salem, 99.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West SalemES 100%8 Jefferson4 PlattevilleES pick: Osceola, 73.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 OsceolaES 74%ES pick: Aquinas, 70.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 AquinasES 70%6 XavierES pick: Edgewood, 82.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgewoodES 82%7 SomersetES pick: West Salem, 80.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West SalemES 80%5 Osceola3 AquinasES pick: Edgewood, 57.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgewoodES 57%ES pick: West Salem, 82.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West SalemES 82%2 EdgewoodES pick: Little Chute, 99.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 100%8 Saint Thomas More4 BerlinES pick: Denmark, 71.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 DenmarkES 72%ES pick: Northwestern, 97.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 NorthwesternES 97%6 AshlandES pick: Delavan-Darien, 96.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Delavan-Dari…ES 97%7 MaustonES pick: Little Chute, 98.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 98%5 DenmarkES pick: Northwestern, 83.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 NorthwesternES 84%2 Delavan-DarienES pick: Little Chute, 77.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 78%3 NorthwesternES pick: Freedom, 92.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 FreedomES 93%1 StratfordState semifinal1 West SalemES pick: Little Chute, 63.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Little ChuteES 64%State semifinalES pick: Freedom, 71.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 FreedomES 71%1 Little ChuteState final · ES pick: FreedomRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 4 · Week 7 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 7. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 7. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 6: in Wisconsin Dells (34 → 26), Somerset (35 → 28), Saint Thomas More (36 → 32) · out Oconto Falls (26 → 34), Turner (31 → 33), Wrightstown (32 → 36). Biggest climbs: Wisconsin Dells ▲8, Lodi ▲7, Somerset ▲7. Biggest drops: Edgerton ▼6, Campbellsport ▼6, Shoreland Lutheran ▼5.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Freedom checkFreedom32.261-A1 – · 1-A
2▲4Little Chute checkLittle Chute24.171-D4 ▼2 · 1-B
3▼1West Salem checkWest Salem23.501-C5 ▼2 · 2-C
4▼1Stratford checkStratford22.841-B7 ▼3 · 2-B
5▼1Lake Mills checkLake Mills22.652-B2 ▲3 · 1-C
6▼1Edgewood checkMadison21.272-C8 ▼2 · 2-D
7▲2Racine St. Catherine's checkRacine20.192-A3 ▲4 · 1-D
8▼1Delavan-Darien checkDelavan17.392-D11 ▼3 · 3-D
9▼1Northwestern checkMaple16.973-D6 ▲3 · 2-A
10▲2Aquinas checkLa Crosse16.603-C10 – · 3-C
11–Saint Francis checkSaint Francis15.353-A14 ▼3 · 4-D
12▲6Lakeside Lutheran checkLake Mills14.473-B16 ▼4 · 4-C
13▲4Evansville checkEvansville13.694-A17 ▼4 · 5-B
14▼4Berlin checkBerlin13.394-D18 ▼4 · 5-C
15▲4Platteville checkPlatteville12.954-C15 – · 4-B
16▲7Lodi checkLodi12.944-B13 ▲3 · 4-A
17▲3Osceola checkOsceola12.045-C9 ▲8 · 3-A
18▼5Shoreland Lutheran checkKenosha11.585-A19 ▼1 · 5-D
19▼5Denmark checkDenmark11.225-D31 ▼12 · 8-A
20▼4Ripon checkRipon11.095-B26 ▼6 · 7-D
21▼6Edgerton checkEdgerton10.856-B29 ▼8 · 8-C
22▲2Xavier checkAppleton10.716-C21 ▲1 · 6-C
23▼1Ashland checkAshland10.636-D22 ▲1 · 6-A
24▲1Fuller Collegiate Academy checkMilwaukee10.236-A12 ▲12 · 3-B
25▲5Mauston checkMauston10.017-D20 ▲5 · 5-A
26▲8Wisconsin Dells checkWisconsin Dells9.237-B in28 ▼2 · 7-C
27▼6Campbellsport checkCampbellsport9.167-A24 ▲3 · 6-D
28▲7Somerset checkSomerset7.057-C in27 ▲1 · 7-A
29▼1Jefferson checkJefferson6.738-C40 ▼11 · Out projected out
30▼3Kohler checkKohler6.458-A39 ▼9 · Out projected out
31▼2Seymour checkSeymour6.448-B25 ▲6 · 7-B
32▲4Saint Thomas More checkMilwaukee6.408-D in35 ▼3 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼2Turner checkBelow cut lineBeloit6.24Below cut line dropped30 ▲3 · 8-D projected in
34▼8Oconto Falls checkBelow cut lineOconto Falls6.04Below cut line dropped34 – · Out
35▲9Altoona checkBelow cut lineAltoona5.69Below cut line37 ▼2 · Out
36▼4Wrightstown checkBelow cut lineWrightstown5.19Below cut line dropped23 ▲13 · 6-B projected in
37▲6Marinette checkBelow cut lineMarinette4.99Below cut line38 ▼1 · Out
38▼1Brown Deer checkBelow cut lineBrown Deer4.56Below cut line41 ▼3 · Out
39▼6Two Rivers checkBelow cut lineTwo Rivers4.18Below cut line44 ▼5 · Out
40▼1Kewaskum checkBelow cut lineKewaskum4.07Below cut line33 ▲7 · Out
41▼3Black River Falls checkBelow cut lineBlack River Falls4.06Below cut line32 ▲9 · 8-B projected in
42–Big Foot checkBelow cut lineWalworth3.42Below cut line43 ▼1 · Out
43▼2Saint Croix Central checkBelow cut lineHammond3.08Below cut line42 ▲1 · Out
44▼4Whitewater checkBelow cut lineWhitewater2.78Below cut line45 ▼1 · Out
45▲2Waupun checkBelow cut lineWaupun2.11Below cut line36 ▲9 · Out
46▼1Mosinee checkBelow cut lineMosinee0.79Below cut line47 ▼1 · Out
47▼1Milwaukee School of Languages checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.71Below cut line46 ▲1 · Out
48T–Ellsworth checkBelow cut lineEllsworth0.00Below cut line48T – · Out
48T–North Fond du Lac checkBelow cut lineNorth Fond du Lac0.00Below cut line48T – · Out
48T–Sheboygan Falls checkBelow cut lineSheboygan Falls0.00Below cut line48T – · Out
—Milwaukee Madison checkMilwaukee0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 7 (games through Saturday 2026-10-03). 32 of 50 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Freedom (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Lake MillsW5 (D4)5.0030.007yes
2026-08-28XavierW5 (D4)5.0021.007yes
2026-09-04New LondonW5.5 (D3)5.5016.507yes
2026-09-11DenmarkW5 (D4)5.0026.507yes
2026-09-18KohlerW5 (D4)5.0013.007yes
2026-09-25Little ChuteW5 (D4)5.0031.007yes
2026-10-02WrightstownW5 (D4)5.0010.007yes

Tier 1 AVG = 35.50 ÷ 7 = 5.071. Tier 2 points = 30.00 + 21.00 + 16.50 + 26.50 + 13.00 + 31.00 + 10.00 = 148.00; opponents’ games = 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 = 49; Tier 2 AVG = 148.00 ÷ 49 = 3.020. Total = 5.071 + 9 × 3.020 = 32.26 (Tier 3 tie-break 9.09).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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