Menu

Playoff Bracket · Football Division 5 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 9Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 9:31 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Amherst, 98.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 99%8 Wittenberg-BirnamwoodES pick: Chilton, 73.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 ChiltonES 73%5 PeshtigoES pick: Brillion, 88.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 BrillionES 89%6 TomahawkES pick: Grantsburg, 97.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 GrantsburgES 98%7 Spencer/Columbus Cath…ES pick: Amherst, 98.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 98%4 Chilton3 BrillionES pick: Grantsburg, 75.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 GrantsburgES 76%ES pick: Amherst, 77.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 78%2 GrantsburgES pick: Darlington, 99.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 DarlingtonES 99%8 DodgevilleES pick: Elk Mound, 98.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Elk MoundES 99%5 WestfieldES pick: Watertown Luther Prep, 76.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Watertown Lu…ES 76%6 ArcadiaES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 98.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Durand-Arkan…ES 99%7 Ozaukee/Random LakeES pick: Darlington, 93.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 DarlingtonES 94%4 Elk Mound3 Watertown Luther PrepES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 64.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Durand-Arkan…ES 65%ES pick: Darlington, 92.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 DarlingtonES 93%2 Durand-ArkansawES pick: New Glarus, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New GlarusES 99%8 Bloomer4 New HolsteinES pick: Winnebago Lutheran, 51.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Winnebago Lu…ES 51%ES pick: Mayville, 77.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 MayvilleES 77%6 AmeryES pick: Saint Croix Falls, 93.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Saint Croix…ES 93%7 OostburgES pick: New Glarus, 86.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New GlarusES 86%5 Winnebago LutheranES pick: Mayville, 52.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 MayvilleES 53%2 Saint Croix FallsES pick: New Glarus, 65.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New GlarusES 65%3 MayvilleES pick: Racine Lutheran, 96.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 96%8 ColumbusES pick: Kiel, 60.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 KielES 61%5 Milwaukee Acad. of Sc…3 Milwaukee North/Milwa…ES pick: University School of Milwaukee, 66.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 University S…ES 67%ES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 99.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Lake Country…ES 100%7 Brookfield Acad.ES pick: Racine Lutheran, 93.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 94%4 Kiel6 University School of…ES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 99.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Lake Country…ES 100%ES pick: Racine Lutheran, 58.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 59%2 Lake Country Lutheran1 AmherstES pick: Darlington, 70.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 DarlingtonES 71%State semifinalES pick: New Glarus, 53.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 New GlarusES 54%1 Racine LutheranState semifinalES pick: Darlington, 86.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 DarlingtonES 87%1 New GlarusState final · ES pick: DarlingtonRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 5 · Week 9 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 9. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 9. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 8: in Dodgeville (38 → 29) · out Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau (32 → 33). Biggest climbs: Dodgeville ▲9, New Holstein ▲5, Peshtigo ▲5. Biggest drops: Arcadia ▼6, University School of Milwaukee ▼4, Ozaukee/Random Lake ▼3.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Racine Lutheran checkRacine26.381-D1 – · 1-D
2–Darlington checkDarlington26.331-B2 – · 1-B
3–Amherst checkAmherst23.331-A3 – · 1-A
4–New Glarus checkNew Glarus21.501-C4 – · 1-C
5–Durand-Arkansaw checkDurand19.392-B5 – · 2-B
6▲1Saint Croix Falls checkSaint Croix Falls17.782-C6 – · 2-C
7▼1Grantsburg checkGrantsburg17.062-A7 – · 2-A
8▲1Lake Country Lutheran checkHartland16.222-D8 – · 2-D
9▼1Brillion checkBrillion15.093-A9 – · 3-A
10–Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning check14.403-D10 – · 3-D
11▲1Watertown Luther Prep checkWatertown14.393-B11 – · 3-B
12▼1Mayville checkMayville13.113-C12 – · 3-C
13▲1Elk Mound checkElk Mound11.834-B13 – · 4-B
14▼1Chilton checkChilton11.504-A14 – · 4-A
15▲5New Holstein checkNew Holstein11.504-C15 – · 4-C
16▼1Kiel checkKiel11.394-D16 – · 4-D
17▲2Westfield checkWestfield10.835-B17 – · 5-B
18▼2Winnebago Lutheran checkFond du Lac10.615-C18 – · 5-C
19▲2Milwaukee Academy of Science checkMilwaukee10.285-D19 – · 5-D
20▲5Peshtigo checkPeshtigo9.615-A20 – · 5-A
21▲1Amery checkAmery9.566-C21 – · 6-C
22▼4University School of Milwaukee checkMilwaukee8.596-D22 – · 6-D
23▼6Arcadia checkArcadia8.396-B23 – · 6-B
24▲2Tomahawk checkTomahawk7.726-A24 – · 6-A
25▼1Spencer/Columbus Catholic check7.567-A25 – · 7-A
26▼3Ozaukee/Random Lake check7.567-B26 – · 7-B
27▲1Brookfield Academy checkBrookfield6.967-D27 – · 7-D
28▼1Oostburg checkOostburg6.337-C28 – · 7-C
29▲9Dodgeville checkDodgeville5.898-B in29 – · 8-B
30–Bloomer checkBloomer5.228-C30 – · 8-C
31–Wittenberg-Birnamwood checkWittenberg5.118-A31 – · 8-A
32▼3Columbus checkColumbus5.008-D32 – · 8-D
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼1Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau checkBelow cut lineGalesville4.50Below cut line dropped33 – · Out
34▲2Obama SCTE checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee4.04Below cut line34 – · Out
35▼1Northland Pines checkBelow cut lineEagle River3.78Below cut line35 – · Out
36▼3Neillsville/Granton checkBelow cut line3.67Below cut line36 – · Out
37▼2Wautoma checkBelow cut lineWautoma3.56Below cut line37 – · Out
38▼1East Troy checkBelow cut lineEast Troy3.00Below cut line38 – · Out
39▲6Southwestern/East Dubuque (IL) checkBelow cut line2.72Below cut line39 – · Out
40–Parkview/Albany checkBelow cut line2.72Below cut line40 – · Out
41▼2Kingdom Prep Lutheran checkBelow cut lineWauwatosa2.12Below cut line41 – · Out
42▼1Richland Center checkBelow cut lineRichland Center2.00Below cut line42 – · Out
43▼1Spooner checkBelow cut lineSpooner1.33Below cut line43 – · Out
44T▼1Omro checkBelow cut lineOmro0.56Below cut line44T – · Out
44T▼1Prescott checkBelow cut linePrescott0.56Below cut line44T – · Out
46T▲1Brodhead/Juda checkBelow cut line0.50Below cut line46T – · Out
46T▼1Sturgeon Bay checkBelow cut lineSturgeon Bay0.50Below cut line46T – · Out
48T▼1Adams-Friendship checkBelow cut lineAdams0.00Below cut line48T – · Out
48T▼1Clintonville checkBelow cut lineClintonville0.00Below cut line48T – · Out
48T▼1River Valley checkBelow cut lineSpring Green0.00Below cut line48T – · Out
48T▼1Viroqua checkBelow cut lineViroqua0.00Below cut line48T – · Out
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 9 (games dated Friday 2026-10-16 or earlier; WIAA deadline: completion before 11:59 p.m. Central; stored dates do not establish finish times). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Racine Lutheran (rank 1, seed 1)

WIAA's final Week 9 report credits Catholic Central/Ken Ch Life as an opponent with 8 games and 4.5 Tier 1 points, plus 1 win. Its played-results ledger retains 2–7 over 9 games and 8 Tier 1 points. The official aggregate supplies opponent credit; it does not identify which game WIAA excluded or change a played result. The Tier 3 tie-break remains pending verification when it depends on this differing ledger.

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Marmion Academy, ILW5.5 (D3)5.5016.509yes
2026-08-28Martin LutherW5.5 (D3)5.5022.009yes
2026-09-04Saint FrancisW5 (D4)5.0036.509yes
2026-09-10Milwaukee Academy of ScienceW4.5 (D5)4.5024.509yes
2026-09-18CudahyW5.5 (D3)5.503.509yes
2026-09-25Catholic Central/Ken Ch LifeW (Seeding Only)4 (D6)4.004.508yes. Replacement win counted instead of the forfeit win over Catholic Central that week (more favorable, regulations 3h).
2026-09-25Catholic CentralW (forfeit)3.5 (D7)———Not counted: this forfeit win was replaced by the more favorable win on 2026-09-25 (regulations 3h).
2026-10-02University School of MilwaukeeW4.5 (D5)4.5029.009yes
2026-10-09Kenosha St. Joseph CatholicW4 (D6)4.0032.009yes
2026-10-16Pius XI CatholicW5.5 (D3)5.5022.509yes

Tier 1 AVG = 44.00 ÷ 9 = 4.889. Tier 2 points = 16.50 + 22.00 + 36.50 + 24.50 + 3.50 + 4.50 + 29.00 + 32.00 + 22.50 = 191.00; opponents’ games = 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 8 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 80; Tier 2 AVG = 191.00 ÷ 80 = 2.388. Total = 4.889 + 9 × 2.388 = 26.38 (Tier 3 tie-break pending verification).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

WIAA Football Playoff Brackets: Official and Projected | Ewert Sports | Ewert Sports