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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 5 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 2Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 9:31 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

Unresolved tie: Adams-Friendship and Bloomer and Brodhead/Juda and Brookfield Academy and Clintonville and Columbus and Dodgeville and East Troy and Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau and Milwaukee Academy of Science and Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning and Obama SCTE and Omro and Parkview/Albany and Peshtigo and Prescott and River Valley and Southwestern/East Dubuque (IL) and Spooner and Tomahawk and Viroqua and Watertown Luther Prep (rank 30, seed #8). Tied at rank 30, on the cut line: WIAA breaks the tie by Tier 3 and then its own procedure, so neither team is placed here. Their slots are left empty.

1 Chilton8 tie unresolved4 WautomaES pick: Spencer/Columbus Catholic, 93.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Spencer/Colu…ES 94%ES pick: Saint Croix Falls, 95.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Saint Croix…ES 95%6 Northland PinesES pick: Amherst, 98.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 AmherstES 99%7 Wittenberg-BirnamwoodTBD5 Spencer/Columbus Cath…3 Saint Croix FallsES pick: Amherst, 87.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 AmherstES 87%TBD2 AmherstES pick: New Glarus, 84.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New GlarusES 84%8 AmeryES pick: Grantsburg, 68.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 GrantsburgES 68%5 Elk MoundES pick: Arcadia, 99.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 ArcadiaES 100%6 Kingdom Prep LutheranES pick: Darlington, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 DarlingtonES 100%7 Richland CenterES pick: New Glarus, 55.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New GlarusES 56%4 Grantsburg3 ArcadiaES pick: Darlington, 98.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 DarlingtonES 98%1 New GlarusES pick: Darlington, 85.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 DarlingtonES 85%1 Lake Country Lutheran8 tie unresolvedES pick: Westfield, 63.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 WestfieldES 64%5 Neillsville/GrantonES pick: Brillion, 91.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 BrillionES 91%6 OostburgES pick: Ozaukee/Random Lake, 88.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Ozaukee/Rand…ES 88%7 Sturgeon BayTBD4 WestfieldES pick: Brillion, 96.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 BrillionES 97%2 Ozaukee/Random LakeTBD3 Brillion1 Racine Lutheran8 tie unresolvedES pick: Mayville, 82.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 MayvilleES 83%5 New HolsteinES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 90.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Durand-Arkan…ES 91%6 Kiel2 University School of…ES pick: Winnebago Lutheran, 98.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.7 Winnebago Lu…ES 98%TBD4 MayvilleES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 78.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Durand-Arkan…ES 79%7 Winnebago LutheranTBD3 Durand-ArkansawTBD2 DarlingtonState semifinalTBDTBDState semifinalTBDTBDState finalRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 5 · Week 2 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 2. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 2. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 1: the same teams are in the field. Biggest climbs: Chilton ▲17, New Glarus ▲12, Durand-Arkansaw ▲10. Biggest drops: Richland Center ▼20, Winnebago Lutheran ▼20, Northland Pines ▼19.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲4Lake Country Lutheran checkHartland24.751-C8 ▼7 · 2-D
2▲12New Glarus checkNew Glarus24.251-B4 ▼2 · 1-C
3▲17Chilton checkChilton22.881-A14 ▼11 · 4-A
4▼2Racine Lutheran checkRacine22.251-D1 ▲3 · 1-D
5–Ozaukee/Random Lake check18.882-C26 ▼21 · 7-B
6▲8Darlington checkDarlington18.752-B2 ▲4 · 1-B
7▼6University School of Milwaukee checkMilwaukee17.002-D22 ▼15 · 6-D
8▼3Amherst checkAmherst14.632-A3 ▲5 · 1-A
9▲5Saint Croix Falls checkSaint Croix Falls14.383-A6 ▲3 · 2-C
10▲10Durand-Arkansaw checkDurand13.253-D5 ▲5 · 2-B
11▼6Brillion checkBrillion12.383-C9 ▲2 · 3-A
12▲8Arcadia checkArcadia11.383-B23 ▼11 · 6-B
13▼8Wautoma checkWautoma11.254-A37 ▼24 · Out projected out
14▼9Grantsburg checkGrantsburg11.254-B7 ▲7 · 2-A
15▼1Mayville checkMayville11.004-D12 ▲3 · 3-C
16▲8Westfield checkWestfield9.884-C17 ▼1 · 5-B
17T▼12Elk Mound checkElk Mound4.505-B13 ▲4 · 4-B
17T▼3New Holstein checkNew Holstein4.505-D15 ▲2 · 4-C
19T▲1Neillsville/Granton check3.755-C36 ▼17 · Out projected out
19T▼5Spencer/Columbus Catholic check3.755-A25 ▼6 · 7-A
21▲3Kingdom Prep Lutheran checkWauwatosa3.256-B41 ▼20 · Out projected out
22▼19Northland Pines checkEagle River2.756-A35 ▼13 · Out projected out
23T▲1Kiel checkKiel2.506-D16 ▲7 · 4-D
23T▼19Oostburg checkOostburg2.506-C28 ▼5 · 7-C
25T▼20Richland Center checkRichland Center2.257-B42 ▼17 · Out projected out
25T▼1Sturgeon Bay checkSturgeon Bay2.257-C46T ▼21 · Out projected out
25T▼20Winnebago Lutheran checkFond du Lac2.257-D18 ▲7 · 5-C
25T▼1Wittenberg-Birnamwood checkWittenberg2.257-A31 ▼6 · 8-A
29▼5Amery checkAmery2.008-B21 ▲8 · 6-C
30T▼6Adams-Friendship checkAdams0.00#848T ▼18 · Out projected out
30T▼6Bloomer checkBloomer0.00#830 – · 8-C
30T▼6Brodhead/Juda check0.00#846T ▼16 · Out projected out
30T▼6Brookfield Academy checkBrookfield0.00#827 ▲3 · 7-D
30T▼6Clintonville checkClintonville0.00#848T ▼18 · Out projected out
30T▼6Columbus checkColumbus0.00#832 ▼2 · 8-D
30T▼6Dodgeville checkDodgeville0.00#829 ▲1 · 8-B
30T▼6East Troy checkEast Troy0.00#838 ▼8 · Out projected out
30T▼6Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau checkGalesville0.00#833 ▼3 · Out projected out
30T▼6Milwaukee Academy of Science checkMilwaukee0.00#819 ▲11 · 5-D
30T▼6Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning check0.00#810 ▲20 · 3-D
30T▼6Obama SCTE checkMilwaukee0.00#834 ▼4 · Out projected out
30T▼6Omro checkOmro0.00#844T ▼14 · Out projected out
30T▼6Parkview/Albany check0.00#840 ▼10 · Out projected out
30T▼6Peshtigo checkPeshtigo0.00#820 ▲10 · 5-A
30T▼6Prescott checkPrescott0.00#844T ▼14 · Out projected out
30T▼6River Valley checkSpring Green0.00#848T ▼18 · Out projected out
30T▼6Southwestern/East Dubuque (IL) check0.00#839 ▼9 · Out projected out
30T▼6Spooner checkSpooner0.00#843 ▼13 · Out projected out
30T▼6Tomahawk checkTomahawk0.00#824 ▲6 · 6-A
30T▼6Viroqua checkViroqua0.00#848T ▼18 · Out projected out
30T▼6Watertown Luther Prep checkWatertown0.00#811 ▲19 · 3-B
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 2 (games through Saturday 2026-08-29). 51 of 51 in the field, 29 placed (22 waiting on a tie-break).

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Lake Country Lutheran (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21KielW4.5 (D5)4.505.002yes
2026-08-28MayvilleW4.5 (D5)4.504.002yes

Tier 1 AVG = 9.00 ÷ 2 = 4.500. Tier 2 points = 5.00 + 4.00 = 9.00; opponents’ games = 2 + 2 = 4; Tier 2 AVG = 9.00 ÷ 4 = 2.250. Total = 4.500 + 9 × 2.250 = 24.75 (Tier 3 tie-break 4.50).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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