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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 5 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 3Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 11:14 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

Unresolved tie: Dodgeville and Richland Center and Sturgeon Bay and Wittenberg-Birnamwood (rank 32, seed #8). Tied at rank 32, on the cut line: WIAA breaks the tie by Tier 3 and then its own procedure, so neither team is placed here. Their slots are left empty.

ES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 96.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Lake Country…ES 97%8 Northland PinesES pick: Chilton, 97.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 ChiltonES 98%5 Wautoma3 Ozaukee/Random LakeES pick: Winnebago Lutheran, 94.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Winnebago Lu…ES 95%ES pick: Amherst, 99.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 AmherstES 99%7 PeshtigoES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 93.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Lake Country…ES 94%4 Chilton6 Winnebago LutheranES pick: Amherst, 94.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 AmherstES 94%1 Lake Country LutheranES pick: Amherst, 76.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 AmherstES 76%1 Darlington8 tie unresolvedES pick: Saint Croix Falls, 80.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Saint Croix…ES 80%5 Arcadia3 Brookfield Acad.ES pick: Westfield, 73.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 WestfieldES 73%ES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 96.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Durand-Arkan…ES 96%7 Spencer/Columbus Cath…TBD4 Saint Croix Falls6 WestfieldES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 98.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Durand-Arkan…ES 99%TBD2 Durand-ArkansawES pick: New Glarus, 99.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New GlarusES 99%8 OmroES pick: Mayville, 93.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 MayvilleES 93%5 Milwaukee Acad. of Sc…ES pick: Elk Mound, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Elk MoundES 99%6 Neillsville/GrantonES pick: Grantsburg, 83.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 GrantsburgES 83%7 AmeryES pick: New Glarus, 65.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New GlarusES 65%4 Mayville3 Elk MoundES pick: Grantsburg, 68.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 GrantsburgES 68%ES pick: New Glarus, 55.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New GlarusES 56%2 GrantsburgES pick: Racine Lutheran, 73.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 73%8 Watertown Luther PrepES pick: Oostburg, 93.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 OostburgES 93%5 University School of…3 New HolsteinES pick: Brillion, 65.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 BrillionES 66%ES pick: Kiel, 99.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 KielES 99%7 Kingdom Prep LutheranES pick: Racine Lutheran, 96.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 96%4 OostburgES pick: Brillion, 80.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 BrillionES 81%2 KielES pick: Racine Lutheran, 74.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 75%6 Brillion2 AmherstTBDState semifinalES pick: New Glarus, 53.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 New GlarusES 54%1 Racine LutheranState semifinalTBD1 New GlarusState finalRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 5 · Week 3 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 3. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 3. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 2: out Adams-Friendship (30 → 36), Bloomer (30 → 36), Brodhead/Juda (30 → 36), Clintonville (30 → 36), Columbus (30 → 36), East Troy (30 → 36), Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau (30 → 36), Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning (30 → 36), Obama SCTE (30 → 36), Parkview/Albany (30 → 36), Prescott (30 → 36), River Valley (30 → 36), Southwestern/East Dubuque (IL) (30 → 36), Spooner (30 → 36), Tomahawk (30 → 36), Viroqua (30 → 36). Biggest climbs: Brookfield Academy ▲20, Kiel ▲16, Milwaukee Academy of Science ▲13. Biggest drops: University School of Milwaukee ▼13, Chilton ▼12, Brillion ▼11.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲3Racine Lutheran checkRacine31.211-D1 – · 1-D
2▲4Darlington checkDarlington27.621-B2 – · 1-B
3▼2Lake Country Lutheran checkHartland27.171-A8 ▼5 · 2-D
4▼2New Glarus checkNew Glarus25.001-C4 – · 1-C
5▲3Amherst checkAmherst16.332-A3 ▲2 · 1-A
6▲4Durand-Arkansaw checkDurand15.672-B5 ▲1 · 2-B
7▲16Kiel checkKiel15.172-D16 ▼9 · 4-D
8▲6Grantsburg checkGrantsburg15.172-C7 ▲1 · 2-A
9▲8New Holstein checkNew Holstein13.173-D15 ▼6 · 4-C
10▲20Brookfield Academy checkBrookfield13.003-B27 ▼17 · 7-D
11▼6Ozaukee/Random Lake check12.833-A26 ▼15 · 7-B
12▲5Elk Mound checkElk Mound12.003-C13 ▼1 · 4-B
13▲10Oostburg checkOostburg11.674-D28 ▼15 · 7-C
14▲1Mayville checkMayville11.334-C12 ▲2 · 3-C
15▼12Chilton checkChilton11.004-A14 ▲1 · 4-A
16▼7Saint Croix Falls checkSaint Croix Falls10.834-B6 ▲10 · 2-C
17▲13Milwaukee Academy of Science checkMilwaukee10.835-C19 ▼2 · 5-D
18▼6Arcadia checkArcadia10.835-B23 ▼5 · 6-B
19▼6Wautoma checkWautoma10.005-A37 ▼18 · Out projected out
20▼13University School of Milwaukee checkMilwaukee8.835-D22 ▼2 · 6-D
21▲4Winnebago Lutheran checkFond du Lac8.006-A18 ▲3 · 5-C
22▼11Brillion checkBrillion7.906-D9 ▲13 · 3-A
23▼4Neillsville/Granton check6.506-C36 ▼13 · Out projected out
24▼8Westfield checkWestfield6.336-B17 ▲7 · 5-B
25▲5Peshtigo checkPeshtigo6.007-A20 ▲5 · 5-A
26▼5Kingdom Prep Lutheran checkWauwatosa3.337-D41 ▼15 · Out projected out
27▲2Amery checkAmery3.007-C21 ▲6 · 6-C
28▼9Spencer/Columbus Catholic check2.507-B25 ▲3 · 7-A
29▲1Watertown Luther Prep checkWatertown2.178-D11 ▲18 · 3-B
30▼8Northland Pines checkEagle River1.838-A35 ▼5 · Out projected out
31▼1Omro checkOmro1.678-C44T ▼13 · Out projected out
32T▼2Dodgeville checkDodgeville1.50#829 ▲3 · 8-B
32T▼7Richland Center checkRichland Center1.50#842 ▼10 · Out projected out
32T▼7Sturgeon Bay checkSturgeon Bay1.50#846T ▼14 · Out projected out
32T▼7Wittenberg-Birnamwood checkWittenberg1.50#831 ▲1 · 8-A
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
36T▼6Adams-Friendship checkBelow cut lineAdams0.00Below cut line dropped48T ▼12 · Out
36T▼6Bloomer checkBelow cut lineBloomer0.00Below cut line dropped30 ▲6 · 8-C projected in
36T▼6Brodhead/Juda checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line dropped46T ▼10 · Out
36T▼6Clintonville checkBelow cut lineClintonville0.00Below cut line dropped48T ▼12 · Out
36T▼6Columbus checkBelow cut lineColumbus0.00Below cut line dropped32 ▲4 · 8-D projected in
36T▼6East Troy checkBelow cut lineEast Troy0.00Below cut line dropped38 ▼2 · Out
36T▼6Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau checkBelow cut lineGalesville0.00Below cut line dropped33 ▲3 · Out
36T▼6Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line dropped10 ▲26 · 3-D projected in
36T▼6Obama SCTE checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line dropped34 ▲2 · Out
36T▼6Parkview/Albany checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line dropped40 ▼4 · Out
36T▼6Prescott checkBelow cut linePrescott0.00Below cut line dropped44T ▼8 · Out
36T▼6River Valley checkBelow cut lineSpring Green0.00Below cut line dropped48T ▼12 · Out
36T▼6Southwestern/East Dubuque (IL) checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line dropped39 ▼3 · Out
36T▼6Spooner checkBelow cut lineSpooner0.00Below cut line dropped43 ▼7 · Out
36T▼6Tomahawk checkBelow cut lineTomahawk0.00Below cut line dropped24 ▲12 · 6-A projected in
36T▼6Viroqua checkBelow cut lineViroqua0.00Below cut line dropped48T ▼12 · Out
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 3 (games through Saturday 2026-09-05). 35 of 51 in the field, 31 placed (4 waiting on a tie-break).

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Racine Lutheran (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Marmion Academy, ILW6 (D2)6.000.001yes
2026-08-28Martin LutherW5.5 (D3)5.5010.503yes
2026-09-04Saint FrancisW5 (D4)5.009.503yes

Tier 1 AVG = 16.50 ÷ 3 = 5.500. Tier 2 points = 0.00 + 10.50 + 9.50 = 20.00; opponents’ games = 1 + 3 + 3 = 7; Tier 2 AVG = 20.00 ÷ 7 = 2.857. Total = 5.500 + 9 × 2.857 = 31.21 (Tier 3 tie-break pending verification).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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