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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 5 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 6Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 10:02 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Racine Lutheran, 96.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 96%8 Columbus4 Milwaukee North/Milwa…ES pick: University School of Milwaukee, 66.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 University S…ES 67%ES pick: Kiel, 89.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 KielES 90%6 Ozaukee/Random LakeES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 94.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Lake Country…ES 94%7 Milwaukee Acad. of Sc…ES pick: Racine Lutheran, 99.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 100%5 University School of…3 KielES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 92.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Lake Country…ES 92%ES pick: Racine Lutheran, 58.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 59%2 Lake Country LutheranES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Durand-Arkan…ES 98%8 Bloomer4 New HolsteinES pick: Elk Mound, 73.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Elk MoundES 74%ES pick: Arcadia, 75.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 ArcadiaES 76%6 TomahawkES pick: Saint Croix Falls, 98.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Saint Croix…ES 99%7 WestfieldES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 57.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Durand-Arkan…ES 58%5 Elk Mound3 ArcadiaES pick: Saint Croix Falls, 80.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Saint Croix…ES 80%ES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 59.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Durand-Arkan…ES 59%2 Saint Croix FallsES pick: New Glarus, 99.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New GlarusES 100%8 Neillsville/Granton4 Winnebago LutheranES pick: Watertown Luther Prep, 62.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Watertown Lu…ES 63%ES pick: Mayville, 99.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 MayvilleES 100%6 Brookfield Acad.ES pick: Darlington, 99.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 DarlingtonES 99%7 OostburgES pick: New Glarus, 75.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New GlarusES 76%5 Watertown Luther Prep3 MayvilleES pick: Darlington, 92.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 DarlingtonES 93%1 New GlarusES pick: Darlington, 85.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 DarlingtonES 85%ES pick: Amherst, 99.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 99%8 Peshtigo4 ChiltonES pick: Amery, 76.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 AmeryES 77%ES pick: Brillion, 91.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 BrillionES 92%6 Wittenberg-BirnamwoodES pick: Grantsburg, 97.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 GrantsburgES 98%7 Spencer/Columbus Cath…ES pick: Amherst, 93.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 94%5 Amery3 BrillionES pick: Grantsburg, 75.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 GrantsburgES 76%ES pick: Amherst, 77.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 78%2 GrantsburgES pick: Racine Lutheran, 59.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Racine Luthe…ES 59%1 Durand-ArkansawState semifinalES pick: Darlington, 70.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 DarlingtonES 71%1 AmherstState semifinal1 Racine LutheranES pick: Darlington, 88.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 DarlingtonES 88%State final · ES pick: DarlingtonRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 5 · Week 6 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 6. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 6. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 5: in Bloomer (35 → 30), Columbus (45 → 31) · out Wautoma (31 → 33), Spooner (32 → 36). Biggest climbs: Columbus ▲14, Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning ▲12, Watertown Luther Prep ▲11. Biggest drops: Brookfield Academy ▼7, Elk Mound ▼6, Lake Country Lutheran ▼5.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲5Durand-Arkansaw checkDurand22.501-B5 ▼4 · 2-B
2▼1New Glarus checkNew Glarus22.291-C4 ▼2 · 1-C
3–Amherst checkAmherst21.421-D3 – · 1-A
4–Racine Lutheran checkRacine21.341-A1 ▲3 · 1-D
5–Darlington checkDarlington21.212-C2 ▲3 · 1-B
6▲1Saint Croix Falls checkSaint Croix Falls19.542-B6 – · 2-C
7▼5Lake Country Lutheran checkHartland19.502-A8 ▼1 · 2-D
8▲1Grantsburg checkGrantsburg19.252-D7 ▲1 · 2-A
9▲2Kiel checkKiel15.303-A16 ▼7 · 4-D
10▼2Brillion checkBrillion14.903-D9 ▲1 · 3-A
11▲2Arcadia checkArcadia13.003-B23 ▼12 · 6-B
12▲8Mayville checkMayville12.543-C12 – · 3-C
13▼1Chilton checkChilton12.244-D14 ▼1 · 4-A
14▼4New Holstein checkNew Holstein11.714-B15 ▼1 · 4-C
15▲12Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning check11.544-A10 ▲5 · 3-D
16▲2Winnebago Lutheran checkFond du Lac10.924-C18 ▼2 · 5-C
17–Amery checkAmery10.925-D21 ▼4 · 6-C
18▲11Watertown Luther Prep checkWatertown10.885-C11 ▲7 · 3-B
19▼3University School of Milwaukee checkMilwaukee10.275-A22 ▼3 · 6-D
20▼6Elk Mound checkElk Mound10.045-B13 ▲7 · 4-B
21▲9Tomahawk checkTomahawk9.386-B24 ▼3 · 6-A
22▼7Brookfield Academy checkBrookfield9.296-C27 ▼5 · 7-D
23▼4Ozaukee/Random Lake check8.756-A26 ▼3 · 7-B
24▼3Wittenberg-Birnamwood checkWittenberg8.506-D31 ▼7 · 8-A
25▼3Spencer/Columbus Catholic check8.177-D25 – · 7-A
26▼3Oostburg checkOostburg7.257-C28 ▼2 · 7-C
27▼2Milwaukee Academy of Science checkMilwaukee7.217-A19 ▲8 · 5-D
28▼2Westfield checkWestfield7.007-B17 ▲11 · 5-B
29▼5Peshtigo checkPeshtigo5.888-D20 ▲9 · 5-A
30▲5Bloomer checkBloomer4.718-B in30 – · 8-C
31▲14Columbus checkColumbus4.588-A in32 ▼1 · 8-D
32▼4Neillsville/Granton check4.008-C36 ▼4 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼2Wautoma checkBelow cut lineWautoma3.75Below cut line dropped37 ▼4 · Out
34–Northland Pines checkBelow cut lineEagle River3.50Below cut line35 ▼1 · Out
35▲2East Troy checkBelow cut lineEast Troy2.96Below cut line38 ▼3 · Out
36▼4Spooner checkBelow cut lineSpooner2.67Below cut line dropped43 ▼7 · Out
37▼4Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau checkBelow cut lineGalesville2.67Below cut line33 ▲4 · Out
38T–Kingdom Prep Lutheran checkBelow cut lineWauwatosa1.67Below cut line41 ▼3 · Out
38T▼2Obama SCTE checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee1.67Below cut line34 ▲4 · Out
40▼1Dodgeville checkBelow cut lineDodgeville1.50Below cut line29 ▲11 · 8-B projected in
41T▼1Omro checkBelow cut lineOmro0.83Below cut line44T ▼3 · Out
41T▼1Prescott checkBelow cut linePrescott0.83Below cut line44T ▼3 · Out
43T▼1Richland Center checkBelow cut lineRichland Center0.75Below cut line42 ▲1 · Out
43T▼1Sturgeon Bay checkBelow cut lineSturgeon Bay0.75Below cut line46T ▼3 · Out
45▼1Parkview/Albany checkBelow cut line0.58Below cut line40 ▲5 · Out
46T▼1Adams-Friendship checkBelow cut lineAdams0.00Below cut line48T ▼2 · Out
46T▼1Brodhead/Juda checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line46T – · Out
46T▼1Clintonville checkBelow cut lineClintonville0.00Below cut line48T ▼2 · Out
46T▼1River Valley checkBelow cut lineSpring Green0.00Below cut line48T ▼2 · Out
46T▼1Southwestern/East Dubuque (IL) checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line39 ▲7 · Out
46T▼1Viroqua checkBelow cut lineViroqua0.00Below cut line48T ▼2 · Out
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 6 (games through Saturday 2026-09-26). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Durand-Arkansaw (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Spring ValleyW3.5 (D7)3.5015.006yes
2026-08-28Black River FallsW5 (D4)5.008.506yes
2026-09-04Stanley-BoydW4 (D6)4.004.006yes
2026-09-11Neillsville/GrantonW4.5 (D5)4.507.506yes
2026-09-18RegisW4 (D6)4.0020.506yes
2026-09-25Elk MoundW4.5 (D5)4.5017.506yes

Tier 1 AVG = 25.50 ÷ 6 = 4.250. Tier 2 points = 15.00 + 8.50 + 4.00 + 7.50 + 20.50 + 17.50 = 73.00; opponents’ games = 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 = 36; Tier 2 AVG = 73.00 ÷ 36 = 2.028. Total = 4.250 + 9 × 2.028 = 22.50 (Tier 3 tie-break 5.52).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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