Menu

Playoff Bracket · Football Division 5 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 7Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 10:33 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Racine Lutheran, 97.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 98%8 Peshtigo4 Milwaukee North/Milwa…ES pick: Ozaukee/Random Lake, 84.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Ozaukee/Rand…ES 85%ES pick: Kiel, 67.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 KielES 68%6 OostburgES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 99.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Lake Country…ES 100%7 Brookfield Acad.ES pick: Racine Lutheran, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 99%5 Ozaukee/Random Lake3 KielES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 92.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Lake Country…ES 92%ES pick: Racine Lutheran, 58.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 59%2 Lake Country LutheranES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Durand-Arkan…ES 98%8 BloomerES pick: Elk Mound, 81.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Elk MoundES 81%5 Arcadia3 ChiltonES pick: Amery, 76.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 AmeryES 77%ES pick: Saint Croix Falls, 93.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Saint Croix…ES 94%7 Wittenberg-BirnamwoodES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 57.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Durand-Arkan…ES 58%4 Elk Mound6 AmeryES pick: Saint Croix Falls, 71.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Saint Croix…ES 72%ES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 59.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Durand-Arkan…ES 59%2 Saint Croix FallsES pick: Darlington, 99.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 DarlingtonES 100%8 East TroyES pick: Watertown Luther Prep, 98.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Watertown Lu…ES 98%5 WestfieldES pick: Mayville, 99.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 MayvilleES 100%6 University School of…ES pick: New Glarus, 95.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 New GlarusES 96%7 Milwaukee Acad. of Sc…ES pick: Darlington, 95.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 DarlingtonES 95%4 Watertown Luther Prep3 MayvilleES pick: New Glarus, 65.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 New GlarusES 65%ES pick: Darlington, 88.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 DarlingtonES 89%2 New GlarusES pick: Amherst, 99.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 99%8 Northland PinesES pick: Winnebago Lutheran, 58.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Winnebago Lu…ES 59%5 New HolsteinES pick: Brillion, 88.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 BrillionES 89%6 TomahawkES pick: Grantsburg, 97.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 GrantsburgES 98%7 Spencer/Columbus Cath…ES pick: Amherst, 94.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 94%4 Winnebago Lutheran3 BrillionES pick: Grantsburg, 75.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 GrantsburgES 76%ES pick: Amherst, 77.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 78%2 GrantsburgES pick: Racine Lutheran, 59.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Racine Luthe…ES 59%1 Durand-ArkansawState semifinalES pick: Darlington, 70.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 DarlingtonES 71%1 AmherstState semifinal1 Racine LutheranES pick: Darlington, 88.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 DarlingtonES 88%State final · ES pick: DarlingtonRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 5 · Week 7 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 7. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 7. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 6: in East Troy (35 → 31), Northland Pines (34 → 32) · out Columbus (31 → 35), Neillsville/Granton (32 → 33). Biggest climbs: Westfield ▲8, Elk Mound ▲5, Watertown Luther Prep ▲4. Biggest drops: Arcadia ▼6, Amery ▼5, New Holstein ▼4.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲3Racine Lutheran checkRacine24.191-A1 – · 1-D
2▲3Darlington checkDarlington23.721-C2 – · 1-B
3–Amherst checkAmherst22.331-D3 – · 1-A
4▼3Durand-Arkansaw checkDurand21.221-B5 ▼1 · 2-B
5▼3New Glarus checkNew Glarus21.112-C4 ▲1 · 1-C
6–Saint Croix Falls checkSaint Croix Falls19.362-B6 – · 2-C
7▲1Grantsburg checkGrantsburg17.962-D7 – · 2-A
8▼1Lake Country Lutheran checkHartland16.482-A8 – · 2-D
9▲1Brillion checkBrillion16.093-D9 – · 3-A
10▲3Chilton checkChilton13.683-B14 ▼4 · 4-A
11▲1Mayville checkMayville13.523-C12 ▼1 · 3-C
12▼3Kiel checkKiel13.303-A16 ▼4 · 4-D
13▲3Winnebago Lutheran checkFond du Lac13.274-D18 ▼5 · 5-C
14▲4Watertown Luther Prep checkWatertown13.244-C11 ▲3 · 3-B
15▲5Elk Mound checkElk Mound12.994-B13 ▲2 · 4-B
16▼1Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning check12.604-A10 ▲6 · 3-D
17▼6Arcadia checkArcadia11.335-B23 ▼6 · 6-B
18▼4New Holstein checkNew Holstein10.605-D15 ▲3 · 4-C
19▲4Ozaukee/Random Lake check10.375-A26 ▼7 · 7-B
20▲8Westfield checkWestfield10.285-C17 ▲3 · 5-B
21▼2University School of Milwaukee checkMilwaukee9.686-C22 ▼1 · 6-D
22▼5Amery checkAmery9.236-B21 ▲1 · 6-C
23▲3Oostburg checkOostburg8.316-A28 ▼5 · 7-C
24▼3Tomahawk checkTomahawk8.146-D24 – · 6-A
25▲2Milwaukee Academy of Science checkMilwaukee7.727-C19 ▲6 · 5-D
26▼4Brookfield Academy checkBrookfield7.007-A27 ▼1 · 7-D
27▼2Spencer/Columbus Catholic check6.887-D25 ▲2 · 7-A
28▼4Wittenberg-Birnamwood checkWittenberg6.437-B31 ▼3 · 8-A
29–Peshtigo checkPeshtigo6.348-A20 ▲9 · 5-A
30–Bloomer checkBloomer5.058-B30 – · 8-C
31▲4East Troy checkEast Troy4.558-C in38 ▼7 · Out projected out
32▲2Northland Pines checkEagle River4.228-D in35 ▼3 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼1Neillsville/Granton checkBelow cut line3.83Below cut line dropped36 ▼3 · Out
34▼1Wautoma checkBelow cut lineWautoma3.58Below cut line37 ▼3 · Out
35▼4Columbus checkBelow cut lineColumbus3.47Below cut line dropped32 ▲3 · 8-D projected in
36▲9Parkview/Albany checkBelow cut line2.93Below cut line40 ▼4 · Out
37▲1Kingdom Prep Lutheran checkBelow cut lineWauwatosa2.86Below cut line41 ▼4 · Out
38–Obama SCTE checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee2.75Below cut line34 ▲4 · Out
39▼3Spooner checkBelow cut lineSpooner2.04Below cut line43 ▼4 · Out
40▼3Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau checkBelow cut lineGalesville2.04Below cut line33 ▲7 · Out
41T▼1Dodgeville checkBelow cut lineDodgeville1.29Below cut line29 ▲12 · 8-B projected in
41T▲2Richland Center checkBelow cut lineRichland Center1.29Below cut line42 ▼1 · Out
43T▼2Omro checkBelow cut lineOmro0.71Below cut line44T ▼1 · Out
43T▼2Prescott checkBelow cut linePrescott0.71Below cut line44T ▼1 · Out
45▼2Sturgeon Bay checkBelow cut lineSturgeon Bay0.64Below cut line46T ▼1 · Out
46T–Adams-Friendship checkBelow cut lineAdams0.00Below cut line48T ▼2 · Out
46T–Brodhead/Juda checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line46T – · Out
46T–Clintonville checkBelow cut lineClintonville0.00Below cut line48T ▼2 · Out
46T–River Valley checkBelow cut lineSpring Green0.00Below cut line48T ▼2 · Out
46T–Southwestern/East Dubuque (IL) checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line39 ▲7 · Out
46T–Viroqua checkBelow cut lineViroqua0.00Below cut line48T ▼2 · Out
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 7 (games through Saturday 2026-10-03). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Racine Lutheran (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Marmion Academy, ILW6 (D2)6.0016.507yes
2026-08-28Martin LutherW5.5 (D3)5.5010.507yes
2026-09-04Saint FrancisW5 (D4)5.0027.007yes
2026-09-10Milwaukee Academy of ScienceW4.5 (D5)4.5015.507yes
2026-09-18CudahyW5.5 (D3)5.503.507yes
2026-09-25Catholic Central/Ken Ch LifeW (Seeding Only)4 (D6)4.008.007yes. Replacement win counted instead of the forfeit win over Catholic Central that week (more favorable, regulations 3h).
2026-09-25Catholic CentralW (forfeit)3.5 (D7)———Not counted: this forfeit win was replaced by the more favorable win on 2026-09-25 (regulations 3h).
2026-10-02University School of MilwaukeeW4.5 (D5)4.5023.507yes

Tier 1 AVG = 35.00 ÷ 7 = 5.000. Tier 2 points = 16.50 + 10.50 + 27.00 + 15.50 + 3.50 + 8.00 + 23.50 = 104.50; opponents’ games = 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 + 7 = 49; Tier 2 AVG = 104.50 ÷ 49 = 2.133. Total = 5.000 + 9 × 2.133 = 24.19 (Tier 3 tie-break pending verification).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

WIAA Football Playoff Brackets: Official and Projected | Ewert Sports | Ewert Sports