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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 6 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 2Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 9:31 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

Unresolved tie: Belleville and Cameron and Cumberland and Fall River/Rio and Howards Grove and Laconia and Oconto (rank 27, seed #7). Tied at rank 27, across the #7/#8 seed line: placement waits for WIAA's tie-break (Tier 3, then its own procedure). Their slots are left empty.

1 BonduelES pick: Colby, 90.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 ColbyES 91%5 Chetek-WeyerhaeuserES pick: Kewaunee, 82.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 KewauneeES 83%6 Marathon2 Regis7 tie unresolvedTBD4 Colby3 KewauneeTBDTBDTBD1 Randolph/Cambria-Frie…ES pick: Saint Mary's Springs, 68.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Saint Mary's…ES 68%5 Weyauwega-Fremont3 FennimoreES pick: Fall Creek, 66.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Fall CreekES 67%2 Mondovi7 tie unresolvedTBD4 Saint Mary's Springs6 Fall CreekTBDTBDTBD1 Poynette4 Potosi/CassvilleES pick: Edgar, 85.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 EdgarES 86%ES pick: Cuba City, 55.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Cuba CityES 55%6 LutherES pick: Mineral Point, 52.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Mineral PointES 52%7 Prairie du ChienTBD5 Edgar3 Cuba CityES pick: Mineral Point, 54.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Mineral PointES 55%TBD2 Mineral Point1 Manitowoc LutheranES pick: Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic, 95.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Kenosha St.…ES 96%5 MarshallES pick: Cedar Grove-Belgium, 75.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Cedar Grove-…ES 76%6 PardeevilleES pick: Lomira, 76.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 LomiraES 77%7 CambridgeTBD4 Kenosha St. Joseph Ca…3 Cedar Grove-BelgiumES pick: Lomira, 68.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 LomiraES 69%TBD2 LomiraTBDTBDState semifinalTBDTBDState semifinalTBDTBDState finalRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 6 · Week 2 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 2. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 2. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 1: out Nekoosa (20 → 34), Benton (26 → 34), Saint Mary Catholic (26 → 34), Westby (26 → 34), Auburndale (26 → 38), Barron (26 → 38), Clinton (26 → 38), Horicon/Hustisford (26 → 38), Ladysmith (26 → 38), Lancaster (26 → 38), Living Word Lutheran (26 → 38), Loyal/Greenwood (26 → 38), Markesan (26 → 38), Mishicot (26 → 38), Southern Door (26 → 38), Stanley-Boyd (26 → 38), Unity (26 → 38), Valders (26 → 38). Biggest climbs: Manitowoc Lutheran ▲17, Kewaunee ▲16, Cedar Grove-Belgium ▲14. Biggest drops: Fall Creek ▼20, Weyauwega-Fremont ▼19, Luther ▼19.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲3Bonduel checkBonduel24.251-A2 ▼1 · 1-A
2▲7Poynette checkPoynette23.381-C28 ▼26 · 7-C
3▲17Manitowoc Lutheran checkManitowoc23.131-D4 ▼1 · 1-D
4▲5Randolph/Cambria-Friesland check20.631-B15 ▼11 · 4-D
5▲4Lomira checkLomira19.632-D5 – · 2-B
6▼2Mineral Point checkMineral Point16.002-C13 ▼7 · 4-C
7▼3Mondovi checkMondovi14.882-B1 ▲6 · 1-C
8▲12Regis checkEau Claire14.382-A11 ▼3 · 3-A
9–Cuba City checkCuba City14.133-C12 ▼3 · 3-C
10▲16Kewaunee checkKewaunee14.003-A8 ▲2 · 2-D
11▲9Fennimore checkFennimore13.633-B36 ▼25 · Out projected out
12▲14Cedar Grove-Belgium checkCedar Grove13.253-D10 ▲2 · 3-D
13▼4Colby checkColby12.754-A33 ▼20 · Out projected out
14T▼13Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic checkKenosha12.634-D6 ▲8 · 2-C
14T▲12Saint Mary's Springs checkFond du Lac12.634-B19 ▼5 · 5-B
16▲10Potosi/Cassville check12.384-C17 ▼1 · 5-C
17▲3Marshall checkMarshall11.385-D37 ▼20 · Out projected out
18▼9Chetek-Weyerhaeuser checkChetek11.005-A45 ▼27 · Out projected out
19▲1Edgar checkEdgar10.755-C3 ▲16 · 1-B
20▼19Weyauwega-Fremont checkWeyauwega4.755-B18 ▲2 · 5-D
21T▼20Fall Creek checkFall Creek4.506-B27 ▼6 · 7-A
21T▼17Pardeeville checkPardeeville4.506-D16 ▲5 · 4-A
23T▼19Luther checkOnalaska4.006-C21 ▲2 · 6-B
23T▼14Marathon checkMarathon4.006-A22 ▲1 · 6-A
25▲1Cambridge checkCambridge2.507-D9 ▲16 · 3-B
26–Prairie du Chien checkPrairie du Chien2.257-C30 ▼4 · 8-B
27T▼18Belleville checkBelleville2.00#714 ▲13 · 4-B
27T▼18Cameron checkCameron2.00#744 ▼17 · Out projected out
27T▼1Cumberland checkCumberland2.00#747 ▼20 · Out projected out
27T▼1Fall River/Rio check2.00#725 ▲2 · 7-B
27T▼18Howards Grove checkHowards Grove2.00#743 ▼16 · Out projected out
27T▼1Laconia checkRosendale2.00#738 ▼11 · Out projected out
27T▼18Oconto checkOconto2.00#735 ▼8 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
34T▼8Benton checkBelow cut lineBenton1.75Below cut line dropped24 ▲10 · 6-C projected in
34T▼14Nekoosa checkBelow cut lineNekoosa1.75Below cut line dropped20 ▲14 · 5-A projected in
34T▼8Saint Mary Catholic checkBelow cut lineNeenah1.75Below cut line dropped7 ▲27 · 2-A projected in
34T▼8Westby checkBelow cut lineWestby1.75Below cut line dropped49 ▼15 · Out
38T▼12Auburndale checkBelow cut lineAuburndale0.00Below cut line dropped41 ▼3 · Out
38T▼12Barron checkBelow cut lineBarron0.00Below cut line dropped48 ▼10 · Out
38T▼12Clinton checkBelow cut lineClinton0.00Below cut line dropped42 ▼4 · Out
38T▼12Horicon/Hustisford checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line dropped46 ▼8 · Out
38T▼12Ladysmith checkBelow cut lineLadysmith0.00Below cut line dropped50T ▼12 · Out
38T▼12Lancaster checkBelow cut lineLancaster0.00Below cut line dropped31 ▲7 · 8-A projected in
38T▼12Living Word Lutheran checkBelow cut lineJackson0.00Below cut line dropped32 ▲6 · 8-D projected in
38T▼12Loyal/Greenwood checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line dropped26 ▲12 · 7-D projected in
38T▼12Markesan checkBelow cut lineMarkesan0.00Below cut line dropped34 ▲4 · Out
38T▼12Mishicot checkBelow cut lineMishicot0.00Below cut line dropped50T ▼12 · Out
38T▼12Southern Door checkBelow cut lineBrussels0.00Below cut line dropped40 ▼2 · Out
38T▼12Stanley-Boyd checkBelow cut lineStanley0.00Below cut line dropped39 ▼1 · Out
38T▼12Unity checkBelow cut lineBalsam Lake0.00Below cut line dropped29 ▲9 · 8-C projected in
38T▼12Valders checkBelow cut lineValders0.00Below cut line dropped23 ▲15 · 6-D projected in
—Catholic Central/Ken Ch Life checkBurlington1.75ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 2 (games through Saturday 2026-08-29). 33 of 51 in the field, 26 placed (7 waiting on a tie-break).

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Bonduel (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Wittenberg-BirnamwoodW4.5 (D5)4.504.502yes
2026-08-27ColemanW3.5 (D7)3.504.502yes

Tier 1 AVG = 8.00 ÷ 2 = 4.000. Tier 2 points = 4.50 + 4.50 = 9.00; opponents’ games = 2 + 2 = 4; Tier 2 AVG = 9.00 ÷ 4 = 2.250. Total = 4.000 + 9 × 2.250 = 24.25.

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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