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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 6 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 5Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 10:03 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Bonduel, 97.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BonduelES 97%8 Oconto4 Weyauwega-FremontES pick: Luther, 64.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 LutherES 64%ES pick: Mineral Point, 59.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Mineral PointES 60%6 Potosi/CassvilleES pick: Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic, 61.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Kenosha St.…ES 61%7 CambridgeES pick: Bonduel, 83.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BonduelES 84%5 Luther3 Mineral PointES pick: Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic, 58.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Kenosha St.…ES 58%ES pick: Bonduel, 80.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BonduelES 80%2 Kenosha St. Joseph Ca…ES pick: Mondovi, 94.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MondoviES 94%8 Loyal/GreenwoodES pick: Cuba City, 65.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Cuba CityES 66%5 BentonES pick: Regis, 77.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 RegisES 77%6 Fall CreekES pick: Edgar, 85.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgarES 86%7 Prairie du ChienES pick: Mondovi, 91.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MondoviES 92%4 Cuba City3 RegisES pick: Edgar, 75.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgarES 76%ES pick: Mondovi, 65.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MondoviES 66%2 EdgarES pick: Randolph/Cambria-Friesland, 85.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Randolph/Cam…ES 86%8 Laconia4 Saint Mary's SpringsES pick: Belleville, 61.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 BellevilleES 62%3 PoynetteES pick: Fall River/Rio, 63.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Fall River/R…ES 63%ES pick: Pardeeville, 66.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 PardeevilleES 66%7 Fennimore1 Randolph/Cambria-Frie…ES pick: Belleville, 77.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 BellevilleES 77%6 Fall River/RioES pick: Pardeeville, 79.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 PardeevilleES 80%ES pick: Belleville, 72.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 BellevilleES 73%2 PardeevilleES pick: Manitowoc Lutheran, 95.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Manitowoc Lu…ES 95%8 ValdersES pick: Kewaunee, 82.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 KewauneeES 83%5 MarathonES pick: Lomira, 71.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 LomiraES 71%6 Saint Mary CatholicES pick: Cedar Grove-Belgium, 96.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Cedar Grove-…ES 96%7 MarshallES pick: Manitowoc Lutheran, 54.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Manitowoc Lu…ES 55%4 KewauneeES pick: Lomira, 61.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 LomiraES 61%2 Cedar Grove-BelgiumES pick: Manitowoc Lutheran, 60.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Manitowoc Lu…ES 60%3 Lomira1 BonduelES pick: Mondovi, 68.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MondoviES 69%State semifinal5 BellevilleES pick: Manitowoc Lutheran, 67.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Manitowoc Lu…ES 67%State semifinalES pick: Mondovi, 73.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MondoviES 74%1 Manitowoc LutheranState final · ES pick: MondoviRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 6 · Week 5 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 5. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 5. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 4: in Fall Creek (35 → 22), Valders (42 → 29) · out Chetek-Weyerhaeuser (29 → 35), Colby (30 → 33). Biggest climbs: Fall Creek ▲13, Valders ▲13, Marathon ▲9. Biggest drops: Potosi/Cassville ▼7, Saint Mary Catholic ▼6, Poynette ▼5.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Bonduel checkBonduel22.761-A2 ▼1 · 1-A
2▲2Manitowoc Lutheran checkManitowoc21.921-D4 ▼2 · 1-D
3▼1Randolph/Cambria-Friesland check19.741-C15 ▼12 · 4-D
4▼1Mondovi checkMondovi18.261-B1 ▲3 · 1-C
5▲7Cedar Grove-Belgium checkCedar Grove17.882-D10 ▼5 · 3-D
6▲1Edgar checkEdgar17.362-B3 ▲3 · 1-B
7▲7Pardeeville checkPardeeville17.062-C16 ▼9 · 4-A
8▲3Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic checkKenosha17.002-A6 ▲2 · 2-C
9▼4Regis checkEau Claire16.803-B11 ▼2 · 3-A
10▼1Lomira checkLomira15.323-D5 ▲5 · 2-B
11▼5Poynette checkPoynette14.543-C28 ▼17 · 7-C
12▼4Mineral Point checkMineral Point14.043-A13 ▼1 · 4-C
13▼3Saint Mary's Springs checkFond du Lac13.504-C19 ▼6 · 5-B
14▼1Kewaunee checkKewaunee13.444-D8 ▲6 · 2-D
15▲6Cuba City checkCuba City13.204-B12 ▲3 · 3-C
16–Weyauwega-Fremont checkWeyauwega12.164-A18 ▼2 · 5-D
17▲2Benton checkBenton12.095-B24 ▼7 · 6-C
18▲9Marathon checkMarathon11.385-D22 ▼4 · 6-A
19▼1Luther checkOnalaska11.325-A21 ▼2 · 6-B
20–Belleville checkBelleville10.945-C14 ▲6 · 4-B
21▼6Saint Mary Catholic checkNeenah10.856-D7 ▲14 · 2-A
22▲13Fall Creek checkFall Creek9.446-B in27 ▼5 · 7-A
23▲1Fall River/Rio check9.246-C25 ▼2 · 7-B
24▼7Potosi/Cassville check9.146-A17 ▲7 · 5-C
25–Marshall checkMarshall8.767-D37 ▼12 · Out projected out
26▼4Fennimore checkFennimore7.887-C36 ▼10 · Out projected out
27▲1Cambridge checkCambridge7.107-A9 ▲18 · 3-B
28▼5Prairie du Chien checkPrairie du Chien7.027-B30 ▼2 · 8-B
29▲13Valders checkValders6.858-D in23 ▲6 · 6-D
30▼4Laconia checkRosendale5.948-C38 ▼8 · Out projected out
31–Oconto checkOconto5.928-A35 ▼4 · Out projected out
32–Loyal/Greenwood check5.468-B26 ▲6 · 7-D
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼3Colby checkBelow cut lineColby5.10Below cut line dropped33 – · Out
34▲8Living Word Lutheran checkBelow cut lineJackson3.96Below cut line32 ▲2 · 8-D projected in
35▼6Chetek-Weyerhaeuser checkBelow cut lineChetek3.68Below cut line dropped45 ▼10 · Out
36▲4Nekoosa checkBelow cut lineNekoosa3.22Below cut line20 ▲16 · 5-A projected in
37T▼1Cameron checkBelow cut lineCameron3.22Below cut line44 ▼7 · Out
37T▼1Cumberland checkBelow cut lineCumberland3.22Below cut line47 ▼10 · Out
39▼5Unity checkBelow cut lineBalsam Lake3.04Below cut line29 ▲10 · 8-C projected in
40▼7Southern Door checkBelow cut lineBrussels2.80Below cut line40 – · Out
41▲1Lancaster checkBelow cut lineLancaster2.52Below cut line31 ▲10 · 8-A projected in
42–Barron checkBelow cut lineBarron2.34Below cut line48 ▼6 · Out
43▼5Howards Grove checkBelow cut lineHowards Grove2.30Below cut line43 – · Out
44▼2Auburndale checkBelow cut lineAuburndale1.96Below cut line41 ▲3 · Out
45▼5Westby checkBelow cut lineWestby1.60Below cut line49 ▼4 · Out
46▼8Markesan checkBelow cut lineMarkesan0.80Below cut line34 ▲12 · Out
47T▼5Clinton checkBelow cut lineClinton0.00Below cut line42 ▲5 · Out
47T▼5Horicon/Hustisford checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line46 ▲1 · Out
47T▼5Ladysmith checkBelow cut lineLadysmith0.00Below cut line50T ▼3 · Out
47T▼5Mishicot checkBelow cut lineMishicot0.00Below cut line50T ▼3 · Out
47T▼5Stanley-Boyd checkBelow cut lineStanley0.00Below cut line39 ▲8 · Out
—Catholic Central/Ken Ch Life checkBurlington6.46ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 5 (games through Saturday 2026-09-19). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Bonduel (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Wittenberg-BirnamwoodW4.5 (D5)4.509.005yes
2026-08-27ColemanW3.5 (D7)3.5012.505yes
2026-09-04KewauneeW4 (D6)4.0015.005yes
2026-09-11MarinetteW5 (D4)5.005.005yes
2026-09-18Oconto FallsW5 (D4)5.009.505yes

Tier 1 AVG = 22.00 ÷ 5 = 4.400. Tier 2 points = 9.00 + 12.50 + 15.00 + 5.00 + 9.50 = 51.00; opponents’ games = 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 25; Tier 2 AVG = 51.00 ÷ 25 = 2.040. Total = 4.400 + 9 × 2.040 = 22.76 (Tier 3 tie-break pending verification).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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