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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 6 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 6Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 8:49 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Manitowoc Lutheran, 98.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Manitowoc Lu…ES 98%8 MarshallES pick: Kewaunee, 81.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 KewauneeES 82%5 Saint Mary's SpringsES pick: Belleville, 66.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 BellevilleES 66%6 Luther2 Randolph/Cambria-Frie…ES pick: Potosi/Cassville, 63.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.7 Potosi/Cassv…ES 63%ES pick: Manitowoc Lutheran, 54.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Manitowoc Lu…ES 55%4 KewauneeES pick: Belleville, 70.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 BellevilleES 70%7 Potosi/CassvilleES pick: Manitowoc Lutheran, 70.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Manitowoc Lu…ES 71%3 BellevilleES pick: Edgar, 95.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 EdgarES 96%8 ColbyES pick: Mineral Point, 54.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Mineral PointES 55%5 Cuba CityES pick: Weyauwega-Fremont, 72.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Weyauwega-Fr…ES 73%6 ValdersES pick: Regis, 77.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 RegisES 77%7 Fall CreekES pick: Edgar, 86.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 EdgarES 87%4 Mineral Point3 Weyauwega-FremontES pick: Regis, 84.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 RegisES 84%ES pick: Edgar, 75.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 EdgarES 76%2 RegisES pick: Bonduel, 94.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BonduelES 94%8 FennimoreES pick: Saint Mary Catholic, 90.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Saint Mary C…ES 90%5 Fall River/Rio3 BentonES pick: Prairie du Chien, 60.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Prairie du C…ES 61%ES pick: Mondovi, 93.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 MondoviES 93%7 MarathonES pick: Bonduel, 79.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BonduelES 80%4 Saint Mary Catholic6 Prairie du ChienES pick: Mondovi, 90.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 MondoviES 91%1 BonduelES pick: Mondovi, 65.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 MondoviES 65%ES pick: Cedar Grove-Belgium, 99.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Cedar Grove-…ES 99%8 Living Word LutheranES pick: Pardeeville, 88.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 PardeevilleES 89%5 PoynetteES pick: Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic, 61.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Kenosha St.…ES 61%6 CambridgeES pick: Lomira, 96.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 LomiraES 96%7 OcontoES pick: Cedar Grove-Belgium, 75.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Cedar Grove-…ES 76%4 Pardeeville3 Kenosha St. Joseph Ca…ES pick: Lomira, 71.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 LomiraES 71%1 Cedar Grove-BelgiumES pick: Lomira, 61.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 LomiraES 61%1 Manitowoc LutheranES pick: Edgar, 63.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 EdgarES 63%State semifinalES pick: Mondovi, 78.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 MondoviES 78%2 LomiraState semifinal1 EdgarES pick: Mondovi, 62.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 MondoviES 62%State final · ES pick: MondoviRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 6 · Week 6 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 6. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 6. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 5: in Living Word Lutheran (34 → 30), Colby (33 → 32) · out Laconia (30 → 33), Loyal/Greenwood (32 → 34). Biggest climbs: Belleville ▲10, Valders ▲8, Saint Mary Catholic ▲7. Biggest drops: Pardeeville ▼9, Poynette ▼7, Marathon ▼7.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Bonduel checkBonduel23.791-C2 ▼1 · 1-A
2–Manitowoc Lutheran checkManitowoc22.291-A4 ▼2 · 1-D
3▲3Edgar checkEdgar18.831-B3 – · 1-B
4▲1Cedar Grove-Belgium checkCedar Grove18.501-D10 ▼6 · 3-D
5▼2Randolph/Cambria-Friesland check18.502-A15 ▼10 · 4-D
6▲4Lomira checkLomira18.082-D5 ▲1 · 2-B
7▲2Regis checkEau Claire18.042-B11 ▼4 · 3-A
8▼4Mondovi checkMondovi17.922-C1 ▲7 · 1-C
9▼1Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic checkKenosha17.543-D6 ▲3 · 2-C
10▲10Belleville checkBelleville15.713-A14 ▼4 · 4-B
11▲5Weyauwega-Fremont checkWeyauwega14.633-B18 ▼7 · 5-D
12▲5Benton checkBenton14.163-C24 ▼12 · 6-C
13▲1Kewaunee checkKewaunee14.044-A8 ▲5 · 2-D
14▲7Saint Mary Catholic checkNeenah13.854-C7 ▲7 · 2-A
15▼3Mineral Point checkMineral Point13.134-B13 ▲2 · 4-C
16▼9Pardeeville checkPardeeville13.084-D16 – · 4-A
17▼2Cuba City checkCuba City11.635-B12 ▲5 · 3-C
18▼7Poynette checkPoynette11.425-D28 ▼10 · 7-C
19▼6Saint Mary's Springs checkFond du Lac11.005-A19 – · 5-B
20▲3Fall River/Rio check10.835-C25 ▼5 · 7-B
21▲8Valders checkValders10.706-B23 ▼2 · 6-D
22▼3Luther checkOnalaska10.586-A21 ▲1 · 6-B
23▲4Cambridge checkCambridge9.136-D9 ▲14 · 3-B
24▲4Prairie du Chien checkPrairie du Chien8.386-C30 ▼6 · 8-B
25▼7Marathon checkMarathon8.337-C22 ▲3 · 6-A
26▼2Potosi/Cassville check8.297-A17 ▲9 · 5-C
27▼5Fall Creek checkFall Creek8.047-B27 – · 7-A
28▲3Oconto checkOconto6.547-D35 ▼7 · Out projected out
29▼4Marshall checkMarshall6.388-A37 ▼8 · Out projected out
30▲4Living Word Lutheran checkJackson6.138-D in32 ▼2 · 8-D
31▼5Fennimore checkFennimore5.798-C36 ▼5 · Out projected out
32▲1Colby checkColby5.758-B in33 ▼1 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼3Laconia checkBelow cut lineRosendale5.50Below cut line dropped38 ▼5 · Out
34▼2Loyal/Greenwood checkBelow cut line4.88Below cut line dropped26 ▲8 · 7-D projected in
35▲4Unity checkBelow cut lineBalsam Lake4.67Below cut line29 ▲6 · 8-C projected in
36–Nekoosa checkBelow cut lineNekoosa4.42Below cut line20 ▲16 · 5-A projected in
37–Cameron checkBelow cut lineCameron4.13Below cut line44 ▼7 · Out
38▲8Markesan checkBelow cut lineMarkesan3.96Below cut line34 ▲4 · Out
39▲4Howards Grove checkBelow cut lineHowards Grove3.52Below cut line43 ▼4 · Out
40▼5Chetek-Weyerhaeuser checkBelow cut lineChetek2.67Below cut line45 ▼5 · Out
41–Lancaster checkBelow cut lineLancaster2.63Below cut line31 ▲10 · 8-A projected in
42▼5Cumberland checkBelow cut lineCumberland2.46Below cut line47 ▼5 · Out
43▼3Southern Door checkBelow cut lineBrussels2.08Below cut line40 ▲3 · Out
44▼2Barron checkBelow cut lineBarron1.75Below cut line48 ▼4 · Out
45▲2Stanley-Boyd checkBelow cut lineStanley1.54Below cut line39 ▲6 · Out
46▼2Auburndale checkBelow cut lineAuburndale1.46Below cut line41 ▲5 · Out
47▼2Westby checkBelow cut lineWestby1.33Below cut line49 ▼2 · Out
48T▼1Clinton checkBelow cut lineClinton0.00Below cut line42 ▲6 · Out
48T▼1Horicon/Hustisford checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line46 ▲2 · Out
48T▼1Ladysmith checkBelow cut lineLadysmith0.00Below cut line50T ▼2 · Out
48T▼1Mishicot checkBelow cut lineMishicot0.00Below cut line50T ▼2 · Out
—Catholic Central/Ken Ch Life checkBurlington4.71ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 6 (games through Saturday 2026-09-26). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Bonduel (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Wittenberg-BirnamwoodW4.5 (D5)4.509.006yes
2026-08-27ColemanW3.5 (D7)3.5017.006yes
2026-09-04KewauneeW4 (D6)4.0019.006yes
2026-09-11MarinetteW5 (D4)5.005.006yes
2026-09-18Oconto FallsW5 (D4)5.0014.006yes
2026-09-25PeshtigoW4.5 (D5)4.5013.506yes

Tier 1 AVG = 26.50 ÷ 6 = 4.417. Tier 2 points = 9.00 + 17.00 + 19.00 + 5.00 + 14.00 + 13.50 = 77.50; opponents’ games = 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 = 36; Tier 2 AVG = 77.50 ÷ 36 = 2.153. Total = 4.417 + 9 × 2.153 = 23.79 (Tier 3 tie-break pending verification).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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