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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 6 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 9Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 10:34 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Bonduel, 91.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BonduelES 92%8 LancasterES pick: Pardeeville, 70.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 PardeevilleES 71%5 NekoosaES pick: Regis, 75.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 RegisES 76%6 MarathonES pick: Saint Mary Catholic, 66.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Saint Mary C…ES 66%7 Fall CreekES pick: Bonduel, 90.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BonduelES 90%4 PardeevilleES pick: Regis, 59.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 RegisES 60%2 Saint Mary CatholicES pick: Bonduel, 69.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BonduelES 70%3 RegisES pick: Edgar, 85.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 EdgarES 86%8 Prairie du ChienES pick: Belleville, 69.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 BellevilleES 69%5 Saint Mary's SpringsES pick: Cambridge, 53.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 CambridgeES 53%6 LutherES pick: Lomira, 95.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 LomiraES 95%7 Fall River/RioES pick: Edgar, 80.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 EdgarES 81%4 Belleville3 CambridgeES pick: Lomira, 76.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 LomiraES 77%ES pick: Edgar, 72.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 EdgarES 72%2 LomiraES pick: Mondovi, 97.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MondoviES 97%8 UnityES pick: Mineral Point, 59.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Mineral PointES 60%5 Potosi/CassvilleES pick: Cuba City, 65.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Cuba CityES 66%6 BentonES pick: Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic, 94.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Kenosha St.…ES 95%7 PoynetteES pick: Mondovi, 91.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MondoviES 91%4 Mineral Point3 Cuba CityES pick: Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic, 59.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Kenosha St.…ES 59%ES pick: Mondovi, 89.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MondoviES 90%2 Kenosha St. Joseph Ca…ES pick: Manitowoc Lutheran, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Manitowoc Lu…ES 100%8 Living Word LutheranES pick: Randolph/Cambria-Friesland, 50.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Randolph/Cam…ES 50%5 Weyauwega-FremontES pick: Cedar Grove-Belgium, 89.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Cedar Grove-…ES 89%6 ValdersES pick: Kewaunee, 84.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 KewauneeES 85%7 Loyal/GreenwoodES pick: Manitowoc Lutheran, 90.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Manitowoc Lu…ES 91%4 Randolph/Cambria-Frie…3 Cedar Grove-BelgiumES pick: Kewaunee, 73.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 KewauneeES 73%ES pick: Manitowoc Lutheran, 54.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Manitowoc Lu…ES 55%2 Kewaunee1 BonduelES pick: Edgar, 57.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 EdgarES 58%State semifinalES pick: Mondovi, 73.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MondoviES 74%1 Manitowoc LutheranState semifinal1 EdgarES pick: Mondovi, 62.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MondoviES 62%State final · ES pick: MondoviRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 6 · Week 9 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 9. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 9. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 8: in Lancaster (39 → 31), Living Word Lutheran (34 → 32) · out Colby (30 → 33), Markesan (31 → 34). Biggest climbs: Lancaster ▲8, Nekoosa ▲7, Saint Mary Catholic ▲6. Biggest drops: Mineral Point ▼7, Randolph/Cambria-Friesland ▼7, Belleville ▼3.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲2Mondovi checkMondovi23.891-C1 – · 1-C
2▼1Bonduel checkBonduel21.611-A2 – · 1-A
3▲1Edgar checkEdgar20.941-B3 – · 1-B
4▼2Manitowoc Lutheran checkManitowoc20.561-D4 – · 1-D
5–Lomira checkLomira20.332-B5 – · 2-B
6▲1Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic checkKenosha17.732-C6 – · 2-C
7▲6Saint Mary Catholic checkNeenah17.452-A7 – · 2-A
8▲4Kewaunee checkKewaunee16.562-D8 – · 2-D
9▲1Cambridge checkCambridge15.893-B9 – · 3-B
10▼1Cedar Grove-Belgium checkCedar Grove15.723-D10 – · 3-D
11▲3Regis checkEau Claire15.443-A11 – · 3-A
12▲3Cuba City checkCuba City15.113-C12 – · 3-C
13▼7Mineral Point checkMineral Point14.724-C13 – · 4-C
14▼3Belleville checkBelleville14.724-B14 – · 4-B
15▼7Randolph/Cambria-Friesland check14.584-D15 – · 4-D
16▲1Pardeeville checkPardeeville14.334-A16 – · 4-A
17▼1Potosi/Cassville check13.185-C17 – · 5-C
18▲3Weyauwega-Fremont checkWeyauwega12.115-D18 – · 5-D
19–Saint Mary's Springs checkFond du Lac11.675-B19 – · 5-B
20▲7Nekoosa checkNekoosa11.285-A20 – · 5-A
21▼3Luther checkOnalaska11.116-B21 – · 6-B
22▲2Marathon checkMarathon11.006-A22 – · 6-A
23▼3Valders checkValders10.196-D23 – · 6-D
24▼2Benton checkBenton9.566-C24 – · 6-C
25▼2Fall River/Rio check9.117-B25 – · 7-B
26▼1Loyal/Greenwood check9.007-D26 – · 7-D
27▲2Fall Creek checkFall Creek8.897-A27 – · 7-A
28▼2Poynette checkPoynette8.727-C28 – · 7-C
29▲3Unity checkBalsam Lake8.008-C29 – · 8-C
30▼2Prairie du Chien checkPrairie du Chien7.008-B30 – · 8-B
31▲8Lancaster checkLancaster6.448-A in31 – · 8-A
32▲2Living Word Lutheran checkJackson5.698-D in32 – · 8-D
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼3Colby checkBelow cut lineColby5.39Below cut line dropped33 – · Out
34▼3Markesan checkBelow cut lineMarkesan5.17Below cut line dropped34 – · Out
35▼2Oconto checkBelow cut lineOconto5.11Below cut line35 – · Out
36▼1Fennimore checkBelow cut lineFennimore4.17Below cut line36 – · Out
37▼1Marshall checkBelow cut lineMarshall4.11Below cut line37 – · Out
38▼1Laconia checkBelow cut lineRosendale3.39Below cut line38 – · Out
39▼1Stanley-Boyd checkBelow cut lineStanley3.33Below cut line39 – · Out
40▲3Southern Door checkBelow cut lineBrussels3.17Below cut line40 – · Out
41–Auburndale checkBelow cut lineAuburndale3.17Below cut line41 – · Out
42▲4Clinton checkBelow cut lineClinton3.11Below cut line42 – · Out
43▼3Howards Grove checkBelow cut lineHowards Grove2.80Below cut line43 – · Out
44▼2Cameron checkBelow cut lineCameron2.72Below cut line44 – · Out
45▼1Chetek-Weyerhaeuser checkBelow cut lineChetek1.78Below cut line45 – · Out
46▼1Horicon/Hustisford checkBelow cut line1.61Below cut line46 – · Out
47–Cumberland checkBelow cut lineCumberland1.39Below cut line47 – · Out
48–Barron checkBelow cut lineBarron0.94Below cut line48 – · Out
49–Westby checkBelow cut lineWestby0.89Below cut line49 – · Out
50T–Ladysmith checkBelow cut lineLadysmith0.00Below cut line50T – · Out
50T–Mishicot checkBelow cut lineMishicot0.00Below cut line50T – · Out
—Catholic Central/Ken Ch Life checkBurlington3.23ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 9 (games dated Friday 2026-10-16 or earlier; WIAA deadline: completion before 11:59 p.m. Central; stored dates do not establish finish times). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Mondovi (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Gale-Ettrick-TrempealeauW4.5 (D5)4.5013.009yes
2026-08-28OsceolaW5 (D4)5.0039.009yes
2026-09-04Fall CreekW4 (D6)4.0021.009yes
2026-09-11EdgarL4 (D6)0.00—9yes
2026-09-17Stanley-BoydW4 (D6)4.008.509yes
2026-09-25Neillsville/GrantonW4.5 (D5)4.5011.009yes
2026-10-02RegisW4 (D6)4.0029.009yes
2026-10-09Elk MoundW4.5 (D5)4.5025.509yes
2026-10-16Durand-ArkansawW4.5 (D5)4.5033.009yes

Tier 1 AVG = 35.00 ÷ 9 = 3.889. Tier 2 points = 13.00 + 39.00 + 21.00 + 8.50 + 11.00 + 29.00 + 25.50 + 33.00 = 180.00; opponents’ games = 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 81; Tier 2 AVG = 180.00 ÷ 81 = 2.222. Total = 3.889 + 9 × 2.222 = 23.89 (Tier 3 tie-break 8.17).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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