ES projected final field · Football Division 7 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection of the final fieldEwert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 9:23 AM CDT

No future qualifying games remain · 0 picks · partial: unresolved data can change the field · UNOFFICIAL.

Division 7 · Projected final field and cut line

Ordered by our projected final standings if the remaining ES picks win. Records, totals, seeds and the cut line use that same scenario; arrows compare with reported Week 9 standings. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank	+/−	Team	City	W-L	Total	Tier 1 AVG	Tier 2 AVG	Tier 2 Wins	Projected Seed
1	–	Cochrane-Fountain City check	Fountain City	9-0	17.06	3.50	1.51	34	1-A
2	–	Ithaca/Weston check		8-0	16.81	3.50	1.48	30	1-C
3	–	Coleman check	Coleman	7-2	15.67	3.06	1.40	27	1-D
4	–	Glenwood City check	Glenwood City	8-1	15.22	3.33	1.32	28	1-B
5	–	Lourdes Academy check	Oshkosh	8-1	14.89	3.44	1.27	27	2-B
6	–	Shiocton check	Shiocton	8-1	14.67	3.61	1.23	23	2-D
7	–	River Ridge check	Patch Grove	8-1	14.42	3.17	1.25	27	2-A
8	–	Iowa-Grant check	Livingston	7-2	13.35	2.89	1.16	25	2-C
9	–	Pepin/Alma check		8-1	12.61	3.17	1.05	24	3-A
10	–	Hilbert check	Hilbert	6-3	12.39	2.72	1.07	21	3-B
11	–	Spring Valley check	Spring Valley	7-2	11.89	2.83	1.01	22	3-C
12	–	Boyceville check	Boyceville	7-2	11.83	2.83	1.00	22	3-D
13	–	Crivitz check	Crivitz	6-3	11.44	2.72	0.97	18	4-D
14	–	Cashton check	Cashton	8-1	10.86	3.11	0.86	19	4-C
15	–	Cadott check	Cadott	6-3	10.72	2.61	0.90	19	4-A
16	–	Webster check	Webster	7-2	10.06	2.89	0.80	17	4-B
17	–	Melrose-Mindoro check	Melrose	7-2	9.06	2.72	0.70	16	5-B
18	–	Royall check	Elroy	5-4	6.84	2.00	0.54	12	5-A
19	–	Black Hawk/Warren, IL check		5-4	6.56	2.06	0.50	11	5-C
20	–	Pacelli check	Stevens Point	5-4	6.44	2.33	0.46	10	5-D
21	–	Abbotsford check	Abbotsford	4-5	5.67	1.61	0.45	9	6-B
22	–	McDonell Central Catholic check	Chippewa Falls	4-5	5.44	1.72	0.41	9	6-D
23	–	Whitehall check	Whitehall	5-4	5.22	2.06	0.35	8	6-C
24	–	Bangor check	Bangor	4-5	5.21	1.56	0.41	9	6-A
25	–	Riverdale check	Muscoda	4-5	5.14	1.56	0.40	9	7-C
26	–	Elmwood/Plum City check		3-6	4.28	1.17	0.35	8	7-A
27	–	Osseo-Fairchild check	Osseo	3-6	4.06	1.17	0.32	7	7-D
28	–	Pecatonica/Argyle check		4-5	3.75	1.56	0.24	5	7-B
29	–	Brookwood check	Ontario	3-6	3.70	1.28	0.27	6	8-B
30	–	Hillsboro check	Hillsboro	4-5	3.64	1.56	0.23	5	8-A
31	–	Manawa check	Manawa	3-6	3.61	1.39	0.25	5	8-D
32	–	Waterloo check	Waterloo	3-6	3.17	1.39	0.20	4	8-C
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33	–	Colfax checkBelow cut line	Colfax	2-7	2.72	0.78	0.22	5	Below cut line
34	–	Augusta checkBelow cut line	Augusta	3-6	2.33	1.17	0.13	3	Below cut line
35	–	Reedsville checkBelow cut line	Reedsville	2-7	1.78	0.89	0.10	2	Below cut line
36	–	Necedah checkBelow cut line	Necedah	1-8	1.68	0.39	0.14	3	Below cut line
37	–	Roncalli checkBelow cut line	Manitowoc	2-7	1.56	1.00	0.06	1	Below cut line
38	–	Johnson Creek checkBelow cut line	Johnson Creek	3-6	1.56	1.17	0.04	1	Below cut line
39	–	Eleva-Strum checkBelow cut line	Strum	2-7	1.17	0.78	0.04	1	Below cut line
40	–	New Lisbon checkBelow cut line	New Lisbon	1-8	0.78	0.39	0.04	1	Below cut line
41	–	Crandon checkBelow cut line	Crandon	1-8	0.50	0.50	0.00	0	Below cut line
42	–	Wauzeka-Steuben/Seneca checkBelow cut line		1-7	0.44	0.44	0.00	0	Below cut line
43T	–	Blair-Taylor checkBelow cut line	Blair	1-8	0.39	0.39	0.00	0	Below cut line
43T	–	Deerfield checkBelow cut line	Deerfield	1-8	0.39	0.39	0.00	0	Below cut line
43T	–	Pittsville checkBelow cut line	Pittsville	1-8	0.39	0.39	0.00	0	Below cut line
46T	–	Boscobel checkBelow cut line	Boscobel	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
46T	–	Dodgeland checkBelow cut line	Juneau	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
46T	–	Independence/Gilmanton checkBelow cut line		0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
—		Catholic Central check	Burlington	0-8	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Excluded
—		Iola-Scandinavia check	Iola	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Excluded
—		Kenosha Christian Life check	Kenosha	0-6	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Excluded
—		Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified		0-0	—	—	—	—	Unverified
—		Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified		0-0	—	—	—	—	Unverified

Remaining-game assumptions

0 ES picks; 0 future games without a qualified pick; 1 other games awaiting a confirmed result or schedule; 1 held games. Neither the field nor the pairings are official.

The same current ES pick is used for both teams, then every opponent's points and games are recomputed through Friday 2026-10-16. No predicted score or result is saved. Forecasts remain fixed for this scenario; they refresh after actual results through the normal rating update.

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. This final-field scenario adds the qualified ES picks above to actual results; it does not predict a completed result or the likelihood of this exact combined bracket. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the actual results plus hypothetical winners, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 9 (games dated Friday 2026-10-16 or earlier; WIAA deadline: completion before 11:59 p.m. Central; stored dates do not establish finish times). 32 of 48 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Abbotsford (rank 21, seed 6)

Date	Opponent	Result	Opponent’s value	Tier 1 earned	Opp. Tier 1 points	Opp. games	Counts?
2026-08-21	Markesan	W	4 (D6)	4.00	12.00	9	yes
2026-08-28	Colby	L	4 (D6)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-09-04	Regis	L	4 (D6)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-09-11	Loyal/Greenwood	L	4 (D6)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-09-17	Pacelli	W	3.5 (D7)	3.50	21.00	9	yes
2026-09-25	Iola-Scandinavia	W (forfeit)	3.5 (D7)	3.50	0.00	9	yes. Forfeit win: the loser's full value.
2026-10-02	Auburndale	L	4 (D6)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-10-09	Pittsville	W	3.5 (D7)	3.50	3.50	9	yes
2026-10-16	Edgar	L	4 (D6)	0.00	—	9	yes

Tier 1 AVG = 14.50 ÷ 9 = 1.611. Tier 2 points = 12.00 + 21.00 + 0.00 + 3.50 = 36.50; opponents’ games = 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 81; Tier 2 AVG = 36.50 ÷ 81 = 0.451. Total = 1.611 + 9 × 0.451 = 5.67 (Tier 3 tie-break 1.99).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.