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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 7 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 3Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 7:51 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

Unresolved ties: Black Hawk/Warren, IL and Cadott (rank 24, seed #6); Brookwood and Manawa and McDonell Central Catholic and Waterloo (rank 28, seed #7). Tied at rank 24, across the #6/#7 seed line: placement waits for WIAA's tie-break (Tier 3, then its own procedure). Their slots are left empty.

ES pick: Hilbert, 96.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HilbertES 97%8 RoncalliES pick: Pecatonica/Argyle, 63.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Pecatonica/A…ES 64%5 RiverdaleES pick: Lourdes Academy, 93.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Lourdes Acad.ES 93%6 Royall2 Coleman7 tie unresolvedES pick: Hilbert, 93.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HilbertES 93%4 Pecatonica/Argyle3 Lourdes Acad.TBD1 HilbertTBD1 Cochrane-Fountain City4 Elmwood/Plum CityES pick: Melrose-Mindoro, 88.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Melrose-Mind…ES 89%3 Spring Valley6 tie unresolvedES pick: Glenwood City, 97.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Glenwood CityES 97%7 ColfaxTBD5 Melrose-MindoroTBD2 Glenwood CityTBDTBD1 Iowa-GrantES pick: River Ridge, 88.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 River RidgeES 89%5 CashtonES pick: Pepin/Alma, 93.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Pepin/AlmaES 93%6 BangorES pick: Ithaca/Weston, 64.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Ithaca/WestonES 64%7 WhitehallTBD4 River RidgeES pick: Pepin/Alma, 78.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Pepin/AlmaES 78%2 Ithaca/WestonTBD3 Pepin/AlmaES pick: Shiocton, 94.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ShioctonES 94%8 Reedsville4 PacelliES pick: Crivitz, 83.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 CrivitzES 83%ES pick: Boyceville, 90.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 BoycevilleES 90%6 Abbotsford2 Webster7 tie unresolvedES pick: Shiocton, 50.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ShioctonES 51%5 Crivitz3 BoycevilleTBD1 ShioctonTBDTBDTBDState semifinalTBDTBDState semifinalTBDTBDState finalRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 7 · Week 3 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 3. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 3. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 2: in Bangor (34 → 23), Manawa (34 → 28), Reedsville (34 → 32) · out Hillsboro (29 → 34), Johnson Creek (29 → 34), Osseo-Fairchild (29 → 34). Biggest climbs: Iowa-Grant ▲15, Elmwood/Plum City ▲14, Coleman ▲13. Biggest drops: Riverdale ▼13, Pecatonica/Argyle ▼10, Royall ▼10.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲2Shiocton checkShiocton18.501-D6 ▼5 · 2-D
2▼1Cochrane-Fountain City checkFountain City15.501-B1 ▲1 · 1-A
3▲8Hilbert checkHilbert15.171-A10 ▼7 · 3-B
4▲15Iowa-Grant checkLivingston14.171-C8 ▼4 · 2-C
5▼3Ithaca/Weston check14.002-C2 ▲3 · 1-C
6▲13Coleman checkColeman13.002-A3 ▲3 · 1-D
7▲6Glenwood City checkGlenwood City12.002-B4 ▲3 · 1-B
8–Webster checkWebster11.172-D16 ▼8 · 4-B
9▲6Lourdes Academy checkOshkosh11.173-A5 ▲4 · 2-B
10–Spring Valley checkSpring Valley11.003-B11 ▼1 · 3-C
11▼6Boyceville checkBoyceville10.673-D12 ▼1 · 3-D
12▼4Pepin/Alma check10.503-C9 ▲3 · 3-A
13▼6River Ridge checkPatch Grove10.504-C7 ▲6 · 2-A
14▼10Pecatonica/Argyle check10.334-A28 ▼14 · 7-B
15▲14Elmwood/Plum City check9.334-B26 ▼11 · 7-A
16▼2Pacelli checkStevens Point9.004-D20 ▼4 · 5-D
17▼1Cashton checkCashton8.565-C14 ▲3 · 4-C
18▼2Melrose-Mindoro checkMelrose7.005-B17 ▲1 · 5-B
19▼13Riverdale checkMuscoda6.835-A25 ▼6 · 7-C
20▼1Crivitz checkCrivitz6.005-D13 ▲7 · 4-D
21▼10Royall checkElroy6.006-A18 ▲3 · 5-A
22▲4Abbotsford checkAbbotsford5.336-D21 ▲1 · 6-B
23▲11Bangor checkBangor4.676-C in24 ▼1 · 6-A
24T▼5Black Hawk/Warren, IL check2.67#619 ▲5 · 5-C
24T▲2Cadott checkCadott2.67#615 ▲9 · 4-A
26T▼10Colfax checkColfax2.337-B33 ▼7 · Out projected out
26T▲3Whitehall checkWhitehall2.337-C23 ▲3 · 6-C
28T▼9Brookwood checkOntario1.50#729 ▼1 · 8-B
28T▲6Manawa checkManawa1.50#7 in31 ▼3 · 8-D
28T▼9McDonell Central Catholic checkChippewa Falls1.50#722 ▲6 · 6-D
28T▼9Waterloo checkWaterloo1.50#732 ▼4 · 8-C
32T▲2Reedsville checkReedsville1.338-D in35 ▼3 · Out projected out
32T▼6Roncalli checkManitowoc1.338-A37 ▼5 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
34T–Deerfield checkBelow cut lineDeerfield1.17Below cut line43T ▼9 · Out
34T▼5Hillsboro checkBelow cut lineHillsboro1.17Below cut line dropped30 ▲4 · 8-A projected in
34T▼5Johnson Creek checkBelow cut lineJohnson Creek1.17Below cut line dropped38 ▼4 · Out
34T▼5Osseo-Fairchild checkBelow cut lineOsseo1.17Below cut line dropped27 ▲7 · 7-D projected in
38T▼4Augusta checkBelow cut lineAugusta0.00Below cut line34 ▲4 · Out
38T▼4Blair-Taylor checkBelow cut lineBlair0.00Below cut line43T ▼5 · Out
38T▼4Boscobel checkBelow cut lineBoscobel0.00Below cut line46T ▼8 · Out
38T▼4Crandon checkBelow cut lineCrandon0.00Below cut line41 ▼3 · Out
38T▼4Dodgeland checkBelow cut lineJuneau0.00Below cut line46T ▼8 · Out
38T▼4Eleva-Strum checkBelow cut lineStrum0.00Below cut line39 ▼1 · Out
38T▼4Independence/Gilmanton checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line46T ▼8 · Out
38T▼4Necedah checkBelow cut lineNecedah0.00Below cut line36 ▲2 · Out
38T▼4New Lisbon checkBelow cut lineNew Lisbon0.00Below cut line40 ▼2 · Out
38T▼4Pittsville checkBelow cut linePittsville0.00Below cut line43T ▼5 · Out
38T▼4Wauzeka-Steuben/Seneca checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line42 ▼4 · Out
—Catholic Central checkBurlington0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Iola-Scandinavia checkIola0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Kenosha Christian Life checkKenosha0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 3 (games through Saturday 2026-09-05). 33 of 48 in the field, 27 placed (6 waiting on a tie-break).

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Abbotsford (rank 22, seed 6)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21MarkesanW4 (D6)4.004.003yes
2026-08-28ColbyL4 (D6)0.00—3yes
2026-09-04RegisL4 (D6)0.00—3yes

Tier 1 AVG = 4.00 ÷ 3 = 1.333. Tier 2 points = 4.00 = 4.00; opponents’ games = 3 + 3 + 3 = 9; Tier 2 AVG = 4.00 ÷ 9 = 0.444. Total = 1.333 + 9 × 0.444 = 5.33.

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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