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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 7 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 4Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 7:51 AM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

Unresolved ties: Colfax and Johnson Creek (rank 28, seed #7); Brookwood and Manawa and Waterloo (rank 32, seed #8). Tied at rank 28, across the #7/#8 seed line: placement waits for WIAA's tie-break (Tier 3, then its own procedure). Their slots are left empty.

ES pick: Shiocton, 86.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ShioctonES 86%8 AbbotsfordES pick: Crivitz, 86.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 CrivitzES 87%5 McDonell Central Cath…ES pick: Hilbert, 96.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 HilbertES 97%6 RoncalliES pick: Ithaca/Weston, 93.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Ithaca/WestonES 93%7 RoyallES pick: Shiocton, 50.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ShioctonES 51%4 CrivitzES pick: Hilbert, 64.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 HilbertES 65%2 Ithaca/Weston1 ShioctonES pick: Hilbert, 57.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 HilbertES 57%1 Pepin/Alma8 tie unresolvedES pick: Pacelli, 71.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 PacelliES 71%5 RiverdaleES pick: Coleman, 89.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 ColemanES 89%6 Melrose-MindoroES pick: Cochrane-Fountain City, 81.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Cochrane-Fou…ES 82%7 CadottTBD4 Pacelli3 ColemanES pick: Cochrane-Fountain City, 61.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Cochrane-Fou…ES 61%TBD2 Cochrane-Fountain City1 Glenwood City8 tie unresolvedES pick: Boyceville, 96.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 BoycevilleES 97%5 Elmwood/Plum CityES pick: Spring Valley, 61.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Spring ValleyES 61%6 Whitehall2 Webster7 tie unresolvedTBD4 Boyceville3 Spring ValleyTBDTBDTBDES pick: Iowa-Grant, 70.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Iowa-GrantES 71%8 Black Hawk/Warren, ILES pick: Lourdes Academy, 87.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Lourdes Acad.ES 87%5 Pecatonica/ArgyleES pick: Cashton, 74.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 CashtonES 74%6 BangorES pick: River Ridge, 99.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 River RidgeES 99%7 HillsboroES pick: Iowa-Grant, 80.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Iowa-GrantES 80%4 Lourdes Acad.3 CashtonES pick: River Ridge, 88.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 River RidgeES 89%1 Iowa-GrantES pick: River Ridge, 58.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 River RidgeES 58%3 HilbertTBDState semifinalTBD2 River RidgeState semifinalTBDTBDState finalRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 7 · Week 4 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 4. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 4. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 3: in Hillsboro (34 → 25), Johnson Creek (34 → 28) · out Reedsville (32 → 35). Biggest climbs: McDonell Central Catholic ▲11, Roncalli ▲10, Hillsboro ▲9. Biggest drops: Abbotsford ▼8, Black Hawk/Warren, IL ▼7, Cochrane-Fountain City ▼6.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Shiocton checkShiocton19.591-A6 ▼5 · 2-D
2▲2Iowa-Grant checkLivingston18.341-D8 ▼6 · 2-C
3▲4Glenwood City checkGlenwood City17.091-C4 ▼1 · 1-B
4▲8Pepin/Alma check15.311-B9 ▼5 · 3-A
5–Ithaca/Weston check14.002-A2 ▲3 · 1-C
6▲7River Ridge checkPatch Grove13.442-D7 ▼1 · 2-A
7▲1Webster checkWebster12.342-C16 ▼9 · 4-B
8▼6Cochrane-Fountain City checkFountain City12.222-B1 ▲7 · 1-A
9▼6Hilbert checkHilbert11.563-A10 ▼1 · 3-B
10▼4Coleman checkColeman11.003-B3 ▲7 · 1-D
11▲6Cashton checkCashton10.703-D14 ▼3 · 4-C
12▼2Spring Valley checkSpring Valley9.633-C11 ▲1 · 3-C
13▼2Boyceville checkBoyceville9.344-C12 ▲1 · 3-D
14▲6Crivitz checkCrivitz9.314-A13 ▲1 · 4-D
15▼6Lourdes Academy checkOshkosh8.944-D5 ▲10 · 2-B
16–Pacelli checkStevens Point8.884-B20 ▼4 · 5-D
17▲11McDonell Central Catholic checkChippewa Falls8.195-A22 ▼5 · 6-D
18▼3Elmwood/Plum City check7.665-C26 ▼8 · 7-A
19▼5Pecatonica/Argyle check7.425-D28 ▼9 · 7-B
20▼1Riverdale checkMuscoda6.255-B25 ▼5 · 7-C
21▲2Bangor checkBangor5.086-D24 ▼3 · 6-A
22▲10Roncalli checkManitowoc5.066-A37 ▼15 · Out projected out
23▼5Melrose-Mindoro checkMelrose4.596-B17 ▲6 · 5-B
24▲2Whitehall checkWhitehall4.596-C23 ▲1 · 6-C
25▲9Hillsboro checkHillsboro4.287-D in30 ▼5 · 8-A
26▼2Cadott checkCadott4.257-B15 ▲11 · 4-A
27▼6Royall checkElroy3.847-A18 ▲9 · 5-A
28T▼2Colfax checkColfax3.72#733 ▼5 · Out projected out
28T▲6Johnson Creek checkJohnson Creek3.72#7 in38 ▼10 · Out projected out
30▼8Abbotsford checkAbbotsford3.258-A21 ▲9 · 6-B
31▼7Black Hawk/Warren, IL check2.008-D19 ▲12 · 5-C
32T▼4Brookwood checkOntario1.13#829 ▲3 · 8-B
32T▼4Manawa checkManawa1.13#831 ▲1 · 8-D
32T▼4Waterloo checkWaterloo1.13#832 – · 8-C
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
35▼3Reedsville checkBelow cut lineReedsville1.00Below cut line dropped35 – · Out
36T▲2Augusta checkBelow cut lineAugusta0.88Below cut line34 ▲2 · Out
36T▼2Deerfield checkBelow cut lineDeerfield0.88Below cut line43T ▼7 · Out
36T▲2New Lisbon checkBelow cut lineNew Lisbon0.88Below cut line40 ▼4 · Out
36T▼2Osseo-Fairchild checkBelow cut lineOsseo0.88Below cut line27 ▲9 · 7-D projected in
36T▲2Pittsville checkBelow cut linePittsville0.88Below cut line43T ▼7 · Out
41T▼3Blair-Taylor checkBelow cut lineBlair0.00Below cut line43T ▼2 · Out
41T▼3Boscobel checkBelow cut lineBoscobel0.00Below cut line46T ▼5 · Out
41T▼3Crandon checkBelow cut lineCrandon0.00Below cut line41 – · Out
41T▼3Dodgeland checkBelow cut lineJuneau0.00Below cut line46T ▼5 · Out
41T▼3Eleva-Strum checkBelow cut lineStrum0.00Below cut line39 ▲2 · Out
41T▼3Independence/Gilmanton checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line46T ▼5 · Out
41T▼3Necedah checkBelow cut lineNecedah0.00Below cut line36 ▲5 · Out
41T▼3Wauzeka-Steuben/Seneca checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line42 ▼1 · Out
—Catholic Central checkBurlington0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Iola-Scandinavia checkIola0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Kenosha Christian Life checkKenosha0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 4 (games through Saturday 2026-09-12). 34 of 48 in the field, 29 placed (5 waiting on a tie-break).

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Abbotsford (rank 30, seed 8)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21MarkesanW4 (D6)4.004.004yes
2026-08-28ColbyL4 (D6)0.00—4yes
2026-09-04RegisL4 (D6)0.00—4yes
2026-09-11Loyal/GreenwoodL4 (D6)0.00—4yes

Tier 1 AVG = 4.00 ÷ 4 = 1.000. Tier 2 points = 4.00 = 4.00; opponents’ games = 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 16; Tier 2 AVG = 4.00 ÷ 16 = 0.250. Total = 1.000 + 9 × 0.250 = 3.25.

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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