ES projected final field · Football Division 5 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection of the final fieldEwert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 5:35 PM CDT

No future qualifying games remain · 0 picks · partial: unresolved data can change the field · UNOFFICIAL.

Full board Region A Region B Region C Region D Final four

Final Finished, with the score
Ewert’s pick A guess, not a set matchup

Division 5 · Projected final field and cut line

Ordered by our projected final standings if the remaining ES picks win. Records, totals, seeds and the cut line use that same scenario; arrows compare with reported Week 9 standings. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank	+/−	Team	City	W-L	Total	Tier 1 AVG	Tier 2 AVG	Tier 2 Wins	Projected Seed
1	–	Racine Lutheran check	Racine	9-0	26.38	4.89	2.39	40	1-D
2	–	Darlington check	Darlington	9-0	26.33	4.17	2.46	48	1-B
3	–	Amherst check	Amherst	9-0	23.33	4.28	2.12	41	1-A
4	–	New Glarus check	New Glarus	8-1	21.50	3.67	1.98	39	1-C
5	–	Durand-Arkansaw check	Durand	8-1	19.39	3.67	1.75	35	2-B
6	–	Saint Croix Falls check	Saint Croix Falls	8-1	17.78	4.00	1.53	30	2-C
7	–	Grantsburg check	Grantsburg	8-1	17.06	3.44	1.51	31	2-A
8	–	Lake Country Lutheran check	Hartland	7-2	16.22	4.00	1.36	23	2-D
9	–	Brillion check	Brillion	7-2	15.09	3.39	1.30	24	3-A
10	–	Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning check		4-1	14.40	4.50	1.10	7	3-D
11	–	Watertown Luther Prep check	Watertown	6-3	14.39	3.50	1.21	19	3-B
12	–	Mayville check	Mayville	6-3	13.11	2.89	1.14	21	3-C
13	–	Elk Mound check	Elk Mound	6-3	11.83	2.83	1.00	20	4-B
14	–	Chilton check	Chilton	5-4	11.50	2.28	1.02	19	4-A
15	–	New Holstein check	New Holstein	6-3	11.50	2.89	0.96	17	4-C
16	–	Kiel check	Kiel	5-4	11.39	2.44	0.99	18	4-D
17	–	Westfield check	Westfield	6-3	10.83	2.56	0.92	19	5-B
18	–	Winnebago Lutheran check	Fond du Lac	5-4	10.61	2.44	0.91	15	5-C
19	–	Milwaukee Academy of Science check	Milwaukee	5-4	10.28	2.72	0.84	14	5-D
20	–	Peshtigo check	Peshtigo	5-4	9.61	2.50	0.79	14	5-A
21	–	Amery check	Amery	5-4	9.56	2.61	0.77	14	6-C
22	–	University School of Milwaukee check	Milwaukee	6-3	8.59	3.22	0.60	10	6-D
23	–	Arcadia check	Arcadia	5-4	8.39	2.17	0.69	14	6-B
24	–	Tomahawk check	Tomahawk	4-5	7.72	2.39	0.59	9	6-A
25	–	Spencer/Columbus Catholic check		4-5	7.56	1.72	0.65	13	7-A
26	–	Ozaukee/Random Lake check		5-4	7.56	2.22	0.59	11	7-B
27	–	Brookfield Academy check	Brookfield	3-6	6.96	1.44	0.61	10	7-D
28	–	Oostburg check	Oostburg	5-4	6.33	2.33	0.44	9	7-C
29	–	Dodgeville check	Dodgeville	4-5	5.89	1.94	0.44	8	8-B
30	–	Bloomer check	Bloomer	4-5	5.22	2.00	0.36	7	8-C
31	–	Wittenberg-Birnamwood check	Wittenberg	2-7	5.11	1.00	0.46	8	8-A
32	–	Columbus check	Columbus	2-7	5.00	1.11	0.43	7	8-D
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33	–	Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau checkBelow cut line	Galesville	3-6	4.50	1.44	0.34	7	Below cut line
34	–	Obama SCTE checkBelow cut line	Milwaukee	3-3	4.04	2.75	0.14	1	Below cut line
35	–	Northland Pines checkBelow cut line	Eagle River	4-5	3.78	1.89	0.21	4	Below cut line
36	–	Neillsville/Granton checkBelow cut line		3-6	3.67	1.22	0.27	6	Below cut line
37	–	Wautoma checkBelow cut line	Wautoma	2-7	3.56	1.00	0.28	6	Below cut line
38	–	East Troy checkBelow cut line	East Troy	2-7	3.00	1.11	0.21	4	Below cut line
39	–	Southwestern/East Dubuque (IL) checkBelow cut line		2-7	2.72	0.94	0.20	4	Below cut line
40	–	Parkview/Albany checkBelow cut line		3-6	2.72	1.17	0.17	4	Below cut line
41	–	Kingdom Prep Lutheran checkBelow cut line	Wauwatosa	3-6	2.12	1.72	0.04	1	Below cut line
42	–	Richland Center checkBelow cut line	Richland Center	3-6	2.00	1.50	0.06	1	Below cut line
43	–	Spooner checkBelow cut line	Spooner	1-8	1.33	0.44	0.10	2	Below cut line
44T	–	Omro checkBelow cut line	Omro	1-8	0.56	0.56	0.00	0	Below cut line
44T	–	Prescott checkBelow cut line	Prescott	1-8	0.56	0.56	0.00	0	Below cut line
46T	–	Brodhead/Juda checkBelow cut line		1-8	0.50	0.50	0.00	0	Below cut line
46T	–	Sturgeon Bay checkBelow cut line	Sturgeon Bay	1-8	0.50	0.50	0.00	0	Below cut line
48T	–	Adams-Friendship checkBelow cut line	Adams	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
48T	–	Clintonville checkBelow cut line	Clintonville	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
48T	–	River Valley checkBelow cut line	Spring Green	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
48T	–	Viroqua checkBelow cut line	Viroqua	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
—		Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified		0-0	—	—	—	—	Unverified
—		Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified		0-0	—	—	—	—	Unverified

Remaining-game assumptions

0 ES picks; 0 future games without a qualified pick; 1 other games awaiting a confirmed result or schedule; 1 held games. Neither the field nor the pairings are official.

The same current ES pick is used for both teams, then every opponent's points and games are recomputed through Friday 2026-10-16. No predicted score or result is saved. Forecasts remain fixed for this scenario; they refresh after actual results through the normal rating update.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Unofficial projection. This final-field scenario adds the qualified ES picks above to actual results; it does not predict a completed result or the likelihood of this exact combined bracket. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the actual results plus hypothetical winners, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 9 (games dated Friday 2026-10-16 or earlier; WIAA deadline: completion before 11:59 p.m. Central; stored dates do not establish finish times). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Amery (rank 21, seed 6)

Date	Opponent	Result	Opponent’s value	Tier 1 earned	Opp. Tier 1 points	Opp. games	Counts?
2026-08-21	Grantsburg	L	4.5 (D5)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-08-27	Unity	W	4 (D6)	4.00	19.00	9	yes
2026-09-04	Saint Croix Central	W	5 (D4)	5.00	14.50	9	yes
2026-09-11	Somerset	W	5 (D4)	5.00	24.00	9	yes
2026-09-18	Baldwin-Woodville	L	5.5 (D3)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-09-25	Ellsworth	W	5 (D4)	5.00	0.00	9	yes
2026-10-02	Altoona	L	5 (D4)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-10-09	Osceola	L	5 (D4)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-10-16	Prescott	W	4.5 (D5)	4.50	5.00	9	yes

Tier 1 AVG = 23.50 ÷ 9 = 2.611. Tier 2 points = 19.00 + 14.50 + 24.00 + 0.00 + 5.00 = 62.50; opponents’ games = 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 81; Tier 2 AVG = 62.50 ÷ 81 = 0.772. Total = 2.611 + 9 × 0.772 = 9.56 (Tier 3 tie-break 2.74).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Confirmed matchups in the bracket open game pages; team pages are linked in the field table and on each game page.