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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 4 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 8Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 1:38 PM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Freedom, 99.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 99%8 SeymourES pick: Osceola, 98.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 OsceolaES 99%5 MaustonES pick: Aquinas, 93.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 AquinasES 93%6 AshlandES pick: Northwestern, 94.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 NorthwesternES 94%7 DenmarkES pick: Freedom, 94.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 95%4 Osceola3 AquinasES pick: Northwestern, 75.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 NorthwesternES 75%ES pick: Freedom, 89.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 90%2 NorthwesternES pick: Lake Mills, 96.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Lake MillsES 96%8 Turner4 LodiES pick: Lakeside Lutheran, 60.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Lakeside Lut…ES 60%3 PlattevilleES pick: Wrightstown, 64.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 WrightstownES 64%ES pick: West Salem, 99.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West SalemES 100%7 Wisconsin DellsES pick: Lake Mills, 77.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Lake MillsES 77%5 Lakeside Lutheran6 WrightstownES pick: West Salem, 86.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West SalemES 86%1 Lake MillsES pick: West Salem, 70.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West SalemES 70%ES pick: Little Chute, 97.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 97%8 Somerset4 BerlinES pick: Xavier, 87.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 XavierES 87%ES pick: Saint Francis, 90.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Saint FrancisES 91%6 Fuller Collegiate Aca…ES pick: Stratford, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 StratfordES 98%7 RiponES pick: Little Chute, 94.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 95%5 Xavier3 Saint FrancisES pick: Stratford, 94.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 StratfordES 95%ES pick: Little Chute, 86.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little ChuteES 86%2 StratfordES pick: Racine St. Catherine's, 78.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine St. C…ES 79%8 KewaskumES pick: Evansville, 74.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 EvansvilleES 75%5 Shoreland LutheranES pick: Delavan-Darien, 87.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Delavan-Dari…ES 87%6 EdgertonES pick: Edgewood, 90.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgewoodES 90%7 CampbellsportES pick: Racine St. Catherine's, 75.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine St. C…ES 76%4 Evansville3 Delavan-DarienES pick: Edgewood, 75.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgewoodES 76%1 Racine St. Catherine'sES pick: Edgewood, 52.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgewoodES 52%ES pick: Freedom, 81.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 FreedomES 81%2 West SalemState semifinalES pick: Little Chute, 87.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Little ChuteES 87%2 EdgewoodState semifinalES pick: Freedom, 71.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 FreedomES 71%1 Little ChuteState final · ES pick: FreedomRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 4 · Week 8 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 8. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 8. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 7: in Wrightstown (36 → 24), Kewaskum (40 → 30), Turner (33 → 32) · out Jefferson (29 → 35), Kohler (30 → 36), Saint Thomas More (32 → 34). Biggest climbs: Wrightstown ▲12, Kewaskum ▲10, Mauston ▲7. Biggest drops: Denmark ▼7, Ripon ▼7, Lakeside Lutheran ▼5.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Freedom checkFreedom32.341-A1 – · 1-A
2–Little Chute checkLittle Chute23.701-C4 ▼2 · 1-B
3▲4Racine St. Catherine's checkRacine23.161-D3 – · 1-D
4▲1Lake Mills checkLake Mills21.811-B2 ▲2 · 1-C
5▼2West Salem checkWest Salem21.762-B5 – · 2-C
6▼2Stratford checkStratford19.712-C7 ▼1 · 2-B
7▲2Northwestern checkMaple19.182-A6 ▲1 · 2-A
8▼2Edgewood checkMadison19.112-D8 – · 2-D
9▼1Delavan-Darien checkDelavan16.923-D11 ▼2 · 3-D
10–Aquinas checkLa Crosse16.033-A10 – · 3-C
11–Saint Francis checkSaint Francis15.903-C14 ▼3 · 4-D
12▲3Platteville checkPlatteville15.903-B15 ▼3 · 4-B
13▲3Lodi checkLodi15.004-B13 – · 4-A
14▲3Osceola checkOsceola14.954-A9 ▲5 · 3-A
15▼1Berlin checkBerlin14.474-C18 ▼3 · 5-C
16▼3Evansville checkEvansville13.554-D17 ▼1 · 5-B
17▼5Lakeside Lutheran checkLake Mills13.485-B16 ▲1 · 4-C
18▲7Mauston checkMauston13.215-A20 ▼2 · 5-A
19▼1Shoreland Lutheran checkKenosha12.695-D19 – · 5-D
20▲2Xavier checkAppleton12.245-C21 ▼1 · 6-C
21▲3Fuller Collegiate Academy checkMilwaukee11.616-C12 ▲9 · 3-B
22▲1Ashland checkAshland10.196-A22 – · 6-A
23▼2Edgerton checkEdgerton9.326-D29 ▼6 · 8-C
24▲12Wrightstown checkWrightstown9.196-B in23 ▲1 · 6-B
25▲2Campbellsport checkCampbellsport9.067-D24 ▲1 · 6-D
26▼7Denmark checkDenmark9.017-A31 ▼5 · 8-A
27▼7Ripon checkRipon8.787-C26 ▲1 · 7-D
28▼2Wisconsin Dells checkWisconsin Dells8.777-B28 – · 7-C
29▲2Seymour checkSeymour8.748-A25 ▲4 · 7-B
30▲10Kewaskum checkKewaskum6.988-D in33 ▼3 · Out projected out
31▼3Somerset checkSomerset6.888-C27 ▲4 · 7-A
32▲1Turner checkBeloit6.818-B in30 ▲2 · 8-D
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▲1Oconto Falls checkBelow cut lineOconto Falls6.68Below cut line34 ▼1 · Out
34▼2Saint Thomas More checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee5.75Below cut line dropped35 ▼1 · Out
35▼6Jefferson checkBelow cut lineJefferson5.39Below cut line dropped40 ▼5 · Out
36▼6Kohler checkBelow cut lineKohler5.14Below cut line dropped39 ▼3 · Out
37–Marinette checkBelow cut lineMarinette4.54Below cut line38 ▼1 · Out
38▼3Altoona checkBelow cut lineAltoona4.50Below cut line37 ▲1 · Out
39▼1Brown Deer checkBelow cut lineBrown Deer4.27Below cut line41 ▼2 · Out
40▲1Black River Falls checkBelow cut lineBlack River Falls3.95Below cut line32 ▲8 · 8-B projected in
41▲2Saint Croix Central checkBelow cut lineHammond3.78Below cut line42 ▼1 · Out
42▼3Two Rivers checkBelow cut lineTwo Rivers3.27Below cut line44 ▼2 · Out
43▼1Big Foot checkBelow cut lineWalworth2.75Below cut line43 – · Out
44▲1Waupun checkBelow cut lineWaupun2.39Below cut line36 ▲8 · Out
45▼1Whitewater checkBelow cut lineWhitewater2.26Below cut line45 – · Out
46▲1Milwaukee School of Languages checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee1.38Below cut line46 – · Out
47▼1Mosinee checkBelow cut lineMosinee0.69Below cut line47 – · Out
48T–Ellsworth checkBelow cut lineEllsworth0.00Below cut line48T – · Out
48T–North Fond du Lac checkBelow cut lineNorth Fond du Lac0.00Below cut line48T – · Out
48T–Sheboygan Falls checkBelow cut lineSheboygan Falls0.00Below cut line48T – · Out
—Milwaukee Madison checkMilwaukee0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 8 (games through Saturday 2026-10-10). 32 of 50 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Aquinas (rank 10, seed 3)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Prairie du ChienW4 (D6)4.0022.508yes
2026-08-28Saint Croix CentralW5 (D4)5.0014.508yes
2026-09-04West SalemL5 (D4)0.00—8yes
2026-09-11Black River FallsW5 (D4)5.0013.008yes
2026-09-17Gale-Ettrick-TrempealeauW4.5 (D5)4.508.508yes
2026-09-25ViroquaW4.5 (D5)4.500.008yes
2026-10-02ArcadiaW4.5 (D5)4.5019.508yes
2026-10-09WestbyW4 (D6)4.008.008yes

Tier 1 AVG = 31.50 ÷ 8 = 3.938. Tier 2 points = 22.50 + 14.50 + 13.00 + 8.50 + 0.00 + 19.50 + 8.00 = 86.00; opponents’ games = 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 = 64; Tier 2 AVG = 86.00 ÷ 64 = 1.344. Total = 3.938 + 9 × 1.344 = 16.03 (Tier 3 tie-break 2.92).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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