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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 3 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 5Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 7:58 PM CDT

  • Final Finished, with the score
  • Ewert’s pick A guess, not a set matchup
ES pick: Port Washington, 95.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port W…ES 96%8 MerrillEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Portage, 72.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 PortageES 72%5 RhinelanderEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: New Berlin West, 68.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 New Be…ES 68%6 Catholic Mem…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Plymouth, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Plymou…ES 99%7 Pius XI Cath…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Port Washington, 96.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port W…ES 96%4 PortageEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: New Berlin West, 64.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 New Be…ES 64%2 PlymouthEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK1 Port Washing…ES pick: New Berlin West, 57.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 New Be…ES 58%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Reedsburg, 96.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Reedsb…ES 97%8 SpartaEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK4 Mount Horeb/…ES pick: Baldwin-Woodville, 73.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Baldwi…ES 74%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK3 WinneconneES pick: Onalaska, 51.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Onalas…ES 51%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: La Crosse Logan, 91.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Cro…ES 91%7 GreendaleEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Reedsburg, 50.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Reedsb…ES 51%5 Baldwin-Wood…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK6 OnalaskaES pick: La Crosse Logan, 74.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Cro…ES 74%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK1 ReedsburgES pick: La Crosse Logan, 57.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Cro…ES 57%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Pewaukee, 99.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Pewauk…ES 99%8 McFarlandEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Waterford, 86.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Waterf…ES 87%5 Kettle Morai…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 87.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Va…ES 88%6 Sauk PrairieEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Medford, 94.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 MedfordES 94%7 Wauwatosa We…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Pewaukee, 85.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Pewauk…ES 85%4 WaterfordEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 53.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Va…ES 54%2 MedfordEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Pewaukee, 78.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Pewauk…ES 79%3 Fox Valley L…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Whitefish Bay, 95.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Whitef…ES 95%8 Waukesha Nor…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK4 Milwaukee Lu…ES pick: Luxemburg-Casco, 87.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Luxemb…ES 87%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK3 New Berlin E…ES pick: Wisconsin Lutheran, 51.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Wiscon…ES 51%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK2 Milwaukee Ba…ES pick: South Milwaukee, 75.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.7 South…ES 75%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Whitefish Bay, 60.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Whitef…ES 60%5 Luxemburg-Ca…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Wisconsin Lutheran, 98.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Wiscon…ES 98%7 South Milwau…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Whitefish Bay, 75.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Whitef…ES 75%6 Wisconsin Lu…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: New Berlin West, 53.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.3 New Be…ES 53%2 La Crosse Lo…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState semifinalES pick: Pewaukee, 81.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Pewauk…ES 81%1 Whitefish BayEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState semifinal3 New Berlin W…ES pick: Pewaukee, 62.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Pewauk…ES 63%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState final · ES pick: PewaukeeRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Division 3 · Week 5 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 5. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 5. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 4: in Wauwatosa West (44 → 28), McFarland (37 → 29) · out Green Bay West (28 → 33), New London (31 → 35). Biggest climbs: Wauwatosa West ▲16, Baldwin-Woodville ▲12, New Berlin West ▲9. Biggest drops: Portage ▼8, Rhinelander ▼8, Waukesha North ▼8.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲1Pewaukee checkPewaukee29.721-C1 – · 1-C
2▲1Port Washington checkPort Washington25.421-A2 – · 1-A
3▼2Reedsburg checkReedsburg24.941-B7 ▼4 · 2-C
4–Whitefish Bay checkWhitefish Bay23.681-D5 ▼1 · 2-D
5▲2La Crosse Logan checkLa Crosse22.342-B3 ▲2 · 1-B
6▲8Milwaukee Bay View checkMilwaukee21.962-DExcluded
7▲5Medford checkMedford21.582-C8 ▼1 · 2-B
8▼2Plymouth checkPlymouth21.262-A10 ▼2 · 3-A
9▲4New Berlin Eisenhower checkNew Berlin19.963-D9 – · 3-C
10▲9New Berlin West checkNew Berlin19.463-A4 ▲6 · 1-D
11▼2Fox Valley Lutheran checkAppleton17.843-C11 – · 3-B
12▼4Winneconne checkWinneconne16.003-B6 ▲6 · 2-A
13▼8Portage checkPortage15.524-A18 ▼5 · 5-C
14▼3Milwaukee Lutheran checkMilwaukee15.364-D21 ▼7 · 6-D
15▲8Waterford checkWaterford14.144-C13 ▲2 · 4-C
16▲5Mount Horeb/Barneveld check12.744-B14 ▲2 · 4-B
17▲12Baldwin-Woodville checkBaldwin12.545-B17 – · 5-B
18▼8Rhinelander checkRhinelander12.485-A23 ▼5 · 6-B
19▲1Kettle Moraine Lutheran checkJackson12.185-C22 ▼3 · 6-C
20▼3Luxemburg-Casco checkLuxemburg11.285-D15 ▲5 · 4-A
21▼5Catholic Memorial checkWaukesha11.066-A20 ▲1 · 5-D
22▼7Sauk Prairie checkPrairie du Sac11.046-C25 ▼3 · 7-C
23▼5Wisconsin Lutheran checkMilwaukee10.586-D12 ▲11 · 3-D
24▲2Onalaska checkOnalaska10.306-B24 – · 6-A
25▲5Greendale checkGreendale9.447-B16 ▲9 · 4-D
26▼2South Milwaukee checkSouth Milwaukee9.187-D31 ▼5 · 8-A
27▼2Pius XI Catholic checkMilwaukee8.497-A32 ▼5 · 8-C
28▲16Wauwatosa West checkWauwatosa7.867-C in33 ▼5 · Out projected out
29▲8McFarland checkMcFarland7.328-C in28 ▲1 · 7-A
30▼8Waukesha North checkWaukesha7.048-D29 ▲1 · 8-B
31▲1Merrill checkMerrill6.768-A19 ▲12 · 5-A
32▼5Sparta checkSparta5.888-B35 ▼3 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼5Green Bay West checkBelow cut lineGreen Bay4.90Below cut line dropped27 ▲6 · 7-B projected in
34▲6Martin Luther checkBelow cut lineGreendale4.26Below cut line34 – · Out
35▼4New London checkBelow cut lineNew London4.18Below cut line dropped38 ▼3 · Out
36▼2Wilmot Union checkBelow cut lineWilmot3.50Below cut line26 ▲10 · 7-D projected in
37▼4Monroe checkBelow cut lineMonroe3.44Below cut line42 ▼5 · Out
38▼3Stoughton checkBelow cut lineStoughton3.08Below cut line41 ▼3 · Out
39▼3Shawano checkBelow cut lineShawano3.08Below cut line39 – · Out
40▼2Lakeland checkBelow cut lineMinocqua2.72Below cut line36 ▲4 · Out
41▼2Hayward/Lac Courte Oreilles checkBelow cut line2.34Below cut line37 ▲4 · Out
42▼1Fort Atkinson checkBelow cut lineFort Atkinson1.30Below cut line43 ▼1 · Out
43▼1Baraboo checkBelow cut lineBaraboo1.10Below cut line40 ▲3 · Out
44▼1Cudahy checkBelow cut lineCudahy0.70Below cut line44 – · Out
45T▼1Antigo checkBelow cut lineAntigo0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▼1Milwaukee Vincent checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▼1Milwaukee Washington checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut lineExcluded
45T▼1Tomah checkBelow cut lineTomah0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▼1Waupaca checkBelow cut lineWaupaca0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▼1West Bend East checkBelow cut lineWest Bend0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▼1Whitnall checkBelow cut lineGreenfield0.00Below cut line30 ▲15 · 8-D projected in
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 5 (games through Saturday 2026-09-19). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Baldwin-Woodville (rank 17, seed 5)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21TomahW5.5 (D3)5.500.005yes
2026-08-28PewaukeeL5.5 (D3)0.00—5yes
2026-09-04PrescottW4.5 (D5)4.505.005yes
2026-09-11Saint Croix CentralW5 (D4)5.005.005yes
2026-09-18AmeryW4.5 (D5)4.5014.005yes

Tier 1 AVG = 19.50 ÷ 5 = 3.900. Tier 2 points = 0.00 + 5.00 + 5.00 + 14.00 = 24.00; opponents’ games = 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 25; Tier 2 AVG = 24.00 ÷ 25 = 0.960. Total = 3.900 + 9 × 0.960 = 12.54 (Tier 3 tie-break 2.02).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Confirmed matchups in the bracket open game pages; team pages are linked in the field table and on each game page.

WIAA Football Playoff Brackets: Official and Projected | Ewert Sports | Ewert Sports