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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 6 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 4Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 5:36 PM CDT

  • Final Finished, with the score
  • Ewert’s pick A guess, not a set matchup
ES pick: Manitowoc Lutheran, 96.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Manito…ES 97%8 OcontoEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Kewaunee, 70.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Kewaun…ES 70%5 BellevilleEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic, 59.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Kenosh…ES 59%6 Cuba CityEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Mineral Point, 56.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Minera…ES 57%7 CambridgeEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Manitowoc Lutheran, 54.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Manito…ES 55%4 KewauneeEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic, 50.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Kenosh…ES 50%2 Mineral PointEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Manitowoc Lutheran, 75.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Manito…ES 76%3 Kenosha St.…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Bonduel, 94.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BonduelES 94%8 ColbyEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Saint Mary Catholic, 70.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Saint…ES 70%5 BentonEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Cedar Grove-Belgium, 91.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Cedar…ES 91%6 Fall River/R…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Edgar, 98.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgarES 99%7 LaconiaEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Bonduel, 79.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 BonduelES 80%4 Saint Mary C…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK3 Cedar Grove-…ES pick: Edgar, 82.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgarES 83%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK1 BonduelES pick: Edgar, 53.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 EdgarES 54%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Mondovi, 99.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Mondo…ES 100%8 Chetek-Weyer…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK4 Weyauwega-Fr…ES pick: Luther, 64.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 LutherES 64%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK3 Saint Mary's…ES pick: Prairie du Chien, 52.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Prairi…ES 53%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Regis, 75.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 RegisES 76%7 MarathonEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Mondovi, 91.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MondoviES 92%5 LutherEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK6 Prairie du C…ES pick: Regis, 69.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 RegisES 69%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Mondovi, 83.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MondoviES 84%2 RegisEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK1 Randolph/Cam…ES pick: Loyal/Greenwood, 58.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.8 Loyal/…ES 59%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK4 PardeevilleES pick: Potosi/Cassville, 57.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Potosi…ES 57%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Lomira, 90.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 LomiraES 91%6 FennimoreEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Poynette, 57.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Poynet…ES 58%7 MarshallEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK8 Loyal/Greenw…ES pick: Potosi/Cassville, 58.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Potosi…ES 59%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Lomira, 96.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 LomiraES 97%2 PoynetteEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK5 Potosi/Cassv…ES pick: Lomira, 78.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 LomiraES 79%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK1 Manitowoc Lu…ES pick: Edgar, 63.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 EdgarES 63%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState semifinalES pick: Mondovi, 78.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MondoviES 78%3 LomiraEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState semifinal2 EdgarES pick: Mondovi, 62.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MondoviES 62%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState final · ES pick: MondoviRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Division 6 · Week 4 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 4. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 4. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 3: in Fall River/Rio (34 → 24), Oconto (34 → 31), Loyal/Greenwood (34 → 32) · out Southern Door (26 → 33), Fall Creek (30 → 35), Cameron (31 → 36), Cumberland (31 → 36). Biggest climbs: Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic ▲13, Benton ▲12, Edgar ▲11. Biggest drops: Weyauwega-Fremont ▼11, Chetek-Weyerhaeuser ▼10, Fennimore ▼9.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲1Bonduel checkBonduel22.531-B2 ▼1 · 1-A
2▼1Randolph/Cambria-Friesland check22.001-D15 ▼13 · 4-D
3–Mondovi checkMondovi21.091-C1 ▲2 · 1-C
4–Manitowoc Lutheran checkManitowoc20.591-A4 – · 1-D
5▲5Regis checkEau Claire18.472-C11 ▼6 · 3-A
6–Poynette checkPoynette17.222-D28 ▼22 · 7-C
7▲11Edgar checkEdgar16.812-B3 ▲4 · 1-B
8▼1Mineral Point checkMineral Point16.032-A13 ▼5 · 4-C
9▲5Lomira checkLomira16.003-D5 ▲4 · 2-B
10▼2Saint Mary's Springs checkFond du Lac15.193-C19 ▼9 · 5-B
11▲13Kenosha St. Joseph Catholic checkKenosha14.343-A6 ▲5 · 2-C
12▲5Cedar Grove-Belgium checkCedar Grove13.973-B10 ▲2 · 3-D
13▼1Kewaunee checkKewaunee13.594-A8 ▲5 · 2-D
14▲1Pardeeville checkPardeeville13.414-D16 ▼2 · 4-A
15▼4Saint Mary Catholic checkNeenah12.814-B7 ▲8 · 2-A
16▼11Weyauwega-Fremont checkWeyauwega12.784-C18 ▼2 · 5-D
17▼8Potosi/Cassville check11.595-D17 – · 5-C
18▲5Luther checkOnalaska11.565-C21 ▼3 · 6-B
19▲12Benton checkBenton10.965-B24 ▼5 · 6-C
20▲2Belleville checkBelleville10.315-A14 ▲6 · 4-B
21▼5Cuba City checkCuba City9.596-A12 ▲9 · 3-C
22▼9Fennimore checkFennimore9.346-D36 ▼14 · Out projected out
23▲2Prairie du Chien checkPrairie du Chien8.726-C30 ▼7 · 8-B
24▲10Fall River/Rio check8.066-B in25 ▼1 · 7-B
25▼6Marshall checkMarshall7.667-D37 ▼12 · Out projected out
26▲3Laconia checkRosendale7.197-B38 ▼12 · Out projected out
27▼6Marathon checkMarathon7.097-C22 ▲5 · 6-A
28–Cambridge checkCambridge7.037-A9 ▲19 · 3-B
29▼10Chetek-Weyerhaeuser checkChetek5.508-C45 ▼16 · Out projected out
30▼3Colby checkColby5.258-B33 ▼3 · Out projected out
31▲3Oconto checkOconto4.668-A in35 ▼4 · Out projected out
32▲2Loyal/Greenwood check4.138-D in26 ▲6 · 7-D
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼7Southern Door checkBelow cut lineBrussels4.06Below cut line dropped40 ▼7 · Out
34▲7Unity checkBelow cut lineBalsam Lake3.25Below cut line29 ▲5 · 8-C projected in
35▼5Fall Creek checkBelow cut lineFall Creek3.25Below cut line dropped27 ▲8 · 7-A projected in
36T▼5Cameron checkBelow cut lineCameron2.00Below cut line dropped44 ▼8 · Out
36T▼5Cumberland checkBelow cut lineCumberland2.00Below cut line dropped47 ▼11 · Out
38T▼4Howards Grove checkBelow cut lineHowards Grove1.00Below cut line43 ▼5 · Out
38T▼4Markesan checkBelow cut lineMarkesan1.00Below cut line34 ▲4 · Out
40T▼1Nekoosa checkBelow cut lineNekoosa0.88Below cut line20 ▲20 · 5-A projected in
40T▼1Westby checkBelow cut lineWestby0.88Below cut line49 ▼9 · Out
42T▼1Auburndale checkBelow cut lineAuburndale0.00Below cut line41 ▲1 · Out
42T▼1Barron checkBelow cut lineBarron0.00Below cut line48 ▼6 · Out
42T▼1Clinton checkBelow cut lineClinton0.00Below cut line42 – · Out
42T▼1Horicon/Hustisford checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line46 ▼4 · Out
42T▼1Ladysmith checkBelow cut lineLadysmith0.00Below cut line50T ▼8 · Out
42T▼1Lancaster checkBelow cut lineLancaster0.00Below cut line31 ▲11 · 8-A projected in
42T▼1Living Word Lutheran checkBelow cut lineJackson0.00Below cut line32 ▲10 · 8-D projected in
42T▼1Mishicot checkBelow cut lineMishicot0.00Below cut line50T ▼8 · Out
42T▼1Stanley-Boyd checkBelow cut lineStanley0.00Below cut line39 ▲3 · Out
42T▼1Valders checkBelow cut lineValders0.00Below cut line23 ▲19 · 6-D projected in
—Catholic Central/Ken Ch Life checkBurlington7.63ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 4 (games through Saturday 2026-09-12). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Laconia (rank 26, seed 7)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-20RiponL5 (D4)0.00—4yes
2026-08-28MarkesanW4 (D6)4.004.004yes
2026-09-04Saint Mary's SpringsL4 (D6)0.00—4yes
2026-09-11OmroW4.5 (D5)4.505.004yes

Tier 1 AVG = 8.50 ÷ 4 = 2.125. Tier 2 points = 4.00 + 5.00 = 9.00; opponents’ games = 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 16; Tier 2 AVG = 9.00 ÷ 16 = 0.563. Total = 2.125 + 9 × 0.563 = 7.19.

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Confirmed matchups in the bracket open game pages; team pages are linked in the field table and on each game page.

WIAA Football Playoff Brackets: Official and Projected | Ewert Sports | Ewert Sports