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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 7 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 5Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 5:14 PM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Shiocton, 95.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ShioctonES 95%8 Roncalli4 CrivitzES pick: Hilbert, 54.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 HilbertES 54%ES pick: Coleman, 95.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 ColemanES 96%6 McDonell Central Cath…ES pick: Lourdes Academy, 87.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Lourdes Acad.ES 87%7 Pecatonica/Argyle1 ShioctonES pick: Hilbert, 57.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 HilbertES 57%ES pick: Coleman, 81.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 ColemanES 81%2 Lourdes Acad.5 HilbertES pick: Coleman, 74.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 ColemanES 75%ES pick: Cochrane-Fountain City, 98.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Cochrane-Fou…ES 99%8 ReedsvilleES pick: Melrose-Mindoro, 87.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Melrose-Mind…ES 88%5 RiverdaleES pick: Cashton, 92.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 CashtonES 92%6 RoyallES pick: Ithaca/Weston, 75.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Ithaca/WestonES 76%7 BangorES pick: Cochrane-Fountain City, 91.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Cochrane-Fou…ES 92%4 Melrose-Mindoro3 CashtonES pick: Ithaca/Weston, 56.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Ithaca/WestonES 56%ES pick: Cochrane-Fountain City, 89.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Cochrane-Fou…ES 90%2 Ithaca/WestonES pick: Glenwood City, 97.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Glenwood CityES 98%8 HillsboroES pick: Cadott, 53.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 CadottES 53%5 BoycevilleES pick: Spring Valley, 92.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Spring ValleyES 93%6 Elmwood/Plum CityES pick: Webster, 82.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 WebsterES 82%7 Osseo-FairchildES pick: Glenwood City, 60.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Glenwood CityES 61%4 CadottES pick: Spring Valley, 50.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Spring ValleyES 50%2 WebsterES pick: Glenwood City, 77.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Glenwood CityES 77%3 Spring ValleyES pick: Iowa-Grant, 99.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Iowa-GrantES 100%8 Johnson CreekES pick: Abbotsford, 53.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 AbbotsfordES 53%5 PacelliES pick: Pepin/Alma, 98.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Pepin/AlmaES 98%6 ColfaxES pick: River Ridge, 91.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 River RidgeES 92%7 WhitehallES pick: Iowa-Grant, 94.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Iowa-GrantES 95%4 Abbotsford3 Pepin/AlmaES pick: River Ridge, 63.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 River RidgeES 63%1 Iowa-GrantES pick: River Ridge, 58.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 River RidgeES 58%3 ColemanES pick: Cochrane-Fountain City, 57.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Cochrane-Fou…ES 57%State semifinal1 Glenwood CityES pick: River Ridge, 71.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 River RidgeES 71%State semifinalES pick: Cochrane-Fountain City, 54.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Cochrane-Fou…ES 54%2 River RidgeState final · ES pick: Cochrane-Fountain CityRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 7 · Week 5 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 5. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 5. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 4: in Osseo-Fairchild (36 → 28), Reedsville (35 → 31) · out Black Hawk/Warren, IL (31 → 34), Brookwood (32 → 35), Manawa (32 → 35), Waterloo (32 → 35). Biggest climbs: Abbotsford ▲16, Cadott ▲13, Lourdes Academy ▲8. Biggest drops: Hilbert ▼9, Roncalli ▼7, Hillsboro ▼7.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Shiocton checkShiocton18.401-A6 ▼5 · 2-D
2–Iowa-Grant checkLivingston18.401-D8 ▼6 · 2-C
3–Glenwood City checkGlenwood City17.841-C4 ▼1 · 1-B
4▲4Cochrane-Fountain City checkFountain City16.641-B1 ▲3 · 1-A
5–Ithaca/Weston check14.972-B2 ▲3 · 1-C
6▲1Webster checkWebster14.682-C16 ▼10 · 4-B
7▲8Lourdes Academy checkOshkosh14.442-A5 ▲2 · 2-B
8▼2River Ridge checkPatch Grove12.622-D7 ▲1 · 2-A
9▲2Cashton checkCashton11.943-B14 ▼5 · 4-C
10▼6Pepin/Alma check11.623-D9 ▲1 · 3-A
11▼1Coleman checkColeman10.603-A3 ▲8 · 1-D
12–Spring Valley checkSpring Valley9.843-C11 ▲1 · 3-C
13▲13Cadott checkCadott9.324-C15 ▼2 · 4-A
14▲16Abbotsford checkAbbotsford9.244-D21 ▼7 · 6-B
15▲8Melrose-Mindoro checkMelrose9.104-B17 ▼2 · 5-B
16▼2Crivitz checkCrivitz8.984-A13 ▲3 · 4-D
17▲3Riverdale checkMuscoda8.955-B25 ▼8 · 7-C
18▼9Hilbert checkHilbert8.525-A10 ▲8 · 3-B
19▼6Boyceville checkBoyceville7.705-C12 ▲7 · 3-D
20▼4Pacelli checkStevens Point7.645-D20 – · 5-D
21▼3Elmwood/Plum City check6.446-C26 ▼5 · 7-A
22▲5Royall checkElroy6.346-B18 ▲4 · 5-A
23▼6McDonell Central Catholic checkChippewa Falls5.566-A22 ▲1 · 6-D
24▲4Colfax checkColfax5.186-D33 ▼9 · Out projected out
25▼6Pecatonica/Argyle check5.107-A28 ▼3 · 7-B
26▼2Whitehall checkWhitehall4.627-D23 ▲3 · 6-C
27▼6Bangor checkBangor4.037-B24 ▲3 · 6-A
28▲8Osseo-Fairchild checkOsseo3.927-C in27 ▲1 · 7-D
29▼7Roncalli checkManitowoc3.608-A37 ▼8 · Out projected out
30▼2Johnson Creek checkJohnson Creek3.368-D38 ▼8 · Out projected out
31▲4Reedsville checkReedsville3.048-B in35 ▼4 · Out projected out
32▼7Hillsboro checkHillsboro3.028-C30 ▲2 · 8-A
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▲3Augusta checkBelow cut lineAugusta2.66Below cut line34 ▼1 · Out
34▼3Black Hawk/Warren, IL checkBelow cut line2.30Below cut line dropped19 ▲15 · 5-C projected in
35T▼3Brookwood checkBelow cut lineOntario0.90Below cut line dropped29 ▲6 · 8-B projected in
35T▼3Manawa checkBelow cut lineManawa0.90Below cut line dropped31 ▲4 · 8-D projected in
35T▼3Waterloo checkBelow cut lineWaterloo0.90Below cut line dropped32 ▲3 · 8-C projected in
38T▼2Deerfield checkBelow cut lineDeerfield0.70Below cut line43T ▼5 · Out
38T▲3Eleva-Strum checkBelow cut lineStrum0.70Below cut line39 ▼1 · Out
38T▼2New Lisbon checkBelow cut lineNew Lisbon0.70Below cut line40 ▼2 · Out
38T▼2Pittsville checkBelow cut linePittsville0.70Below cut line43T ▼5 · Out
42T▼1Blair-Taylor checkBelow cut lineBlair0.00Below cut line43T ▼1 · Out
42T▼1Boscobel checkBelow cut lineBoscobel0.00Below cut line46T ▼4 · Out
42T▼1Crandon checkBelow cut lineCrandon0.00Below cut line41 ▲1 · Out
42T▼1Dodgeland checkBelow cut lineJuneau0.00Below cut line46T ▼4 · Out
42T▼1Independence/Gilmanton checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line46T ▼4 · Out
42T▼1Necedah checkBelow cut lineNecedah0.00Below cut line36 ▲6 · Out
42T▼1Wauzeka-Steuben/Seneca checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line42 – · Out
—Catholic Central checkBurlington0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Iola-Scandinavia checkIola0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Kenosha Christian Life checkKenosha0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 5 (games through Saturday 2026-09-19). 32 of 48 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: McDonell Central Catholic (rank 23, seed 6)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21RegisL4 (D6)0.00—5yes
2026-08-27SpoonerW4.5 (D5)4.504.005yes
2026-09-03Spring ValleyL3.5 (D7)0.00—5yes
2026-09-11Elmwood/Plum CityW3.5 (D7)3.507.005yes
2026-09-18Glenwood CityL3.5 (D7)0.00—5yes

Tier 1 AVG = 8.00 ÷ 5 = 1.600. Tier 2 points = 4.00 + 7.00 = 11.00; opponents’ games = 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 25; Tier 2 AVG = 11.00 ÷ 25 = 0.440. Total = 1.600 + 9 × 0.440 = 5.56 (Tier 3 tie-break 3.96).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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