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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 3 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 6Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Fri, Oct 23 · 4:00 AM CDT

  • Final Finished, with the score
  • Ewert’s pick A guess, not a set matchup
ES pick: Port Washington, 95.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port W…ES 96%8 MerrillEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Luxemburg-Casco, 85.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Luxemb…ES 85%5 Kettle Morai…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Whitefish Bay, 92.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Whitef…ES 92%6 Milwaukee Lu…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Plymouth, 99.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Plymou…ES 99%7 South Milwau…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Port Washington, 71.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port W…ES 71%4 Luxemburg-Ca…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK3 Whitefish BayES pick: Plymouth, 59.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Plymou…ES 59%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Port Washington, 60.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port W…ES 60%2 PlymouthEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: New Berlin West, 98.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Be…ES 99%8 McFarlandEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK4 Mount Horeb/…ES pick: Waterford, 59.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Waterf…ES 59%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Winneconne, 79.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Winnec…ES 80%6 Sauk PrairieEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: La Crosse Logan, 74.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Cro…ES 74%7 OnalaskaEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: New Berlin West, 77.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Be…ES 78%5 WaterfordEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK3 WinneconneES pick: La Crosse Logan, 78.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Cro…ES 78%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: New Berlin West, 57.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Be…ES 57%2 La Crosse Lo…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Pewaukee, 98.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Pewauk…ES 99%8 SpartaEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Baldwin-Woodville, 96.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Baldwi…ES 96%5 PortageEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK3 Milwaukee Ba…ES pick: Catholic Memorial, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Catho…ES 100%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Reedsburg, 99.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Reedsb…ES 99%7 Pius XI Cath…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Pewaukee, 75.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Pewauk…ES 76%4 Baldwin-Wood…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK6 Catholic Mem…ES pick: Reedsburg, 54.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Reedsb…ES 55%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Pewaukee, 77.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Pewauk…ES 78%2 ReedsburgEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: New Berlin Eisenhower, 88.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Be…ES 88%8 Martin LutherEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Wisconsin Lutheran, 64.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Wiscon…ES 64%5 GreendaleEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 97.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Va…ES 98%6 RhinelanderEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Medford, 94.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 MedfordES 94%7 Wauwatosa We…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK1 New Berlin E…ES pick: Wisconsin Lutheran, 51.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Wiscon…ES 51%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 53.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Va…ES 54%2 MedfordEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK4 Wisconsin Lu…ES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 80.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Va…ES 81%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK1 Port Washing…ES pick: New Berlin West, 61.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 New Be…ES 62%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState semifinalES pick: Pewaukee, 75.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Pewauk…ES 76%3 Fox Valley L…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState semifinal1 New Berlin W…ES pick: Pewaukee, 62.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-23T04:54:06.678Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Pewauk…ES 63%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState final · ES pick: PewaukeeRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Division 3 · Week 6 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 6. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 6. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 5: in Martin Luther (34 → 31) · out Waukesha North (30 → 33). Biggest climbs: Wisconsin Lutheran ▲9, Greendale ▲8, New Berlin West ▲7. Biggest drops: Milwaukee Lutheran ▼7, Portage ▼6, Whitefish Bay ▼5.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Pewaukee checkPewaukee27.921-C1 – · 1-C
2–Port Washington checkPort Washington27.381-A2 – · 1-A
3▲7New Berlin West checkNew Berlin24.041-B4 ▼1 · 1-D
4▲5New Berlin Eisenhower checkNew Berlin23.961-D9 ▼5 · 3-C
5▼2Reedsburg checkReedsburg23.132-C7 ▼2 · 2-C
6▼1La Crosse Logan checkLa Crosse22.582-B3 ▲3 · 1-B
7▲1Plymouth checkPlymouth20.632-A10 ▼3 · 3-A
8▼1Medford checkMedford20.382-D8 – · 2-B
9▼5Whitefish Bay checkWhitefish Bay20.083-A5 ▲4 · 2-D
10▲2Winneconne checkWinneconne19.173-B6 ▲4 · 2-A
11▼5Milwaukee Bay View checkMilwaukee18.333-CExcluded
12▼1Fox Valley Lutheran checkAppleton17.463-D11 ▲1 · 3-B
13▲4Baldwin-Woodville checkBaldwin14.964-C17 ▼4 · 5-B
14▲9Wisconsin Lutheran checkMilwaukee14.674-D12 ▲2 · 3-D
15▲1Mount Horeb/Barneveld check14.214-B14 ▲1 · 4-B
16▲4Luxemburg-Casco checkLuxemburg14.214-A15 ▲1 · 4-A
17▲8Greendale checkGreendale13.965-D16 ▲1 · 4-D
18▼3Waterford checkWaterford13.335-B13 ▲5 · 4-C
19▼6Portage checkPortage12.335-C18 ▲1 · 5-C
20▼1Kettle Moraine Lutheran checkJackson11.255-A22 ▼2 · 6-C
21▼7Milwaukee Lutheran checkMilwaukee11.136-A21 – · 6-D
22▼4Rhinelander checkRhinelander10.386-D23 ▼1 · 6-B
23▼1Sauk Prairie checkPrairie du Sac9.506-B25 ▼2 · 7-C
24▼3Catholic Memorial checkWaukesha9.176-C20 ▲4 · 5-D
25▼1Onalaska checkOnalaska8.837-B24 ▲1 · 6-A
26▲2Wauwatosa West checkWauwatosa7.927-D33 ▼7 · Out projected out
27–Pius XI Catholic checkMilwaukee7.377-C32 ▼5 · 8-C
28▼2South Milwaukee checkSouth Milwaukee6.887-A31 ▼3 · 8-A
29–McFarland checkMcFarland6.508-B28 ▲1 · 7-A
30▲1Merrill checkMerrill6.008-A19 ▲11 · 5-A
31▲3Martin Luther checkGreendale5.888-D in34 ▼3 · Out projected out
32–Sparta checkSparta5.638-C35 ▼3 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼3Waukesha North checkBelow cut lineWaukesha5.04Below cut line dropped29 ▲4 · 8-B projected in
34▼1Green Bay West checkBelow cut lineGreen Bay4.92Below cut line27 ▲7 · 7-B projected in
35▲3Stoughton checkBelow cut lineStoughton4.83Below cut line41 ▼6 · Out
36▼1New London checkBelow cut lineNew London4.13Below cut line38 ▼2 · Out
37▲8Milwaukee Washington checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee3.94Below cut lineExcluded
38▼2Wilmot Union checkBelow cut lineWilmot3.67Below cut line26 ▲12 · 7-D projected in
39▲6Whitnall checkBelow cut lineGreenfield3.63Below cut line30 ▲9 · 8-D projected in
40▼3Monroe checkBelow cut lineMonroe2.54Below cut line42 ▼2 · Out
41▼2Shawano checkBelow cut lineShawano2.29Below cut line39 ▲2 · Out
42▼2Lakeland checkBelow cut lineMinocqua2.04Below cut line36 ▲6 · Out
43▼2Hayward/Lac Courte Oreilles checkBelow cut line1.75Below cut line37 ▲6 · Out
44▼2Fort Atkinson checkBelow cut lineFort Atkinson1.08Below cut line43 ▲1 · Out
45▼2Baraboo checkBelow cut lineBaraboo0.92Below cut line40 ▲5 · Out
46▼2Cudahy checkBelow cut lineCudahy0.58Below cut line44 ▲2 · Out
47T▼2Antigo checkBelow cut lineAntigo0.00Below cut line45T ▲2 · Out
47T▼2Milwaukee Vincent checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line45T ▲2 · Out
47T▼2Tomah checkBelow cut lineTomah0.00Below cut line45T ▲2 · Out
47T▼2Waupaca checkBelow cut lineWaupaca0.00Below cut line45T ▲2 · Out
47T▼2West Bend East checkBelow cut lineWest Bend0.00Below cut line45T ▲2 · Out
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 6 (games through Saturday 2026-09-26). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Medford (rank 8, seed 2)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21HolmenL6 (D2)0.00—6yes
2026-08-28OnalaskaL5.5 (D3)0.00—6yes
2026-09-04RhinelanderW5.5 (D3)5.5021.006yes
2026-09-11MerrillW5.5 (D3)5.5019.506yes
2026-09-18Wausau EastW6 (D2)6.0020.506yes
2026-09-25LakelandW5.5 (D3)5.505.506yes

Tier 1 AVG = 22.50 ÷ 6 = 3.750. Tier 2 points = 21.00 + 19.50 + 20.50 + 5.50 = 66.50; opponents’ games = 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 = 36; Tier 2 AVG = 66.50 ÷ 36 = 1.847. Total = 3.750 + 9 × 1.847 = 20.38 (Tier 3 tie-break 4.75).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Confirmed matchups in the bracket open game pages; team pages are linked in the field table and on each game page.

WIAA Football Playoff Brackets: Official and Projected | Ewert Sports | Ewert Sports