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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 1 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 4Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 2:39 PM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: West De Pere, 97.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 98%8 Brookfield EastES pick: Madison Memorial, 51.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Madison Memo…ES 51%5 MiddletonES pick: Racine Case, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Racine CaseES 100%6 Milwaukee Pulaski/Car…ES pick: Hamilton, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 HamiltonES 100%7 Appleton WestES pick: West De Pere, 97.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 98%4 Madison Memorial3 Racine CaseES pick: Hamilton, 76.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 HamiltonES 76%1 West De PereES pick: Hamilton, 54.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 HamiltonES 54%ES pick: Arrowhead, 99.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ArrowheadES 100%8 Milwaukee ReaganES pick: Verona, 80.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 VeronaES 80%5 Sun Prairie EastES pick: Waunakee, 81.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 WaunakeeES 82%6 HudsonES pick: Oconomowoc, 97.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 OconomowocES 97%7 Janesville ParkerES pick: Arrowhead, 93.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ArrowheadES 93%4 VeronaES pick: Waunakee, 62.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 WaunakeeES 63%2 OconomowocES pick: Arrowhead, 75.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ArrowheadES 75%3 WaunakeeES pick: Muskego, 99.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 100%8 Kenosha TremperES pick: Franklin, 76.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 FranklinES 77%5 MarquetteES pick: Indian Trail High School & Academy, 57.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Indian Trail…ES 57%6 HortonvilleES pick: Kenosha Bradford, 99.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Kenosha Brad…ES 100%7 Milwaukee Hamilton/Au…ES pick: Muskego, 85.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 85%4 Franklin3 Indian Trail & Acad.ES pick: Kenosha Bradford, 91.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Kenosha Brad…ES 91%ES pick: Muskego, 94.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 MuskegoES 94%2 Kenosha BradfordES pick: Bay Port, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 99%8 Green Bay Preble4 Wausau WestES pick: Stevens Point Area Senior High, 89.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Stevens Poin…ES 89%ES pick: De Pere, 84.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 De PereES 84%6 D.C. Everest2 Appleton NorthES pick: Chippewa Falls, 72.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.7 Chippewa Fal…ES 73%ES pick: Bay Port, 92.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 92%5 Stevens Point Area Se…3 De PereES pick: Chippewa Falls, 53.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.7 Chippewa Fal…ES 54%ES pick: Bay Port, 91.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 91%7 Chippewa Falls2 HamiltonES pick: Arrowhead, 61.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 ArrowheadES 62%State semifinalES pick: Muskego, 70.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MuskegoES 71%1 Bay PortState semifinal1 ArrowheadES pick: Muskego, 56.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 MuskegoES 56%State final · ES pick: MuskegoRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 1 · Week 4 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 4. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 4. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 3: in Franklin (34 → 14), D.C. Everest (40 → 21), Milwaukee Pulaski/Carmen Southgate (36 → 24), Milwaukee Hamilton/Audubon Technology (45 → 27) · out Fond du Lac (25 → 34), Milwaukee Bradley Tech/Milwaukee Arts (26 → 35), Neenah (27 → 36), Sun Prairie West (30 → 38), Appleton East (31 → 39). Biggest climbs: Franklin ▲20, D.C. Everest ▲19, Milwaukee Hamilton/Audubon Technology ▲18. Biggest drops: Appleton West ▼19, Brookfield East ▼12, Marquette ▼10.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–West De Pere checkDe Pere45.751-A1 – · 1-D
2▲3Bay Port checkGreen Bay34.941-D3 ▼1 · 1-A
3–Muskego checkMuskego34.531-C4 ▼1 · 1-C
4▼2Arrowhead checkHartland31.281-B5 ▼1 · 2-B
5▼1Hamilton checkSussex31.132-A2 ▲3 · 1-B
6▲2Oconomowoc checkOconomowoc26.282-B11 ▼5 · 3-B
7▲4Appleton North checkAppleton22.592-D22 ▼15 · 6-A
8▲2Kenosha Bradford checkKenosha22.472-C14 ▼6 · 4-C
9▲7Waunakee checkWaunakee22.193-B6 ▲3 · 2-A
10▼4Indian Trail High School & Academy checkKenosha22.193-C12 ▼2 · 3-C
11▲1De Pere checkDe Pere22.033-D18 ▼7 · 5-A
12▲2Racine Case checkRacine18.813-A7 ▲5 · 2-C
13▲4Madison Memorial checkMadison18.134-A19 ▼6 · 5-D
14▲20Franklin checkFranklin17.194-C in20 ▼6 · 5-C
15▲7Wausau West checkWausau16.254-D30 ▼15 · 8-A
16▼3Verona checkVerona15.284-B8 ▲8 · 2-D
17▼2Stevens Point Area Senior High checkStevens Point14.915-D9 ▲8 · 3-A
18▼10Marquette checkMilwaukee13.815-C16 ▲2 · 4-D
19▼1Middleton checkMiddleton13.665-A21 ▼2 · 6-B
20▲8Sun Prairie East checkSun Prairie13.415-B26 ▼6 · 7-D
21▲19D.C. Everest checkSchofield13.416-D in28 ▼7 · 7-A
22▼1Hudson checkHudson13.166-B10 ▲12 · 3-D
23–Hortonville checkHortonville12.136-C33 ▼10 · Out projected out
24▲12Milwaukee Pulaski/Carmen Southgate check12.026-A in17 ▲7 · 5-B
25▼5Chippewa Falls checkChippewa Falls11.507-D23 ▲2 · 6-D
26▼19Appleton West checkAppleton11.257-A41 ▼15 · Out projected out
27▲18Milwaukee Hamilton/Audubon Technology check11.227-C in32 ▼5 · 8-C
28▲4Janesville Parker checkJanesville10.287-B31 ▼3 · 8-B
29▼5Green Bay Preble checkGreen Bay9.948-D35 ▼6 · Out projected out
30▼2Kenosha Tremper checkKenosha8.538-C47 ▼17 · Out projected out
31▼12Brookfield East checkBrookfield7.638-A40 ▼9 · Out projected out
32–Milwaukee Reagan checkMilwaukee6.988-B15 ▲17 · 4-B
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▲2Janesville Craig checkBelow cut lineJanesville6.78Below cut line34 ▼1 · Out
34▼9Fond du Lac checkBelow cut lineFond du Lac6.50Below cut line dropped36 ▼2 · Out
35▼9Milwaukee Bradley Tech/Milwaukee Arts checkBelow cut line6.21Below cut line dropped24 ▲11 · 6-C projected in
36T▲9Kimberly checkBelow cut lineKimberly5.28Below cut line29 ▲7 · 8-D projected in
36T▼9Neenah checkBelow cut lineNeenah5.28Below cut line dropped13 ▲23 · 4-A projected in
38▼8Sun Prairie West checkBelow cut lineSun Prairie5.16Below cut line dropped49 ▼11 · Out
39▼8Appleton East checkBelow cut lineAppleton5.00Below cut line dropped46 ▼7 · Out
40▼2Mukwonago checkBelow cut lineMukwonago5.00Below cut line48 ▼8 · Out
41▼1Milwaukee Riverside/Golda Meir checkBelow cut line4.88Below cut line25 ▲16 · 7-C projected in
42▼4Madison West checkBelow cut lineMadison4.72Below cut line43 ▼1 · Out
43▼3Oshkosh West checkBelow cut lineOshkosh4.59Below cut line27 ▲16 · 7-B projected in
44▼7Sheboygan North checkBelow cut lineSheboygan4.38Below cut line45 ▼1 · Out
45–Eau Claire North checkBelow cut lineEau Claire1.63Below cut line39 ▲6 · Out
46T▼1Badger checkBelow cut lineLake Geneva1.50Below cut line42 ▲4 · Out
46T▼6Madison La Follette checkBelow cut lineMadison1.50Below cut line38 ▲8 · Out
46T▼6Oak Creek checkBelow cut lineOak Creek1.50Below cut line37 ▲9 · Out
49T▼4Eau Claire Memorial checkBelow cut lineEau Claire0.00Below cut line50T ▼1 · Out
49T▼4Madison East checkBelow cut lineMadison0.00Below cut line50T ▼1 · Out
49T▼4Manitowoc Lincoln checkBelow cut lineManitowoc0.00Below cut line44 ▲5 · Out
—Shorewood checkShorewood0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 4 (games through Saturday 2026-09-12). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Neenah (rank 36T, seed out)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Notre DameL6 (D2)0.00—4yes
2026-08-28ArrowheadL6.5 (D1)0.00—4yes
2026-09-03Appleton EastW6.5 (D1)6.506.504yes
2026-09-11KaukaunaL6 (D2)0.00—4yes

Tier 1 AVG = 6.50 ÷ 4 = 1.625. Tier 2 points = 6.50 = 6.50; opponents’ games = 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 16; Tier 2 AVG = 6.50 ÷ 16 = 0.406. Total = 1.625 + 9 × 0.406 = 5.28 (Tier 3 tie-break 3.38).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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