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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 5 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 5Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 11:44 PM CDT

  • Final Finished, with the score
  • Ewert’s pick A guess, not a set matchup
ES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 94.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Lake C…ES 94%8 TomahawkEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK4 Brookfield A…ES pick: Mayville, 99.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Mayvi…ES 100%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Chilton, 64.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 ChiltonES 64%6 Wittenberg-B…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 98.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Durand…ES 99%7 WestfieldEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 57.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Lake C…ES 57%5 MayvilleEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK3 ChiltonES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 92.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Durand…ES 92%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 58.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Lake C…ES 59%2 Durand-Arkan…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Amherst, 99.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Amher…ES 100%8 SpoonerEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Elk Mound, 73.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Elk Mo…ES 73%5 AmeryEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Grantsburg, 97.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Grants…ES 98%6 Spencer/Colu…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Saint Croix Falls, 99.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Saint…ES 99%7 Neillsville/…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Amherst, 86.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 86%4 Elk MoundEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Grantsburg, 62.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Grants…ES 62%2 Saint Croix…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Amherst, 77.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 78%3 GrantsburgEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: New Glarus, 99.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New G…ES 100%8 WautomaEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK4 ArcadiaES pick: Winnebago Lutheran, 53.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Winneb…ES 54%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: New Holstein, 88.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 New Ho…ES 88%6 PeshtigoEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Darlington, 99.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Darlin…ES 99%7 Milwaukee Ac…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: New Glarus, 86.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Gl…ES 86%5 Winnebago Lu…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK3 New HolsteinES pick: Darlington, 98.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Darlin…ES 98%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK1 New GlarusES pick: Darlington, 85.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Darlin…ES 85%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Racine Lutheran, 73.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine…ES 73%8 Watertown Lu…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK4 University S…ES pick: Ozaukee/Random Lake, 70.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Ozauke…ES 71%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Kiel, 67.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 KielES 68%6 OostburgEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Brillion, 99.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Brill…ES 100%7 Milwaukee No…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Racine Lutheran, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine…ES 99%5 Ozaukee/Rand…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK3 KielES pick: Brillion, 85.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Brilli…ES 85%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Racine Lutheran, 74.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine…ES 75%2 BrillionEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK1 Lake Country…ES pick: Amherst, 79.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 AmherstES 79%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState semifinalES pick: Darlington, 88.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 Darlin…ES 88%1 Racine Luthe…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState semifinal1 AmherstES pick: Darlington, 70.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 Darlin…ES 71%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState final · ES pick: DarlingtonRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Division 5 · Week 5 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 5. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 5. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 4: in Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning (42 → 27), Tomahawk (35 → 30) · out East Troy (30 → 37), Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau (31 → 33). Biggest climbs: Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning ▲15, University School of Milwaukee ▲9, Arcadia ▲8. Biggest drops: Spencer/Columbus Catholic ▼11, Oostburg ▼11, Brookfield Academy ▼7.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲3New Glarus checkNew Glarus24.441-C4 ▼3 · 1-C
2▼1Lake Country Lutheran checkHartland22.801-A8 ▼6 · 2-D
3▲2Amherst checkAmherst21.561-B3 – · 1-A
4▼1Racine Lutheran checkRacine21.161-D1 ▲3 · 1-D
5▼3Darlington checkDarlington20.602-C2 ▲3 · 1-B
6▲1Durand-Arkansaw checkDurand19.682-A5 ▲1 · 2-B
7▲6Saint Croix Falls checkSaint Croix Falls18.902-B6 ▲1 · 2-C
8▲1Brillion checkBrillion16.242-D9 ▼1 · 3-A
9▼3Grantsburg checkGrantsburg15.083-B7 ▲2 · 2-A
10▲6New Holstein checkNew Holstein14.923-C15 ▼5 · 4-C
11▼1Kiel checkKiel13.953-D16 ▼5 · 4-D
12▲2Chilton checkChilton13.303-A14 ▼2 · 4-A
13▲8Arcadia checkArcadia13.004-C23 ▼10 · 6-B
14▲5Elk Mound checkElk Mound12.324-B13 ▲1 · 4-B
15▼7Brookfield Academy checkBrookfield11.784-A27 ▼12 · 7-D
16▲9University School of Milwaukee checkMilwaukee11.024-D22 ▼6 · 6-D
17▼2Amery checkAmery10.905-B21 ▼4 · 6-C
18▲5Winnebago Lutheran checkFond du Lac10.885-C18 – · 5-C
19▼2Ozaukee/Random Lake check10.505-D26 ▼7 · 7-B
20▼2Mayville checkMayville10.085-A12 ▲8 · 3-C
21▲8Wittenberg-Birnamwood checkWittenberg9.906-A31 ▼10 · 8-A
22▼11Spencer/Columbus Catholic check9.866-B25 ▼3 · 7-A
23▼11Oostburg checkOostburg8.466-D28 ▼5 · 7-C
24–Peshtigo checkPeshtigo7.926-C20 ▲4 · 5-A
25▼5Milwaukee Academy of Science checkMilwaukee7.587-C19 ▲6 · 5-D
26–Westfield checkWestfield5.847-A17 ▲9 · 5-B
27▲15Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning check5.507-D in10 ▲17 · 3-D
28▼6Neillsville/Granton check5.467-B36 ▼8 · Out projected out
29▲3Watertown Luther Prep checkWatertown5.108-D11 ▲18 · 3-B
30▲5Tomahawk checkTomahawk4.188-A in24 ▲6 · 6-A
31▼4Wautoma checkWautoma3.968-C37 ▼6 · Out projected out
32▼4Spooner checkSpooner3.688-B43 ▼11 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼2Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau checkBelow cut lineGalesville3.68Below cut line dropped33 – · Out
34▲1Northland Pines checkBelow cut lineEagle River3.42Below cut line35 ▼1 · Out
35▲7Bloomer checkBelow cut lineBloomer2.72Below cut line30 ▲5 · 8-C projected in
36▲6Obama SCTE checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee2.50Below cut line34 ▲2 · Out
37▼7East Troy checkBelow cut lineEast Troy2.26Below cut line dropped38 ▼1 · Out
38▼5Kingdom Prep Lutheran checkBelow cut lineWauwatosa2.00Below cut line41 ▼3 · Out
39▼5Dodgeville checkBelow cut lineDodgeville1.80Below cut line29 ▲10 · 8-B projected in
40T▼3Omro checkBelow cut lineOmro1.00Below cut line44T ▼4 · Out
40T▼3Prescott checkBelow cut linePrescott1.00Below cut line44T ▼4 · Out
42T▼3Richland Center checkBelow cut lineRichland Center0.90Below cut line42 – · Out
42T▼3Sturgeon Bay checkBelow cut lineSturgeon Bay0.90Below cut line46T ▼4 · Out
44▼3Parkview/Albany checkBelow cut line0.70Below cut line40 ▲4 · Out
45T▼3Adams-Friendship checkBelow cut lineAdams0.00Below cut line48T ▼3 · Out
45T▼3Brodhead/Juda checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line46T ▼1 · Out
45T▼3Clintonville checkBelow cut lineClintonville0.00Below cut line48T ▼3 · Out
45T▼3Columbus checkBelow cut lineColumbus0.00Below cut line32 ▲13 · 8-D projected in
45T▼3River Valley checkBelow cut lineSpring Green0.00Below cut line48T ▼3 · Out
45T▼3Southwestern/East Dubuque (IL) checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line39 ▲6 · Out
45T▼3Viroqua checkBelow cut lineViroqua0.00Below cut line48T ▼3 · Out
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 5 (games through Saturday 2026-09-19). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Obama SCTE (rank 36, seed out)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-09-04Fuller Collegiate AcademyL (forfeit)5 (D4)0.00—4yes. Forfeit loss.
2026-09-17Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong LearningL (Seeding Only)4.5 (D5)———Not counted: a replacement game that was not won, so the forfeit win that week stands.
2026-09-18Milwaukee MadisonW (forfeit)5 (D4)5.000.001yes. Forfeit win: the loser's full value.

Tier 1 AVG = 5.00 ÷ 2 = 2.500. Tier 2 points = 0.00 = 0.00; opponents’ games = 4 + 1 = 5; Tier 2 AVG = 0.00 ÷ 5 = 0.000. Total = 2.500 + 9 × 0.000 = 2.50.

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Confirmed matchups in the bracket open game pages; team pages are linked in the field table and on each game page.

WIAA Football Playoff Brackets: Official and Projected | Ewert Sports | Ewert Sports