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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 5 OFFICIAL

WIAA official bracket, released October 17, 2026Next: Level 1, Fri, Oct 23 · 7 PMEwert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 5:19 PM CDT

  • Final Finished, with the score
  • Upcoming Both teams set; day and site on the card
  • Ewert’s pick A guess, not a set matchup
Racine Lutheran vs Columbus · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at Racine LutheranES pick: Racine Lutheran, 96.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine…ES 96%8 ColumbusFri 7 PM · @ Racine LutheranFri 7 PM · @ Racine Luth…Kiel vs Milwaukee Academy of Science · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at KielES pick: Kiel, 60.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 KielES 61%5 Milwaukee Ac…Fri 7 PM · @ KielFri 7 PM · @ KielMilwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning vs University School of Milwaukee · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning3 Milwaukee No…ES pick: University School of Milwaukee, 66.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Univer…ES 67%Fri 7 PM · @ Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong LearningFri 7 PM · @ Milwaukee N…Lake Country Lutheran vs Brookfield Academy · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at Lake Country LutheranES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 99.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Lake…ES 100%7 Brookfield A…Fri 7 PM · @ Lake Country LutheranFri 7 PM · @ Lake Countr…ES pick: Racine Lutheran, 93.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine…ES 94%4 KielEWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/30EWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/306 University S…ES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 99.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Lake…ES 100%EWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/30EWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/30ES pick: Racine Lutheran, 58.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine…ES 59%2 Lake Country…EWERT’S PICK · Fri 11/6EWERT’S PICK · Fri 11/6New Glarus vs Bloomer · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at New GlarusES pick: New Glarus, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Gl…ES 99%8 BloomerFri 7 PM · @ New GlarusFri 7 PM · @ New GlarusChilton vs Peshtigo · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at ChiltonES pick: Chilton, 73.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 ChiltonES 73%5 PeshtigoFri 7 PM · @ ChiltonFri 7 PM · @ ChiltonWatertown Luther Prep vs Arcadia · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at Watertown Luther PrepES pick: Watertown Luther Prep, 76.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Watert…ES 76%6 ArcadiaFri 7 PM · @ Watertown Luther PrepFri 7 PM · @ Watertown L…Saint Croix Falls vs Ozaukee/Random Lake · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at Saint Croix FallsES pick: Saint Croix Falls, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Saint…ES 98%7 Ozaukee/Rand…Fri 7 PM · @ Saint Croix FallsFri 7 PM · @ Saint Croix…ES pick: New Glarus, 95.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Gl…ES 95%4 ChiltonEWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/30EWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/303 Watertown Lu…ES pick: Saint Croix Falls, 60.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Saint…ES 60%EWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/30EWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/30ES pick: New Glarus, 71.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New Gl…ES 71%2 Saint Croix…EWERT’S PICK · Fri 11/6EWERT’S PICK · Fri 11/6Darlington vs Dodgeville · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at DarlingtonES pick: Darlington, 99.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Darlin…ES 99%8 DodgevilleFri 7 PM · @ DarlingtonFri 7 PM · @ DarlingtonNew Holstein vs Winnebago Lutheran · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at New Holstein4 New HolsteinES pick: Winnebago Lutheran, 51.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Winneb…ES 51%Fri 7 PM · @ New HolsteinFri 7 PM · @ New HolsteinBrillion vs Tomahawk · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at BrillionES pick: Brillion, 88.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Brilli…ES 89%6 TomahawkFri 7 PM · @ BrillionFri 7 PM · @ BrillionDurand-Arkansaw vs Oostburg · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at Durand-ArkansawES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 94.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Durand…ES 95%7 OostburgFri 7 PM · @ Durand-ArkansawFri 7 PM · @ Durand-Arka…ES pick: Darlington, 97.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Darlin…ES 98%5 Winnebago Lu…EWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/30EWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/303 BrillionES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 66.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Durand…ES 67%EWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/30EWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/30ES pick: Darlington, 92.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Darlin…ES 93%2 Durand-Arkan…EWERT’S PICK · Fri 11/6EWERT’S PICK · Fri 11/6Amherst vs Wittenberg-Birnamwood · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at AmherstES pick: Amherst, 98.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 99%8 Wittenberg-B…Fri 7 PM · @ AmherstFri 7 PM · @ AmherstElk Mound vs Westfield · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at Elk MoundES pick: Elk Mound, 98.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Elk Mo…ES 99%5 WestfieldFri 7 PM · @ Elk MoundFri 7 PM · @ Elk MoundMayville vs Amery · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at MayvilleES pick: Mayville, 77.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Mayvil…ES 77%6 AmeryFri 7 PM · @ MayvilleFri 7 PM · @ MayvilleGrantsburg vs Spencer/Columbus Catholic · Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · at GrantsburgES pick: Grantsburg, 97.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Grants…ES 98%7 Spencer/Colu…Fri 7 PM · @ GrantsburgFri 7 PM · @ GrantsburgES pick: Amherst, 86.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 86%4 Elk MoundEWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/30EWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/303 MayvilleES pick: Grantsburg, 63.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Grants…ES 63%EWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/30EWERT’S PICK · Fri 10/30ES pick: Amherst, 77.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 78%2 GrantsburgEWERT’S PICK · Fri 11/6EWERT’S PICK · Fri 11/61 Racine Luthe…ES pick: New Glarus, 53.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 New Gl…ES 54%EWERT’S PICK · Fri 11/13EWERT’S PICK · Fri 11/13State semifinalES pick: Darlington, 70.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Darlin…ES 71%1 AmherstEWERT’S PICK · Fri 11/13EWERT’S PICK · Fri 11/13State semifinal1 New GlarusES pick: Darlington, 86.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Darlin…ES 87%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState final · ES pick: DarlingtonLevel 1Fri, Oct 23 · 7 PMLevel 1Fri, Oct 23 · 7 PMLevel 2Fri, Oct 30 · 7 PMLevel 2Fri, Oct 30 · 7 PMLevel 3Fri, Nov 6 · 7 PMLevel 3Fri, Nov 6 · 7 PMLevel 4Fri, Nov 13 · 7 PMLevel 4Fri, Nov 13 · 7 PMRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Division 5 · Week 9 field and cut line

Table-only view →

Since week 8: in Dodgeville (38 → 29) · out Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau (32 → 33). Biggest climbs: Dodgeville ▲9, New Holstein ▲5, Peshtigo ▲5. Biggest drops: Arcadia ▼6, University School of Milwaukee ▼4, Ozaukee/Random Lake ▼3.

The seed column is WIAA’s. Rank, totals and the cut line are still our unofficial numbers, so a team can sit on the other side of our line from WIAA’s field.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsWIAA Seed
1–Racine Lutheran checkRacine26.381-A
2–Darlington checkDarlington26.331-C
3–Amherst checkAmherst23.331-D
4–New Glarus checkNew Glarus21.501-B
5–Durand-Arkansaw checkDurand19.392-C
6▲1Saint Croix Falls checkSaint Croix Falls17.782-B
7▼1Grantsburg checkGrantsburg17.062-D
8▲1Lake Country Lutheran checkHartland16.222-A
9▼1Brillion checkBrillion15.093-C
10–Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning check14.403-A
11▲1Watertown Luther Prep checkWatertown14.393-B
12▼1Mayville checkMayville13.113-D
13▲1Elk Mound checkElk Mound11.834-D
14▼1Chilton checkChilton11.504-B
15▲5New Holstein checkNew Holstein11.504-C
16▼1Kiel checkKiel11.394-A
17▲2Westfield checkWestfield10.835-D
18▼2Winnebago Lutheran checkFond du Lac10.615-C
19▲2Milwaukee Academy of Science checkMilwaukee10.285-A
20▲5Peshtigo checkPeshtigo9.615-B
21▲1Amery checkAmery9.566-D
22▼4University School of Milwaukee checkMilwaukee8.596-A
23▼6Arcadia checkArcadia8.396-B
24▲2Tomahawk checkTomahawk7.726-C
25▼1Spencer/Columbus Catholic check7.567-D
26▼3Ozaukee/Random Lake check7.567-B
27▲1Brookfield Academy checkBrookfield6.967-A
28▼1Oostburg checkOostburg6.337-C
29▲9Dodgeville checkDodgeville5.898-C in
30–Bloomer checkBloomer5.228-B
31–Wittenberg-Birnamwood checkWittenberg5.118-D
32▼3Columbus checkColumbus5.008-A
Our unofficial cut line · top 32 by our numbers
33▼1Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau checkBelow cut lineGalesville4.50Not in WIAA field dropped
34▲2Obama SCTE checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee4.04Not in WIAA field
35▼1Northland Pines checkBelow cut lineEagle River3.78Not in WIAA field
36▼3Neillsville/Granton checkBelow cut line3.67Not in WIAA field
37▼2Wautoma checkBelow cut lineWautoma3.56Not in WIAA field
38▼1East Troy checkBelow cut lineEast Troy3.00Not in WIAA field
39▲6Southwestern/East Dubuque (IL) checkBelow cut line2.72Not in WIAA field
40–Parkview/Albany checkBelow cut line2.72Not in WIAA field
41▼2Kingdom Prep Lutheran checkBelow cut lineWauwatosa2.12Not in WIAA field
42▼1Richland Center checkBelow cut lineRichland Center2.00Not in WIAA field
43▼1Spooner checkBelow cut lineSpooner1.33Not in WIAA field
44T▼1Omro checkBelow cut lineOmro0.56Not in WIAA field
44T▼1Prescott checkBelow cut linePrescott0.56Not in WIAA field
46T▲1Brodhead/Juda checkBelow cut line0.50Not in WIAA field
46T▼1Sturgeon Bay checkBelow cut lineSturgeon Bay0.50Not in WIAA field
48T▼1Adams-Friendship checkBelow cut lineAdams0.00Not in WIAA field
48T▼1Clintonville checkBelow cut lineClintonville0.00Not in WIAA field
48T▼1River Valley checkBelow cut lineSpring Green0.00Not in WIAA field
48T▼1Viroqua checkBelow cut lineViroqua0.00Not in WIAA field
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————Unverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————Unverified

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

When the games are played. Level 1: Friday, October 23, 7:00 PM · Level 2: Friday, October 30, 7:00 PM · Level 3: Friday, November 6, 7:00 PM · Level 4: Friday, November 13, 7:00 PM. Days and times are WIAA’s as of October 17 (Central time); WIAA’s bracket page has any change.

This is WIAA’s bracket, released October 17, 2026 (WIAA’s bracket page). The region letters A to D are ours, in the order of WIAA’s page; WIAA prints none. See our own projection through week 9 →

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Official bracket, unofficial table. The bracket above and the seeds are WIAA’s, as published October 17, 2026. Everything else on this page (rank, totals, the cut line, the weekly movement and the worked example) is still our own calculation, described below.

How our projection was made. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: WIAA's official bracket where stored, projected elsewhere. Through week 9 (games dated Friday 2026-10-16 or earlier; WIAA deadline: completion before 11:59 p.m. Central; stored dates do not establish finish times). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Obama SCTE (rank 34, seed out)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-09-04Fuller Collegiate AcademyL (forfeit)5 (D4)0.00—8yes. Forfeit loss.
2026-09-17Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong LearningL (Seeding Only)4.5 (D5)———Not counted: a replacement game that was not won, so the forfeit win that week stands.
2026-09-18Milwaukee MadisonW (forfeit)5 (D4)5.000.005yes. Forfeit win: the loser's full value.
2026-09-24Milwaukee WashingtonL (Seeding Only)5.5 (D3)0.00—7yes. Marked Seeding Only, but neither side had a forfeit that week: counted as an ordinary game.
2026-10-03Milwaukee SouthW (forfeit)6 (D2)6.005.005yes. Forfeit win: the loser's full value.
2026-10-09Milwaukee WashingtonL5.5 (D3)0.00—7yes
2026-10-16Milwaukee VincentW (forfeit)5.5 (D3)5.500.003yes. Forfeit win: the loser's full value.
2026-10-16Milwaukee Academy of ScienceL (Seeding Only)4.5 (D5)———Not counted: a replacement game that was not won, so the forfeit win that week stands.

Tier 1 AVG = 16.50 ÷ 6 = 2.750. Tier 2 points = 0.00 + 5.00 + 0.00 = 5.00; opponents’ games = 8 + 5 + 7 + 5 + 7 + 3 = 35; Tier 2 AVG = 5.00 ÷ 35 = 0.143. Total = 2.750 + 9 × 0.143 = 4.04.

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Confirmed matchups in the bracket open game pages; team pages are linked in the field table and on each game page.

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