ES projected final field · Football Division 3 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection of the final fieldEwert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 6:06 PM CDT

No future qualifying games remain · 0 picks · partial: unresolved data can change the field · UNOFFICIAL.

Division 3 · Projected final field and cut line

Ordered by our projected final standings if the remaining ES picks win. Records, totals, seeds and the cut line use that same scenario; arrows compare with reported Week 9 standings. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank	+/−	Team	City	W-L	Total	Tier 1 AVG	Tier 2 AVG	Tier 2 Wins	Projected Seed
1	–	Pewaukee check	Pewaukee	9-0	31.72	5.67	2.90	42	1-C
2	–	Port Washington check	Port Washington	9-0	28.94	5.72	2.58	38	1-A
3	–	La Crosse Logan check	La Crosse	9-0	28.00	5.61	2.49	37	1-B
4	–	New Berlin West check	New Berlin	7-2	23.72	4.50	2.14	30	1-D
5	–	Whitefish Bay check	Whitefish Bay	7-2	21.06	4.56	1.83	25	2-D
6	–	Winneconne check	Winneconne	9-0	20.83	5.17	1.74	27	2-A
7	–	Reedsburg check	Reedsburg	7-2	20.56	4.39	1.80	26	2-C
8	–	Medford check	Medford	7-2	19.28	4.17	1.68	26	2-B
9	–	New Berlin Eisenhower check	New Berlin	6-3	19.22	3.67	1.73	25	3-C
10	–	Plymouth check	Plymouth	7-2	17.94	4.33	1.51	22	3-A
11	–	Fox Valley Lutheran check	Appleton	7-2	17.94	3.94	1.56	25	3-B
12	–	Wisconsin Lutheran check	Milwaukee	5-4	17.83	3.28	1.62	22	3-D
13	–	Waterford check	Waterford	6-3	14.94	3.94	1.22	17	4-C
14	–	Mount Horeb/Barneveld check		6-3	14.83	3.72	1.23	18	4-B
15	–	Luxemburg-Casco check	Luxemburg	6-3	14.72	3.33	1.27	20	4-A
16	–	Greendale check	Greendale	6-3	14.61	3.78	1.20	17	4-D
17	–	Baldwin-Woodville check	Baldwin	7-2	12.83	3.83	1.00	17	5-B
18	–	Portage check	Portage	5-4	12.56	2.78	1.09	18	5-C
19	–	Merrill check	Merrill	6-3	11.50	3.28	0.91	14	5-A
20	–	Catholic Memorial check	Waukesha	4-5	10.67	2.83	0.87	12	5-D
21	–	Milwaukee Lutheran check	Milwaukee	5-4	10.11	3.11	0.78	11	6-D
22	–	Kettle Moraine Lutheran check	Jackson	4-5	10.06	2.22	0.87	14	6-C
23	–	Rhinelander check	Rhinelander	5-4	9.72	2.94	0.75	13	6-B
24	–	Onalaska check	Onalaska	4-5	9.50	2.44	0.78	12	6-A
25	–	Sauk Prairie check	Prairie du Sac	5-4	9.22	3.06	0.69	10	7-C
26	–	Wilmot Union check	Wilmot	5-4	9.17	3.00	0.69	10	7-D
27	–	Green Bay West check	Green Bay	6-3	9.11	3.83	0.59	8	7-B
28	–	McFarland check	McFarland	4-5	7.50	2.39	0.57	9	7-A
29	–	Waukesha North check	Waukesha	2-7	7.00	1.22	0.64	9	8-B
30	–	Whitnall check	Greenfield	3-6	6.44	1.94	0.50	7	8-D
31	–	South Milwaukee check	South Milwaukee	4-5	6.22	2.67	0.40	6	8-A
32	–	Pius XI Catholic check	Milwaukee	5-4	5.90	2.50	0.38	7	8-C
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33	–	Wauwatosa West checkBelow cut line	Wauwatosa	2-7	5.83	1.28	0.51	7	Below cut line
34	–	Martin Luther checkBelow cut line	Greendale	4-5	5.39	2.44	0.33	5	Below cut line
35	–	Sparta checkBelow cut line	Sparta	3-6	5.06	1.67	0.38	7	Below cut line
36	–	Lakeland checkBelow cut line	Minocqua	3-6	3.78	1.78	0.22	4	Below cut line
37	–	Hayward/Lac Courte Oreilles checkBelow cut line		3-6	3.22	1.39	0.20	4	Below cut line
38	–	New London checkBelow cut line	New London	3-6	3.06	1.83	0.14	2	Below cut line
39	–	Shawano checkBelow cut line	Shawano	2-7	3.00	1.22	0.20	3	Below cut line
40	–	Baraboo checkBelow cut line	Baraboo	2-7	2.89	1.22	0.19	3	Below cut line
41	–	Stoughton checkBelow cut line	Stoughton	2-7	2.56	1.22	0.15	2	Below cut line
42	–	Monroe checkBelow cut line	Monroe	1-8	1.33	0.61	0.08	1	Below cut line
43	–	Fort Atkinson checkBelow cut line	Fort Atkinson	1-8	0.72	0.72	0.00	0	Below cut line
44	–	Cudahy checkBelow cut line	Cudahy	1-8	0.39	0.39	0.00	0	Below cut line
45T	–	Antigo checkBelow cut line	Antigo	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
45T	–	Milwaukee Vincent checkBelow cut line	Milwaukee	0-3	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
45T	–	Tomah checkBelow cut line	Tomah	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
45T	–	Waupaca checkBelow cut line	Waupaca	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
45T	–	West Bend East checkBelow cut line	West Bend	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
—		Milwaukee Bay View check	Milwaukee	5-4	12.74	3.22	1.06	15	Excluded
—		Milwaukee Washington check	Milwaukee	3-4	8.75	2.00	0.75	6	Excluded
—		Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified		0-0	—	—	—	—	Unverified
—		Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified		0-0	—	—	—	—	Unverified

Remaining-game assumptions

0 ES picks; 0 future games without a qualified pick; 1 other games awaiting a confirmed result or schedule; 1 held games. Neither the field nor the pairings are official.

The same current ES pick is used for both teams, then every opponent's points and games are recomputed through Friday 2026-10-16. No predicted score or result is saved. Forecasts remain fixed for this scenario; they refresh after actual results through the normal rating update.

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. This final-field scenario adds the qualified ES picks above to actual results; it does not predict a completed result or the likelihood of this exact combined bracket. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the actual results plus hypothetical winners, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 9 (games dated Friday 2026-10-16 or earlier; WIAA deadline: completion before 11:59 p.m. Central; stored dates do not establish finish times). 32 of 49 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Onalaska (rank 24, seed 6)

Date	Opponent	Result	Opponent’s value	Tier 1 earned	Opp. Tier 1 points	Opp. games	Counts?
2026-08-21	West Salem	L	5 (D4)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-08-28	Medford	W	5.5 (D3)	5.50	37.50	9	yes
2026-09-04	Holmen	L	6 (D2)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-09-11	Reedsburg	L	5.5 (D3)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-09-17	Baraboo	W	5.5 (D3)	5.50	11.00	9	yes
2026-09-25	La Crosse Logan	L	5.5 (D3)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-10-02	Sparta	W	5.5 (D3)	5.50	15.00	9	yes
2026-10-09	Tomah	W	5.5 (D3)	5.50	0.00	9	yes
2026-10-16	La Crosse Central	L	6 (D2)	0.00	—	9	yes

Tier 1 AVG = 22.00 ÷ 9 = 2.444. Tier 2 points = 37.50 + 11.00 + 15.00 + 0.00 = 63.50; opponents’ games = 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 81; Tier 2 AVG = 63.50 ÷ 81 = 0.784. Total = 2.444 + 9 × 0.784 = 9.50 (Tier 3 tie-break 5.04).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.