ES projected final field · Football Division 2 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection of the final fieldEwert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 12:22 PM CDT

No future qualifying games remain · 0 picks · partial: unresolved data can change the field · UNOFFICIAL.

Division 2 · Projected final field and cut line

Ordered by our projected final standings if the remaining ES picks win. Records, totals, seeds and the cut line use that same scenario; arrows compare with reported Week 9 standings. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank	+/−	Team	City	W-L	Total	Tier 1 AVG	Tier 2 AVG	Tier 2 Wins	Projected Seed
1	–	New Richmond check	New Richmond	9-0	33.17	6.22	2.99	39	1-B
2	–	Notre Dame check	Green Bay	9-0	32.00	6.11	2.88	38	1-C
3	–	Union Grove check	Union Grove	9-0	29.28	5.89	2.60	36	1-D
4	–	Monona Grove check	Monona	8-1	24.11	5.56	2.06	27	1-A
5	–	Elkhorn check	Elkhorn	8-1	23.89	5.17	2.08	30	2-A
6	–	Homestead check	Mequon	8-1	23.83	5.28	2.06	28	2-D
7	–	Beaver Dam check	Beaver Dam	8-1	21.56	4.89	1.85	27	2-B
8	–	Kaukauna check	Kaukauna	7-2	21.39	5.00	1.82	23	2-C
9	–	Holmen check	Holmen	7-2	21.22	4.28	1.88	28	3-B
10	–	Pulaski check	Pulaski	7-2	20.89	4.94	1.77	23	3-C
11	–	West Bend West check	West Bend	7-2	20.28	4.22	1.78	27	3-D
12	–	Greenfield check	Greenfield	7-2	18.72	4.28	1.60	23	3-A
13	–	Waukesha South check	Waukesha	6-3	17.67	3.78	1.54	22	4-D
14	–	La Crosse Central check	La Crosse	7-2	17.17	4.28	1.43	22	4-B
15	–	Menasha check	Menasha	7-2	17.17	4.61	1.40	19	4-C
16	–	Wausau East check	Wausau	7-2	16.33	4.11	1.36	21	4-A
17	–	Wauwatosa East check	Wauwatosa	5-4	15.89	3.33	1.40	20	5-D
18	–	Marshfield check	Marshfield	6-3	15.22	4.17	1.23	16	5-A
19	–	Waukesha West check	Waukesha	5-4	14.06	3.33	1.19	16	5-B
20	–	Menomonee Falls check	Menomonee Falls	4-5	13.94	2.61	1.26	18	5-C
21	–	River Falls check	River Falls	5-4	13.83	3.44	1.15	15	6-B
22	–	Ashwaubenon check	Ashwaubenon	5-4	13.67	3.50	1.13	15	6-C
23	–	Slinger check	Slinger	5-4	13.33	3.33	1.11	15	6-D
24	–	Grafton check	Grafton	5-4	12.33	3.11	1.02	15	6-A
25	–	Oshkosh North check	Oshkosh	5-4	11.94	3.39	0.95	13	7-C
26	–	Brookfield Central check	Brookfield	3-6	10.94	2.06	0.99	13	7-B
27	–	Westosha Central check	Salem	4-5	10.00	2.67	0.81	11	7-D
28	–	Burlington check	Burlington	4-5	9.94	2.72	0.80	11	7-A
29	–	Germantown check	Germantown	4-5	9.67	2.72	0.77	10	8-C
30	–	Milwaukee King check	Milwaukee	4-5	9.50	2.78	0.75	10	8-D
31	–	Milton check	Milton	4-5	8.78	2.72	0.67	9	8-A
32	–	DeForest check	DeForest	3-6	6.06	2.06	0.44	6	8-B
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33	–	Oregon checkBelow cut line	Oregon	4-5	5.83	2.61	0.36	5	Below cut line
34	–	Menomonie checkBelow cut line	Menomonie	3-6	5.50	2.00	0.39	5	Below cut line
35	–	Racine Horlick checkBelow cut line	Racine	2-7	5.33	1.39	0.44	6	Below cut line
36	–	Nicolet checkBelow cut line	Glendale	3-6	5.28	1.83	0.38	6	Below cut line
37	–	Superior checkBelow cut line	Superior	2-7	3.56	1.44	0.23	3	Below cut line
38	–	Hartford Union checkBelow cut line	Hartford	1-8	3.28	0.67	0.29	4	Below cut line
39	–	Wisconsin Rapids Lincoln checkBelow cut line	Wisconsin Rapids	2-7	2.83	1.39	0.16	2	Below cut line
40	–	Sheboygan South checkBelow cut line	Sheboygan	2-7	2.78	1.39	0.15	2	Below cut line
41	–	Green Bay Southwest checkBelow cut line	Green Bay	2-7	2.72	1.33	0.15	2	Below cut line
42	–	West Allis Central checkBelow cut line	West Allis	2-7	2.67	1.17	0.17	3	Below cut line
43	–	Watertown checkBelow cut line	Watertown	1-8	2.17	0.72	0.16	2	Below cut line
44	–	Rice Lake checkBelow cut line	Rice Lake	1-8	2.11	0.67	0.16	2	Below cut line
45	–	Cedarburg checkBelow cut line	Cedarburg	2-7	2.00	1.33	0.07	1	Below cut line
46	–	West Allis Hale checkBelow cut line	West Allis	1-8	1.83	0.67	0.13	2	Below cut line
47T	–	Beloit Memorial checkBelow cut line	Beloit	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
47T	–	Green Bay East checkBelow cut line	Green Bay	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
47T	–	Kettle Moraine checkBelow cut line	Wales	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
47T	–	Racine Park checkBelow cut line	Racine	0-9	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Below cut line
—		Milwaukee South check	Milwaukee	1-4	1.00	1.00	0.00	0	Excluded
—		Milwaukee Marshall check	Milwaukee	0-7	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	Excluded
—		Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified		0-0	—	—	—	—	Unverified
—		Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified		0-0	—	—	—	—	Unverified

Remaining-game assumptions

0 ES picks; 0 future games without a qualified pick; 1 other games awaiting a confirmed result or schedule; 1 held games. Neither the field nor the pairings are official.

The same current ES pick is used for both teams, then every opponent's points and games are recomputed through Friday 2026-10-16. No predicted score or result is saved. Forecasts remain fixed for this scenario; they refresh after actual results through the normal rating update.

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. This final-field scenario adds the qualified ES picks above to actual results; it does not predict a completed result or the likelihood of this exact combined bracket. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the actual results plus hypothetical winners, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 9 (games dated Friday 2026-10-16 or earlier; WIAA deadline: completion before 11:59 p.m. Central; stored dates do not establish finish times). 32 of 50 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Oregon (rank 33, seed out)

Date	Opponent	Result	Opponent’s value	Tier 1 earned	Opp. Tier 1 points	Opp. games	Counts?
2026-08-21	Stoughton	W	5.5 (D3)	5.50	11.00	9	yes
2026-08-28	Monroe	W	5.5 (D3)	5.50	5.50	9	yes
2026-09-04	DeForest	L	6 (D2)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-09-11	Monona Grove	L	6 (D2)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-09-18	Milton	L	6 (D2)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-09-25	Watertown	W	6 (D2)	6.00	6.50	9	yes
2026-10-02	Waunakee	L	6.5 (D1)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-10-09	Sun Prairie East	L	6.5 (D1)	0.00	—	9	yes
2026-10-16	Sun Prairie West	W	6.5 (D1)	6.50	6.00	9	yes

Tier 1 AVG = 23.50 ÷ 9 = 2.611. Tier 2 points = 11.00 + 5.50 + 6.50 + 6.00 = 29.00; opponents’ games = 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 + 9 = 81; Tier 2 AVG = 29.00 ÷ 81 = 0.358. Total = 2.611 + 9 × 0.358 = 5.83 (Tier 3 tie-break 1.06).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.