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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 5 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 8Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 1:39 PM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Amherst, 98.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 99%8 Wittenberg-Birnamwood4 ChiltonES pick: New Holstein, 69.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 New HolsteinES 70%ES pick: Mayville, 77.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 MayvilleES 77%6 AmeryES pick: Grantsburg, 95.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 GrantsburgES 95%7 TomahawkES pick: Amherst, 95.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 95%5 New Holstein3 MayvilleES pick: Grantsburg, 63.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 GrantsburgES 63%ES pick: Amherst, 77.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 AmherstES 78%2 GrantsburgES pick: Darlington, 98.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 DarlingtonES 99%8 Gale-Ettrick-Trempeal…ES pick: Elk Mound, 81.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Elk MoundES 81%5 ArcadiaES pick: Watertown Luther Prep, 94.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Watertown Lu…ES 94%6 Spencer/Columbus Cath…ES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 99.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Durand-Arkan…ES 100%7 Brookfield Acad.ES pick: Darlington, 93.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 DarlingtonES 94%4 Elk Mound3 Watertown Luther PrepES pick: Durand-Arkansaw, 64.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Durand-Arkan…ES 65%ES pick: Darlington, 92.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 DarlingtonES 93%2 Durand-ArkansawES pick: New Glarus, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New GlarusES 99%8 BloomerES pick: Winnebago Lutheran, 96.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Winnebago Lu…ES 96%5 WestfieldES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 98.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Lake Country…ES 99%6 Ozaukee/Random LakeES pick: Saint Croix Falls, 95.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Saint Croix…ES 96%7 PeshtigoES pick: New Glarus, 86.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New GlarusES 86%4 Winnebago LutheranES pick: Lake Country Lutheran, 56.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Lake Country…ES 56%2 Saint Croix FallsES pick: New Glarus, 62.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 New GlarusES 62%3 Lake Country LutheranES pick: Racine Lutheran, 96.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 96%8 ColumbusES pick: Kiel, 96.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 KielES 96%5 University School of…3 Milwaukee North/Milwa…ES pick: Milwaukee Academy of Science, 97.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Milwaukee Ac…ES 97%ES pick: Brillion, 91.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 BrillionES 91%7 OostburgES pick: Racine Lutheran, 93.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 94%4 Kiel6 Milwaukee Acad. of Sc…ES pick: Brillion, 88.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 BrillionES 88%ES pick: Racine Lutheran, 74.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Racine Luthe…ES 75%2 Brillion1 AmherstES pick: Darlington, 70.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 DarlingtonES 71%State semifinalES pick: New Glarus, 53.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 New GlarusES 54%1 Racine LutheranState semifinalES pick: Darlington, 86.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 DarlingtonES 87%1 New GlarusState final · ES pick: DarlingtonRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 5 · Week 8 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 8. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 8. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 7: in Columbus (35 → 29), Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau (40 → 32) · out East Troy (31 → 37), Northland Pines (32 → 34). Biggest climbs: Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau ▲8, Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning ▲6, Columbus ▲6. Biggest drops: Ozaukee/Random Lake ▼4, Oostburg ▼4, Chilton ▼3.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Racine Lutheran checkRacine26.261-D1 – · 1-D
2–Darlington checkDarlington24.951-B2 – · 1-B
3–Amherst checkAmherst24.081-A3 – · 1-A
4▲1New Glarus checkNew Glarus21.631-C4 – · 1-C
5▼1Durand-Arkansaw checkDurand21.212-B5 – · 2-B
6▲1Grantsburg checkGrantsburg18.912-A7 ▼1 · 2-A
7▼1Saint Croix Falls checkSaint Croix Falls18.632-C6 ▲1 · 2-C
8▲1Brillion checkBrillion16.882-D9 ▼1 · 3-A
9▼1Lake Country Lutheran checkHartland16.533-C8 ▲1 · 2-D
10▲6Milwaukee North/Milwaukee WI Conservatory of Lifelong Learning check16.523-D10 – · 3-D
11–Mayville checkMayville14.363-A12 ▼1 · 3-C
12▲2Watertown Luther Prep checkWatertown12.173-B11 ▲1 · 3-B
13▼3Chilton checkChilton11.984-A14 ▼1 · 4-A
14▲1Elk Mound checkElk Mound11.904-B13 ▲1 · 4-B
15▼3Kiel checkKiel11.634-D16 ▼1 · 4-D
16▼3Winnebago Lutheran checkFond du Lac11.134-C18 ▼2 · 5-C
17–Arcadia checkArcadia10.315-B23 ▼6 · 6-B
18▲3University School of Milwaukee checkMilwaukee9.905-D22 ▼4 · 6-D
19▲1Westfield checkWestfield9.755-C17 ▲2 · 5-B
20▼2New Holstein checkNew Holstein9.715-A15 ▲5 · 4-C
21▲4Milwaukee Academy of Science checkMilwaukee9.536-D19 ▲2 · 5-D
22–Amery checkAmery9.276-A21 ▲1 · 6-C
23▼4Ozaukee/Random Lake check8.696-C26 ▼3 · 7-B
24▲3Spencer/Columbus Catholic check8.276-B25 ▼1 · 7-A
25▲4Peshtigo checkPeshtigo8.027-C20 ▲5 · 5-A
26▼2Tomahawk checkTomahawk7.277-A24 ▲2 · 6-A
27▼4Oostburg checkOostburg7.197-D28 ▼1 · 7-C
28▼2Brookfield Academy checkBrookfield6.277-B27 ▲1 · 7-D
29▲6Columbus checkColumbus6.178-D in32 ▼3 · 8-D
30–Bloomer checkBloomer5.778-C30 – · 8-C
31▼3Wittenberg-Birnamwood checkWittenberg5.638-A31 – · 8-A
32▲8Gale-Ettrick-Trempealeau checkGalesville4.938-B in33 ▼1 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33–Neillsville/Granton checkBelow cut line3.98Below cut line36 ▼3 · Out
34▼2Northland Pines checkBelow cut lineEagle River3.88Below cut line dropped35 ▼1 · Out
35▼1Wautoma checkBelow cut lineWautoma3.87Below cut line37 ▼2 · Out
36▲2Obama SCTE checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee3.81Below cut line34 ▲2 · Out
37▼6East Troy checkBelow cut lineEast Troy3.64Below cut line dropped38 ▼1 · Out
38▲3Dodgeville checkBelow cut lineDodgeville3.52Below cut line29 ▲9 · 8-B projected in
39▼2Kingdom Prep Lutheran checkBelow cut lineWauwatosa2.44Below cut line41 ▼2 · Out
40▼4Parkview/Albany checkBelow cut line2.35Below cut line40 – · Out
41–Richland Center checkBelow cut lineRichland Center1.69Below cut line42 ▼1 · Out
42▼3Spooner checkBelow cut lineSpooner1.63Below cut line43 ▼1 · Out
43T–Omro checkBelow cut lineOmro0.63Below cut line44T ▼1 · Out
43T–Prescott checkBelow cut linePrescott0.63Below cut line44T ▼1 · Out
45T▲1Southwestern/East Dubuque (IL) checkBelow cut line0.56Below cut line39 ▲6 · Out
45T–Sturgeon Bay checkBelow cut lineSturgeon Bay0.56Below cut line46T ▼1 · Out
47T▼1Adams-Friendship checkBelow cut lineAdams0.00Below cut line48T ▼1 · Out
47T▼1Brodhead/Juda checkBelow cut line0.00Below cut line46T ▲1 · Out
47T▼1Clintonville checkBelow cut lineClintonville0.00Below cut line48T ▼1 · Out
47T▼1River Valley checkBelow cut lineSpring Green0.00Below cut line48T ▼1 · Out
47T▼1Viroqua checkBelow cut lineViroqua0.00Below cut line48T ▼1 · Out
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 8 (games through Saturday 2026-10-10). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Ozaukee/Random Lake (rank 23, seed 6)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Kingdom Prep LutheranW4.5 (D5)4.5015.508yes
2026-08-28Living Word LutheranW4 (D6)4.0012.508yes
2026-09-04OostburgL4.5 (D5)0.00—8yes
2026-09-11ReedsvilleW3.5 (D7)3.508.008yes
2026-09-18Manitowoc LutheranL4 (D6)0.00—8yes
2026-09-25Cedar Grove-BelgiumL4 (D6)0.00—8yes
2026-10-01Howards GroveW4 (D6)4.008.008yes
2026-10-09MishicotW4 (D6)4.000.008yes

Tier 1 AVG = 20.00 ÷ 8 = 2.500. Tier 2 points = 15.50 + 12.50 + 8.00 + 8.00 + 0.00 = 44.00; opponents’ games = 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 + 8 = 64; Tier 2 AVG = 44.00 ÷ 64 = 0.688. Total = 2.500 + 9 × 0.688 = 8.69 (Tier 3 tie-break pending verification).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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