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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 4 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 4Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 5:31 PM CDT

  • Final Finished, with the score
  • Ewert’s pick A guess, not a set matchup
ES pick: Little Chute, 94.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little…ES 95%8 XavierEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Seymour, 82.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 SeymourES 83%5 RiponEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Lake Mills, 77.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Lake M…ES 77%6 Lakeside Lut…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Evansville, 86.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Evansv…ES 87%7 BerlinEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Little Chute, 98.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little…ES 99%4 SeymourEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Lake Mills, 79.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Lake M…ES 80%2 EvansvilleEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Little Chute, 85.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Little…ES 85%3 Lake MillsEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Northwestern, 98.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Northw…ES 99%8 MarinetteEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Platteville, 94.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 Platte…ES 95%5 JeffersonEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Aquinas, 94.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 AquinasES 94%6 Oconto FallsEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: West Salem, 98.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West S…ES 98%7 AshlandEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Northwestern, 88.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Northw…ES 89%4 PlattevilleEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK3 AquinasES pick: West Salem, 83.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West S…ES 84%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK1 NorthwesternES pick: West Salem, 59.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 West S…ES 59%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Stratford, 85.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Stratf…ES 85%8 LodiEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK4 EdgertonES pick: Saint Francis, 52.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Saint…ES 52%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK3 KohlerES pick: Wrightstown, 88.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Wright…ES 89%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Edgewood, 98.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Edgewo…ES 99%7 MaustonEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Stratford, 94.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Stratf…ES 95%5 Saint FrancisEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK6 WrightstownES pick: Edgewood, 62.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Edgewo…ES 62%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Stratford, 60.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Stratf…ES 60%2 EdgewoodEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Freedom, 100.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Freed…ES 100%8 Big FootEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Denmark, 94.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 DenmarkES 95%5 Two RiversEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICK3 Shoreland Lu…ES pick: Racine St. Catherine's, 84.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Racine…ES 85%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Delavan-Darien, 87.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Delava…ES 87%7 TurnerEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Freedom, 99.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 99%4 DenmarkEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Racine St. Catherine's, 63.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Racine…ES 64%2 Delavan-Dari…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Freedom, 96.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 FreedomES 96%6 Racine St. C…EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKES pick: Little Chute, 63.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 Little…ES 64%2 West SalemEWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState semifinal1 StratfordES pick: Freedom, 92.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 FreedomES 93%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState semifinal1 Little ChuteES pick: Freedom, 71.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 FreedomES 71%EWERT’S PICKEWERT’S PICKState final · ES pick: FreedomRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Division 4 · Week 4 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 4. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 4. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 3: in Lakeside Lutheran (37 → 21), Turner (41 → 28), Xavier (35 → 30), Big Foot (33 → 32) · out Black River Falls (26 → 38), Osceola (30 → 35), Wisconsin Dells (30 → 36), Somerset (30 → 39). Biggest climbs: Evansville ▲22, Lakeside Lutheran ▲16, Shoreland Lutheran ▲13. Biggest drops: Marinette ▼13, Jefferson ▼11, Wrightstown ▼10.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–Freedom checkFreedom34.661-D1 – · 1-A
2–Little Chute checkLittle Chute24.661-A4 ▼2 · 1-B
3▲1Northwestern checkMaple22.881-B6 ▼3 · 2-A
4▼1Stratford checkStratford22.781-C7 ▼3 · 2-B
5–West Salem checkWest Salem22.562-B5 – · 2-C
6▲22Evansville checkEvansville16.282-A17 ▼11 · 5-B
7–Edgewood checkMadison15.812-C8 ▼1 · 2-D
8▲3Delavan-Darien checkDelavan14.472-D11 ▼3 · 3-D
9▲3Aquinas checkLa Crosse13.343-B10 ▼1 · 3-C
10▼4Kohler checkKohler13.093-C39 ▼29 · Out projected out
11▲13Shoreland Lutheran checkKenosha12.503-D19 ▼8 · 5-D
12▼4Lake Mills checkLake Mills12.193-A2 ▲10 · 1-C
13▲10Edgerton checkEdgerton11.504-C29 ▼16 · 8-C
14▲7Platteville checkPlatteville10.694-B15 ▼1 · 4-B
15▼1Denmark checkDenmark10.194-D31 ▼16 · 8-A
16▼6Seymour checkSeymour9.224-A25 ▼9 · 7-B
17▼2Two Rivers checkTwo Rivers8.845-D44 ▼27 · Out projected out
18▲1Saint Francis checkSaint Francis8.715-C14 ▲4 · 4-D
19▼11Jefferson checkJefferson8.255-B40 ▼21 · Out projected out
20▲2Ripon checkRipon8.165-A26 ▼6 · 7-D
21▲16Lakeside Lutheran checkLake Mills8.136-A in16 ▲5 · 4-C
22▼2Oconto Falls checkOconto Falls7.166-B34 ▼12 · Out projected out
23▼10Wrightstown checkWrightstown6.886-C23 – · 6-B
24▼8Racine St. Catherine's checkRacine6.726-D3 ▲21 · 1-D
25T–Berlin checkBerlin6.637-A18 ▲7 · 5-C
25T▲1Mauston checkMauston6.637-C20 ▲5 · 5-A
27▼10Ashland checkAshland6.347-B22 ▲5 · 6-A
28▲13Turner checkBeloit6.037-D in30 ▼2 · 8-D
29–Lodi checkLodi5.598-C13 ▲16 · 4-A
30▲5Xavier checkAppleton5.448-A in21 ▲9 · 6-C
31▼13Marinette checkMarinette4.718-B38 ▼7 · Out projected out
32▲1Big Foot checkWalworth4.558-D in43 ▼11 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▲4Kewaskum checkBelow cut lineKewaskum3.78Below cut line33 – · Out
34▲7Campbellsport checkBelow cut lineCampbellsport3.66Below cut line24 ▲10 · 6-D projected in
35▼5Osceola checkBelow cut lineOsceola3.63Below cut line dropped9 ▲26 · 3-A projected in
36▼6Wisconsin Dells checkBelow cut lineWisconsin Dells3.50Below cut line dropped28 ▲8 · 7-C projected in
37▼3Fuller Collegiate Academy checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee3.33Below cut line12 ▲25 · 3-B projected in
38▼12Black River Falls checkBelow cut lineBlack River Falls2.97Below cut line dropped32 ▲6 · 8-B projected in
39▼9Somerset checkBelow cut lineSomerset2.38Below cut line dropped27 ▲12 · 7-A projected in
40▼5Mosinee checkBelow cut lineMosinee1.38Below cut line47 ▼7 · Out
41▼4Milwaukee School of Languages checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee1.25Below cut line46 ▼5 · Out
42▼2Whitewater checkBelow cut lineWhitewater0.88Below cut line45 ▼3 · Out
43T▼2Altoona checkBelow cut lineAltoona0.00Below cut line37 ▲6 · Out
43T▼2Brown Deer checkBelow cut lineBrown Deer0.00Below cut line41 ▲2 · Out
43T▼2Ellsworth checkBelow cut lineEllsworth0.00Below cut line48T ▼5 · Out
43T▼2North Fond du Lac checkBelow cut lineNorth Fond du Lac0.00Below cut line48T ▼5 · Out
43T▼2Saint Croix Central checkBelow cut lineHammond0.00Below cut line42 ▲1 · Out
43T▼2Saint Thomas More checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line35 ▲8 · Out
43T▼2Sheboygan Falls checkBelow cut lineSheboygan Falls0.00Below cut line48T ▼5 · Out
43T▼2Waupun checkBelow cut lineWaupun0.00Below cut line36 ▲7 · Out
—Milwaukee Madison checkMilwaukee0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 4 (games through Saturday 2026-09-12). 32 of 50 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: Two Rivers (rank 17, seed 5)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21MarinetteL5 (D4)0.00—4yes
2026-08-28RiponW5 (D4)5.0013.504yes
2026-09-04Saint Mary CatholicL4 (D6)0.00—4yes
2026-09-10RoncalliL3.5 (D7)0.00—4yes

Tier 1 AVG = 5.00 ÷ 4 = 1.250. Tier 2 points = 13.50 = 13.50; opponents’ games = 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 16; Tier 2 AVG = 13.50 ÷ 16 = 0.844. Total = 1.250 + 9 × 0.844 = 8.84 (Tier 3 tie-break 4.78).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Confirmed matchups in the bracket open game pages; team pages are linked in the field table and on each game page.

WIAA Football Playoff Brackets: Official and Projected | Ewert Sports | Ewert Sports