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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 3 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 5Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Wed, Oct 21 · 6:09 PM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Port Washington, 95.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port Washing…ES 96%8 MerrillES pick: Portage, 72.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 PortageES 72%5 RhinelanderES pick: New Berlin West, 68.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 New Berlin W…ES 68%6 Catholic MemorialES pick: Plymouth, 99.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 PlymouthES 99%7 Pius XI CatholicES pick: Port Washington, 96.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Port Washing…ES 96%4 PortageES pick: New Berlin West, 64.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 New Berlin W…ES 64%2 Plymouth1 Port WashingtonES pick: New Berlin West, 57.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 New Berlin W…ES 58%ES pick: Reedsburg, 96.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ReedsburgES 97%8 Sparta4 Mount Horeb/BarneveldES pick: Baldwin-Woodville, 73.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Baldwin-Wood…ES 74%3 WinneconneES pick: Onalaska, 51.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 OnalaskaES 51%ES pick: La Crosse Logan, 91.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Crosse Lo…ES 91%7 GreendaleES pick: Reedsburg, 50.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 ReedsburgES 51%5 Baldwin-Woodville6 OnalaskaES pick: La Crosse Logan, 74.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Crosse Lo…ES 74%1 ReedsburgES pick: La Crosse Logan, 57.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 La Crosse Lo…ES 57%ES pick: Pewaukee, 99.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PewaukeeES 99%8 McFarlandES pick: Waterford, 86.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 WaterfordES 87%5 Kettle Moraine Luther…ES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 87.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Valley L…ES 88%6 Sauk PrairieES pick: Medford, 94.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 MedfordES 94%7 Wauwatosa WestES pick: Pewaukee, 85.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PewaukeeES 85%4 WaterfordES pick: Fox Valley Lutheran, 53.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Fox Valley L…ES 54%2 MedfordES pick: Pewaukee, 78.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 PewaukeeES 79%3 Fox Valley LutheranES pick: Whitefish Bay, 95.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Whitefish BayES 95%8 Waukesha North4 Milwaukee LutheranES pick: Luxemburg-Casco, 87.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Luxemburg-Ca…ES 87%3 New Berlin EisenhowerES pick: Wisconsin Lutheran, 51.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Wisconsin Lu…ES 51%2 Milwaukee Bay ViewES pick: South Milwaukee, 75.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.7 South Milwau…ES 75%ES pick: Whitefish Bay, 60.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Whitefish BayES 60%5 Luxemburg-CascoES pick: Wisconsin Lutheran, 98.1% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.6 Wisconsin Lu…ES 98%7 South MilwaukeeES pick: Whitefish Bay, 75.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Whitefish BayES 75%6 Wisconsin LutheranES pick: New Berlin West, 53.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.3 New Berlin W…ES 53%2 La Crosse LoganState semifinalES pick: Pewaukee, 81.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 PewaukeeES 81%1 Whitefish BayState semifinal3 New Berlin WestES pick: Pewaukee, 62.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-21T04:54:06.012Z; assumed venue: neutral.1 PewaukeeES 63%State final · ES pick: PewaukeeRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 3 · Week 5 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 5. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 5. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 4: in Wauwatosa West (44 → 28), McFarland (37 → 29) · out Green Bay West (28 → 33), New London (31 → 35). Biggest climbs: Wauwatosa West ▲16, Baldwin-Woodville ▲12, New Berlin West ▲9. Biggest drops: Portage ▼8, Rhinelander ▼8, Waukesha North ▼8.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1▲1Pewaukee checkPewaukee29.721-C1 – · 1-C
2▲1Port Washington checkPort Washington25.421-A2 – · 1-A
3▼2Reedsburg checkReedsburg24.941-B7 ▼4 · 2-C
4–Whitefish Bay checkWhitefish Bay23.681-D5 ▼1 · 2-D
5▲2La Crosse Logan checkLa Crosse22.342-B3 ▲2 · 1-B
6▲8Milwaukee Bay View checkMilwaukee21.962-DExcluded
7▲5Medford checkMedford21.582-C8 ▼1 · 2-B
8▼2Plymouth checkPlymouth21.262-A10 ▼2 · 3-A
9▲4New Berlin Eisenhower checkNew Berlin19.963-D9 – · 3-C
10▲9New Berlin West checkNew Berlin19.463-A4 ▲6 · 1-D
11▼2Fox Valley Lutheran checkAppleton17.843-C11 – · 3-B
12▼4Winneconne checkWinneconne16.003-B6 ▲6 · 2-A
13▼8Portage checkPortage15.524-A18 ▼5 · 5-C
14▼3Milwaukee Lutheran checkMilwaukee15.364-D21 ▼7 · 6-D
15▲8Waterford checkWaterford14.144-C13 ▲2 · 4-C
16▲5Mount Horeb/Barneveld check12.744-B14 ▲2 · 4-B
17▲12Baldwin-Woodville checkBaldwin12.545-B17 – · 5-B
18▼8Rhinelander checkRhinelander12.485-A23 ▼5 · 6-B
19▲1Kettle Moraine Lutheran checkJackson12.185-C22 ▼3 · 6-C
20▼3Luxemburg-Casco checkLuxemburg11.285-D15 ▲5 · 4-A
21▼5Catholic Memorial checkWaukesha11.066-A20 ▲1 · 5-D
22▼7Sauk Prairie checkPrairie du Sac11.046-C25 ▼3 · 7-C
23▼5Wisconsin Lutheran checkMilwaukee10.586-D12 ▲11 · 3-D
24▲2Onalaska checkOnalaska10.306-B24 – · 6-A
25▲5Greendale checkGreendale9.447-B16 ▲9 · 4-D
26▼2South Milwaukee checkSouth Milwaukee9.187-D31 ▼5 · 8-A
27▼2Pius XI Catholic checkMilwaukee8.497-A32 ▼5 · 8-C
28▲16Wauwatosa West checkWauwatosa7.867-C in33 ▼5 · Out projected out
29▲8McFarland checkMcFarland7.328-C in28 ▲1 · 7-A
30▼8Waukesha North checkWaukesha7.048-D29 ▲1 · 8-B
31▲1Merrill checkMerrill6.768-A19 ▲12 · 5-A
32▼5Sparta checkSparta5.888-B35 ▼3 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼5Green Bay West checkBelow cut lineGreen Bay4.90Below cut line dropped27 ▲6 · 7-B projected in
34▲6Martin Luther checkBelow cut lineGreendale4.26Below cut line34 – · Out
35▼4New London checkBelow cut lineNew London4.18Below cut line dropped38 ▼3 · Out
36▼2Wilmot Union checkBelow cut lineWilmot3.50Below cut line26 ▲10 · 7-D projected in
37▼4Monroe checkBelow cut lineMonroe3.44Below cut line42 ▼5 · Out
38▼3Stoughton checkBelow cut lineStoughton3.08Below cut line41 ▼3 · Out
39▼3Shawano checkBelow cut lineShawano3.08Below cut line39 – · Out
40▼2Lakeland checkBelow cut lineMinocqua2.72Below cut line36 ▲4 · Out
41▼2Hayward/Lac Courte Oreilles checkBelow cut line2.34Below cut line37 ▲4 · Out
42▼1Fort Atkinson checkBelow cut lineFort Atkinson1.30Below cut line43 ▼1 · Out
43▼1Baraboo checkBelow cut lineBaraboo1.10Below cut line40 ▲3 · Out
44▼1Cudahy checkBelow cut lineCudahy0.70Below cut line44 – · Out
45T▼1Antigo checkBelow cut lineAntigo0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▼1Milwaukee Vincent checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▼1Milwaukee Washington checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee0.00Below cut lineExcluded
45T▼1Tomah checkBelow cut lineTomah0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▼1Waupaca checkBelow cut lineWaupaca0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▼1West Bend East checkBelow cut lineWest Bend0.00Below cut line45T – · Out
45T▼1Whitnall checkBelow cut lineGreenfield0.00Below cut line30 ▲15 · 8-D projected in
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/20/26, 11:54 PM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 5 (games through Saturday 2026-09-19). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: West Bend East (rank 45T, seed out)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-21Waukesha SouthL6 (D2)0.00—5yes
2026-08-28Sheboygan NorthL6.5 (D1)0.00—5yes
2026-09-04GraftonL6 (D2)0.00—5yes
2026-09-11PlymouthL (forfeit)5.5 (D3)0.00—5yes. Forfeit loss.
2026-09-18Kettle Moraine LutheranL5.5 (D3)0.00—5yes

Tier 1 AVG = 0.00 ÷ 5 = 0.000. Tier 2 points = 0 = 0.00; opponents’ games = 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 25; Tier 2 AVG = 0.00 ÷ 25 = 0.000. Total = 0.000 + 9 × 0.000 = 0.00.

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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