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Playoff Bracket · Football Division 1 UNOFFICIAL

Ewert projection through week 5Ewert’s picks: week 9 ratings, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM CentralField table · How it works

Bracket and table computed Thu, Oct 22 · 2:40 PM CDT

Full boardRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion DFinal fourEwert’s picks: dashed, italic slots are our prediction model’s guess at who advances. ES percentages label our picked winners. These are guesses; confirmed results take precedence.

Green scores or Final/Award labels mark confirmed advancement. Dashed slots are imagined participants. Held, conflicting or incomplete results remain unresolved.

ES pick: Bay Port, 98.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 99%8 HortonvilleES pick: Middleton, 74.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 MiddletonES 74%5 Wausau WestES pick: Stevens Point Area Senior High, 51.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Stevens Poin…ES 52%6 Chippewa FallsES pick: Appleton North, 92.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 Appleton Nor…ES 92%7 Appleton WestES pick: Bay Port, 97.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 98%4 MiddletonES pick: Stevens Point Area Senior High, 70.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Stevens Poin…ES 71%2 Appleton NorthES pick: Bay Port, 92.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 Bay PortES 92%3 Stevens Point Area Se…ES pick: Hamilton, 94.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HamiltonES 94%8 Fond du LacES pick: Franklin, 87.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 FranklinES 88%5 De PereES pick: Kenosha Bradford, 99.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Kenosha Brad…ES 100%6 Milwaukee Hamilton/Au…ES pick: Muskego, 99.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 MuskegoES 100%7 Milwaukee Bradley Tec…ES pick: Hamilton, 73.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 HamiltonES 74%4 Franklin3 Kenosha BradfordES pick: Muskego, 94.4% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 MuskegoES 94%1 HamiltonES pick: Muskego, 63.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 MuskegoES 64%ES pick: Oconomowoc, 97.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 OconomowocES 97%8 Janesville Parker4 Indian Trail & Acad.ES pick: Madison Memorial, 52.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.5 Madison Memo…ES 52%ES pick: Racine Case, 99.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 Racine CaseES 100%6 Milwaukee Pulaski/Car…ES pick: Arrowhead, 99.5% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ArrowheadES 100%7 Green Bay PrebleES pick: Oconomowoc, 94.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 OconomowocES 95%5 Madison Memorial3 Racine CaseES pick: Arrowhead, 83.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ArrowheadES 84%1 OconomowocES pick: Arrowhead, 81.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 ArrowheadES 82%ES pick: West De Pere, 93.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 93%8 KimberlyES pick: Marquette, 92.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.4 MarquetteES 92%5 D.C. EverestES pick: Verona, 80.0% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.3 VeronaES 80%6 Sun Prairie EastES pick: Waunakee, 81.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 WaunakeeES 82%7 HudsonES pick: West De Pere, 84.9% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 85%4 Marquette3 VeronaES pick: Waunakee, 84.6% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.2 WaunakeeES 85%ES pick: West De Pere, 58.2% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: higher-seed home.1 West De PereES 58%2 Waunakee1 Bay PortES pick: Muskego, 70.7% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 MuskegoES 71%State semifinalES pick: Arrowhead, 68.8% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 ArrowheadES 69%1 West De PereState semifinalES pick: Muskego, 56.3% win chance. Ratings calculated 2026-10-22T10:39:07.507Z; assumed venue: neutral.2 MuskegoES 56%2 ArrowheadState final · ES pick: MuskegoRegion ARegion BRegion CRegion D

Team labels open team pages. Hover or focus a team to trace its path.

WIAA has released its bracket for this field. See the official bracket →

Division 1 · Week 5 field and cut line

Table-only view →

The table uses reported results through Week 5. Projected Final shows our latest forecast, based on reported Week 9 results plus the remaining ES picks; arrows compare it with this table. This is today’s forecast, not a saved forecast from Week 5. UNOFFICIAL · partial: unresolved games or opponent data can change these placements.

Since week 4: in Milwaukee Bradley Tech/Milwaukee Arts (35 → 27), Kimberly (36 → 30), Fond du Lac (34 → 32) · out Kenosha Tremper (30 → 37), Brookfield East (31 → 40), Milwaukee Reagan (32 → 33). Biggest climbs: Stevens Point Area Senior High ▲8, Milwaukee Bradley Tech/Milwaukee Arts ▲8, Verona ▲6. Biggest drops: Madison Memorial ▼7, De Pere ▼6, Hortonville ▼6.

No future qualifying games remain. This is a comparison of the current qualifying results, not a new forecast; unresolved results or opponent data still affect the comparison.

Rank+/−TeamCityW-LTotalTier 1 AVGTier 2 AVGTier 2 WinsProjected SeedProjected Final Seed
Rank · Seed · Partial
1–West De Pere checkDe Pere42.581-D1 – · 1-D
2–Bay Port checkGreen Bay38.521-A3 ▼1 · 1-A
3▲2Hamilton checkSussex33.481-B2 ▲1 · 1-B
4▲2Oconomowoc checkOconomowoc32.181-C11 ▼7 · 3-B
5▼2Muskego checkMuskego27.402-B4 ▲1 · 1-C
6▼2Arrowhead checkHartland26.542-C5 ▲1 · 2-B
7–Appleton North checkAppleton25.622-A22 ▼15 · 6-A
8▲1Waunakee checkWaunakee23.002-D6 ▲2 · 2-A
9▲8Stevens Point Area Senior High checkStevens Point22.723-A9 – · 3-A
10▲6Verona checkVerona21.043-D8 ▲2 · 2-D
11▲1Racine Case checkRacine20.843-C7 ▲4 · 2-C
12▼4Kenosha Bradford checkKenosha20.763-B14 ▼2 · 4-C
13▼3Indian Trail High School & Academy checkKenosha20.664-C12 ▲1 · 3-C
14–Franklin checkFranklin19.464-B20 ▼6 · 5-C
15▲3Marquette checkMilwaukee17.464-D16 ▼1 · 4-D
16▲3Middleton checkMiddleton17.404-A21 ▼5 · 6-B
17▼6De Pere checkDe Pere17.225-B18 ▼1 · 5-A
18▲3D.C. Everest checkSchofield17.025-D28 ▼10 · 7-A
19▼4Wausau West checkWausau15.885-A30 ▼11 · 8-A
20▼7Madison Memorial checkMadison13.645-C19 ▲1 · 5-D
21▲4Chippewa Falls checkChippewa Falls12.626-A23 ▼2 · 6-D
22▲5Milwaukee Hamilton/Audubon Technology check12.546-B32 ▼10 · 8-C
23▼3Sun Prairie East checkSun Prairie12.526-D26 ▼3 · 7-D
24–Milwaukee Pulaski/Carmen Southgate check12.506-C17 ▲7 · 5-B
25▲4Green Bay Preble checkGreen Bay12.127-C35 ▼10 · Out projected out
26▼4Hudson checkHudson11.567-D10 ▲16 · 3-D
27▲8Milwaukee Bradley Tech/Milwaukee Arts check10.667-B in24 ▲3 · 6-C
28▼2Appleton West checkAppleton10.267-A41 ▼13 · Out projected out
29▼6Hortonville checkHortonville10.248-A33 ▼4 · Out projected out
30▲6Kimberly checkKimberly9.448-D in29 ▲1 · 8-D
31▼3Janesville Parker checkJanesville9.448-C31 – · 8-B
32▲2Fond du Lac checkFond du Lac8.308-B in36 ▼4 · Out projected out
Cut line · the top 32 qualify
33▼1Milwaukee Reagan checkBelow cut lineMilwaukee7.20Below cut line dropped15 ▲18 · 4-B projected in
34▲2Neenah checkBelow cut lineNeenah7.10Below cut line13 ▲21 · 4-A projected in
35▼2Janesville Craig checkBelow cut lineJanesville7.00Below cut line34 ▲1 · Out
36▲8Sheboygan North checkBelow cut lineSheboygan5.84Below cut line45 ▼9 · Out
37▼7Kenosha Tremper checkBelow cut lineKenosha5.70Below cut line dropped47 ▼10 · Out
38▲1Appleton East checkBelow cut lineAppleton5.62Below cut line46 ▼8 · Out
39▲4Oshkosh West checkBelow cut lineOshkosh5.52Below cut line27 ▲12 · 7-B projected in
40▼9Brookfield East checkBelow cut lineBrookfield5.29Below cut line dropped40 – · Out
41▲1Madison West checkBelow cut lineMadison5.08Below cut line43 ▼2 · Out
42▲4Madison La Follette checkBelow cut lineMadison4.84Below cut line38 ▲4 · Out
43▼2Milwaukee Riverside/Golda Meir checkBelow cut line4.75Below cut line25 ▲18 · 7-C projected in
44▲2Oak Creek checkBelow cut lineOak Creek4.74Below cut line37 ▲7 · Out
45▼7Sun Prairie West checkBelow cut lineSun Prairie3.54Below cut line49 ▼4 · Out
46▼6Mukwonago checkBelow cut lineMukwonago3.46Below cut line48 ▼2 · Out
47▼2Eau Claire North checkBelow cut lineEau Claire1.30Below cut line39 ▲8 · Out
48▼2Badger checkBelow cut lineLake Geneva1.20Below cut line42 ▲6 · Out
49T–Eau Claire Memorial checkBelow cut lineEau Claire0.00Below cut line50T ▼1 · Out
49T–Madison East checkBelow cut lineMadison0.00Below cut line50T ▼1 · Out
49T–Manitowoc Lincoln checkBelow cut lineManitowoc0.00Below cut line44 ▲5 · Out
—Shorewood checkShorewood0.00ExcludedExcluded
—Northwood/Solon Springs checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified
—Winter/Birchwood checkProgram eligibility not verified0-0————UnverifiedUnverified

Ewert’s picks are guesses. Hypothetical playoff winners use the current ES model and rated snapshots, not seeds. Early rounds assume the higher seed hosts; state semifinals and final assume a neutral site. No new games, results or forecasts are saved. ES basis: week 9, 10/22/26, 5:39 AM Central. Missing or near-even inputs remain TBD.

Wisconsin programs continue below the cut line in the same table. Eligibility notes use the published WIAA record; where it does not identify the reason, we say so. A three-year enrollment average above 200 can have a second-year commitment exception.

About this projection

Unofficial projection. Seeds come from the unofficial playoff matrix above (WIAA’s formula on the results we hold, 2026 regulations). Regions and Level 1 pairings follow the regulations’ travel rules with an approximation: straight-line miles between school ZIP centroids instead of WIAA’s travel distances, so a region letter or a pairing near the margin can differ. Slots: projected from the unofficial matrix; not WIAA's published bracket. Through week 5 (games through Saturday 2026-09-19). 32 of 51 in the field.

How WIAA builds the bracket, and how to check a team

  1. Tier 1 points. Every win earns points set by the team you beat: Division 1 = 6.5, D2 = 6.0, D3 = 5.5, D4 = 5.0, D5 = 4.5, D6 = 4.0, D7 = 3.5. A tie earns half. A loss earns nothing. A forfeit win earns the full value. Tier 1 AVG = Tier 1 points ÷ games played (at most 9).
  2. Tier 2 points. Add up their Tier 1 points for every team you beat (a team you tied is not beaten and adds no points). Opponents’ games = the games played by every team you played, won, lost or tied, added together (each counted up to 9). Tier 2 AVG = Tier 2 points ÷ opponents’ games, and the Tier 2 score is 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s rule: “Divide Tier 2 points by opponents’ games played and multiply by 9 (this is a 100% bonus to the Strength of Victory) to get the Tier 2 score.”
  3. Total (PQS) = Tier 1 AVG + 9 × Tier 2 AVG. WIAA’s own example: Franklin 2024, 56.0 ÷ 9 + 228.5 ÷ 81 × 9 = 31.61. Ties in Total are broken by Tier 3, the average of the Tier 2 scores of the teams you beat.
  4. Replacement games. If a team replaced a forfeit win with a new game that week, the forfeit counts when the replacement was lost; when it was won, whichever is worth more counts (regulations 3h). WIAA prints such games as “Seeding Only”. When you beat a team in its replacement game, your Tier 2 points count that team’s Tier 1 points without the forfeit win it kept that week.
  5. Field and seeds. Teams are ranked inside their division by Total. The top 32 qualify after Week 9. Ranks 1–4 are the #1 seeds, 5–8 the #2 seeds, and so on to #8. The four #1 seeds anchor four regions: the #1- and #4-ranked go to one half of the state bracket, #2 and #3 to the other. #2 seeds join the nearest #1 seed, #3 and #4 seeds their likely second-round opponents, and #5–#8 are placed by the shortest total travel. Level 1 is #8 at #1, #5 at #4, #7 at #2 and #6 at #3 in each region.

Worked example: West De Pere (rank 1, seed 1)

DateOpponentResultOpponent’s valueTier 1 earnedOpp. Tier 1 pointsOpp. gamesCounts?
2026-08-20Sun Prairie EastW6.5 (D1)6.5018.505yes
2026-08-27Appleton NorthW6.5 (D1)6.5025.505yes
2026-09-04De PereW6.5 (D1)6.5019.505yes
2026-09-11AshwaubenonW6 (D2)6.0019.005yes
2026-09-17Appleton WestW6.5 (D1)6.5018.005yes

Tier 1 AVG = 32.00 ÷ 5 = 6.400. Tier 2 points = 18.50 + 25.50 + 19.50 + 19.00 + 18.00 = 100.50; opponents’ games = 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 = 25; Tier 2 AVG = 100.50 ÷ 25 = 4.020. Total = 6.400 + 9 × 4.020 = 42.58 (Tier 3 tie-break 11.59).

To check another team’s numbers, open its row’s “check” link in the tables above. Team labels in the bracket open team pages.

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